저자: Max—게스트발언중심,주출연인물명시없음 · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 버블 논쟁을 다룸. Novogratz는 AI주가 PER상 싸다며 매수 주장, Dalio는 금리 상승과 자산 현금화로 AI 버블 붕괴가 임박했다고 경고. Taleb은 채권시장이 진짜 단층선이라고 봄. 사회자는 AI 버블이 부채 확대로 연내 더 부풀 수 있으나 채권금리 상승으로 붕괴 가능성을 언급. 소프트뱅크의 걸프 자금 조달 난항과 EU-중국 무역갈등(전기차·하이브리드 관세)도 다룸. 구체 가격 예측 발언은 제한적.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio, one of the most successful investors in human history, the man who created the largest hedge fund, and another billionaire investor are loudly and decisively sounding the alarm about artificial intelligence, declaring that it is, without a doubt, a “bubble,” and even more—the largest in history.
SoftBank is desperately trying to raise capital for its AI investments from the oil-rich Gulf states as AI funding in America has almost dried up and the EU is about to start a trade war with China to save its failing auto industry . We will discuss all of this today on Stoic Finance with me, your host Max.
And if you want to stay up to date on financial news that traditional media doesn't show , like and comment on this video so the algorithm shows you my future videos, and of course, subscribe to the channel. The debate over the AI “bubble” has officially moved from “is it a bubble” to “how to make money before it bursts.” Speaking at the Greenwich Economic Forum this week, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, also a billionaire hedge fund manager, said AI is the biggest bubble of our time and investors should act immediately.
His argument: Bubbles don't end the way we see them today . I know how bubