저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거의 '잃어버린 10년' 경고(향후 10년 주식 실질수익률 저조)를 소개하는 해설 영상이다. [멍거 경력·투자철학] 멍거는 버핏의 파트너로 가치투자 원칙을 정립했고, 초기에는 버핏의 투자관을 '적정가격의 우량기업' 쪽으로 바꾸게 했다고 소개된다. 멍거는 집중투자(분산 최소화)가 더 나은 수익을 준다고 본다. [잃어버린 10년 주장] 멍거는 향후 10년 주식시장 수익률이 과거 10년보다 낮을 것이라 본다. 실질수익률(세금·인플레 반영)이 특히 낮아진다는 점을 강조한다. 근거: 투자자 과열, 경영진 보상체계 문제, 연준의 대규모 통화 공급, 역사적으로 낮은 금리에 따른 높은 밸류에이션. [근거 수치] 미국 가계의 55% 이상이 주식을 보유(2020년 기준). S&P500은 최근 12년간 500% 이상 상승. 연준은 3개월간 약 3조 달러를 찍어냈고 현재 유통 달러의 40% 이상이 2021년 이후 발행된 것으로 언급. 인플레이션은 약 7%(1년 전 기준)로 40년 만의 최고치라고 설명. [정책·시장 리스크] 트럼프 행정부의 법인세 인하(35%→15%)를 현 정부가 되돌리려 해 실질수익률을 낮출 것이라는 논리. 금리 인상으로 유동성이 줄면 자산가격에 반영될 것이라 전망. 애플(2조 달러 이상), 마이크로소프트, 아마존 등 대형 기술주 고평가 우려, 지수 쏠림 심화, 조정 필요성 언급. [언급 종목·방향] 나스닥: 거품 가능성 언급(붕괴 시점은 불확실). 구체적 매수·매도 추천 없음. [조건·대응] 혁신 기업(파괴자 가능성)과 식품·운송·물류 등 필수 산업 기업의 균형 선택을 권고. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 멍거 주장이 설득력 있다고 보지만, 개인 투자자는 현재 상황과 사실에 기반해 시장 가정을 세우라고 조언.
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charlie munger is regarded as one of the sharpest investment minds of the 20th century he is best known as warren buffett's right hand man outback sheer hathaway one of the moguls of wall street and the financial world munger's reputation has stood the test of time due to his ability to get to the heart of a problem and his determination to think and dissect complex financial problems using common sense manga is a value investor first and foremost someone looking for companies that hold the potential to increase in value in the long term he considers anyone who follows the strategy a smart investor now it is worth mentioning that during the initial days at berkshire hathaway munga's definition of value investing differed significantly from buffets few know this but this genius's influence pushed buffett to change his investment thesis to look for companies at a fair price their value proposition was simple and fitting alongside looking for companies with potential upside over the long term their strategy was also entailing looking for companies that are in some temporary trouble that has led to a dip in their share value but have strong trends of bouncing back also he thinks that there's no meat in excess diversification a well-researched concentrated portfolio will always lead to better returns now before i jump into today's video i want to thank the daily upside for partnering with my channel the daily upside is a free business and finance newsletter that i use every single morning to help get an edge on the latest business news check out the link down below in the bio to subscribe for free now these rules of thumb eventually became the cornerstone principles of berkshire hathaway during that buffet among the reign the company turned profits worth a giant two million percent on its investment value a whopping twenty thousand dollars for every one dollar invested it's hard to digest but these two stalwarts accomplish this feat through the simple art of identifying quality companies without borrowing dangerous amounts of debt buffett once famously said one plus one with charlie and me surely adds up to more than two charlie munger was trained as a meteorologist during world war ii and as a lawyer at harvard before devoting his life to business his fluid thought process and multidisciplinary personality have enabled him to successfully run the show at berkshire hathaway and a range of commercial and philanthropic endeavors he's been a student of psychology economics physics biology and history among other disciplines a deliberate effort to expand his range of expertise observe the world in a better way and constantly challenge his mindsets not surprisingly to this day at the age of 27 he uses this wealth of knowledge to develop mental models to cut through complicated problems in complex social systems one of the most critical lessons manga preaches is studying the investing environment being aware of everything that's happening in the government from the federal reserve to politics according to him it's one of the best fundamental instincts a novice investor can cultivate with benefits that are lifelong if you ask me though it's far easier said than done to actually follow through with this advice today gen z's and millennials are demanding assets with shorter maturities and higher yields and rightly so why wouldn't they imagine being an 18 year old who looks around and sees his friends bagging millions of dollars after selling images of apes on the internet the evolution of blockchain and crypto is so nancy and powerful and everyone wants to ride the wave but the danger arises when investors attach similar expectations to the equity markets it certainly seems like herd mentality is on the rise each passing day and i bet that benjamin graham is turning in his grave back in that same sentiment charlie munger brings terrible news to the table in a recent interview with caltech he warns us about entering a lost decade you expect the next 10 years to have lower returns in the equity markets than the last 10.
it doesn't give us an idea why the answer is yes could you give us a hint as to why that might sound great yes because so many people are in it and the frenzy is so great and the systems of management the reward systems are so foolish that that i don't think it's going to work at all i don't think i think the returns will go down yes in real terms the returns will be lower so what exactly is a monger's infamous lost decade well it's a phase where equity returns over the next decade will be pretty much stagnant he explains i don't think we want the whole world trying to get rich by outsmarting the rest of the world but that's what's happened there have been frenzies of speculation and so on it's been very interesting but it's not been all good munger claims that there is chaos in the investment field and that investors these days are hell-bent on outsmarting one another due to which returns in the next 10 years are likely to take a beating his reasons for this are unprecedented levels of investor enthusiasm and participation in the markets poor incentive systems for management teams obscene amounts of money printing by the federal reserve and historically negligible interest rates leading to sky-high valuations now really quickly before i go any further i want to thank the daily upside for partnering with me on this video they are a free business and investing newsletter that over 200 000 people subscribed to myself included the daily upside was founded by a team of former investment bankers scholars and journalists with the intention to provide clarity and color to help investors sift through the noise of the financial new space instead of pushing clickbait financial headlines and bias coverage the traditional outlets have gotten used to the daily upside provides actionable insights and clarity on the stories shaping the business world every weekday they deliver a morning brief followed by more detailed stories that are shaping the business world i started reading the daily upside at three or four months ago and now it has become the first thing i read when i wake up in the morning it's about a five minute read that isn't afraid to dive deep into hot topics and give real high level unbiased analysis with the occasional dose of wit to keep things interesting recently i've even been enjoying their weekend edition newsletter that goes a level deeper into niche industries as someone who looks to stay on top of the news to help create videos like this i can't recommend the daily upside enough click the link in my bio and join the 200 000 other people that read the daily upside every morning it's free and if you don't love it you can always unsubscribe now let's dig deep into these reasons one by one as of 2020 over 55 percent of all families in the us have some sort of holding in the stock market due to retail investors discussing investment techniques on social media we've witnessed insanely high inflows into meme stocks like u.s video game retailer gamestop and of course amc technology deserves its fair share of credit for increasing the number of young investors as they continue to flock to easy to use stock broken platforms which are significantly reducing barriers to entering the market it's fair to say that everybody whether or not they have an understanding of the market wants in right now in the past decade we've witnessed one of the most fruitful bull rallies in the market since the last crash 12 years ago since then the s p 500 has rallied over 500 percent and understandably everyone wants to partake as more and more people swarm to the markets its value keeps increasing disproportionately this isn't the first time we're witnessing something like this our predicament is similar to what was happening in the 1920s famously referred to as the roaring twenties investor optimism was at its zenith when ford motor company had just started selling its latest state-of-the-art model t and everybody wanted to invest at the turn of 1929 valuations were red-hot and investors started pulling out of their investments which led to a sharp fall in the market which only recovered three long decades later in the year 1959.
unfortunately a lot of people who are invested in the market barely know what they've signed up for and when things go south they panic and end up seeing losses to be frank most people aren't ready to sit tight through boom and bust cycles what's interesting to note though is that munger stresses real returns being low instead of just returns while referring to the next 10 years so what are real returns well by definition real returns are what you have earned on an investment after adjusting for taxes and inflation therefore real returns are always lower than your nominal ones now just over a year ago biden took center stage at the white house his predecessor donald j trump and his administration had significantly different governance ideologies compared to biden especially when it came to taxes in order to please the masses trump slashed corporate taxes from 35 to 15 but the current ruling party aims to reverse that decision and increase taxes on establishments companies investors and individuals which will tie into munger's thesis of lower real returns now what truly reflects the core of all the issues in the us right now is when the common man heads out to buy a gallon of milk and realizes that the price has tripled in about three months now if you don't know this already you're probably living under a rock and there's no better way to say this but at present the us is plagued with extremely high inflation about a year ago authorities from the federal reserve announced an inflation figure of over seven percent now one might point fingers at a country like turkey and say yeah well it's in single digits so we're probably all right but in reality no it's illogical to draw power levels between the us and turkey it's no joke to say that this is the highest recorded inflation in the us in over 40 years now to put things into perspective a healthy inflation rate for a first world country should really be at around two percent period anything above that could rapidly start corroding away the collective wealth of the nation as commodity prices spike as we are seeing today and anything less than that could spiral the country into a state of deflation which is even worse unfortunately the u.s has manifested this upon itself instead of focusing on sound and ethical governance in the past five years the government has eye-washed citizens to believe that everything is under control how do they do that well it's pretty simple every time a correction was due and the investor sentiment dropped the fed would conveniently inject monetary stimulus to artificially revive the economy this is basically done by keeping interest rates super low so that people can borrow money at dirt cheap rates or by printing physical money through quantitative easing which simply means that the central bank will buy back existing government bonds to infuse liquidity in the markets now this is supposed to be a measure only used in dire crisis but guess what the fed is guilty at using it too much a ridiculous three trillion dollars were printed over the course of just three months in 2020 and right now over 40 percent of all existing us dollars in circulation today were artificially printed in 2021 so what do we make of this well as manga rightly points out people today assume that as the government keeps increasing the money supply they'll keep getting richer but in reality their purchasing capacity is dramatically reducing as they say there is no such thing as a free lunch two different questions what do you think of the combinations of quantitative easing and large fiscal deficit and where are they going to lead us well there i've got a very simple answer and that is it's one of the most interesting questions anybody could ask and we're in very uncharted waters nobody has gotten by with the kind of money printing we're doing now for a very extended period without some trouble and i i think we're we're very near the edge of playing with fire it is remarkable how much we've expanded the money supply how low interest rates are and how little initial response that has been unremarkable not too strong a word astounding would be more i like it i will let you choose the adjective charlie it's it's unbelievably extreme some european government borrowed money recently for some tiny little fraction of one percent for a hundred years now that is weird would loan money to a european government for a hundred years of less than one percent so can i can i ask you a question that sort of falls out of this but from a different perspective which is that for a lot of time a lot of the policy making in the world was because capital is scarce for a long time the world economies were poor and since world war ii we've been creating wealth at a very very high rate have the rules change to some extent because in some sense the developed economies are just very wealthy well of course it's changed to some extent because the developing county the economies are very wealthy it's changed enormously in my lifetime advanced civilization has gotten ahead faster than any century that exists before and nothing else is even close utterly without president in real terms it just it's unbelievable i watched the whole damn thing practically because i've lived so long and it's been absolutely astounding so now that we've established that inflation is a plague you're probably wondering what's the cure well the fed spearheaded by is chairman jerome powell is already beginning to spike interest rates in essence borrowing money will become more expensive liquidity will get sucked up and this will help to drive prices back down to equilibrium i'm sorry to burst your bubble but inflation isn't going away anytime soon and the truth is that as liquidity keeps getting crunched it will certainly reflect on asset prices in the stock market as well manga says that one of the greatest ways to avoid trouble is to keep it simple the system often goes out of control now i'd be making a huge mistake if i took the name of charlie munger and didn't discuss one thing that's most important to him fundamentals now just in the past five years the s p 500 has doubled and the reason for that is apparent since 2008 public tech companies began to compete in a race for who would breach the 1 trillion market cap mark first fast forward to today and apple is worth over 2 trillion microsoft worth 1.6 and amazon at 1.5 technology companies have been growing at the speed of light and so have their respective valuations experts state that these companies are overpriced though and crowds are pouring in trillions of dollars at the risk of these firms being disrupted by other companies with superior technologies in the future manga's observation rings true when he says that companies work like biology and over time they all die at present there is an imbalance in the stock market the weight of these giant overvalued companies on the indices is immense the market is way too hot and needs to be cooled down a correction is long overdue and really it's already started manga is afraid that it will take just one match to light this forest on fire now by studying manga's life closely we can learn that he is a student of life itself manga's success may seem out of reach for most of us but at the end of the day he's a mere mortal who says simple logical and actionable things now you're probably thinking that if everything's pointing to a potential sideways moving market why are people still investing well again let's take monga's philosophy into account here he says that an investor in today's time needs to be on the lookout for companies that could possibly be disruptors an enterprise that has the potential to challenge the current world and in return make investors a lot of money through innovation on the flip side one also needs to balance that by looking for companies in industries that cannot be disrupted enterprises that serve fundamental human needs like food transportation or shipping according to him an investor who manages to find this sweet spot has a lot of upside potential as they'd not only be able to make sustainable returns and safeguard themselves from economic shocks but also they'll be able to play the investing game for much longer than other speculators is it nasdaq in a bubble and will it blow up and do we know when is the nasdaq in a bubble well i i nobody knows when bubbles are going to blow up just because it's nasdaq doesn't mean it'll have another run like this one very quickly again this has been unbelievable again there's never been anything quite like it if you stop to think about it think what apple is worth compared to john d rockefeller's old oil empire it's been the most dramatic thing that's almost ever happened in the entire world history of finance all in all the objective of this video isn't to intimidate folks from partaking in the financial markets of course one should seek to invest their wealth and grow it multi-fold if possible my pursuit with this channel will always be to bring to the surface references from some of the best minds in the world a mindset of constant learning and reinventing skills is what has kept legends like charlie munger and warren buffett relevant even after 50 years of investing as far as my opinion is concerned munger's case for the lost decade seems very strong but as sensible retail investors a good starting point is to formulate market movement assumptions based on current affairs and solid facts it's the simplest and in my opinion most effective way to play the game boom and bust cycles lost decades in economic turmoil will always be a part of our life but as long as we live by first principles and use common sense we will make our way through it all finally i want to give the daily upside one more thank you for partnering with me on this video if you haven't subscribed already click the link in the bio to receive their weekday and weekend edition 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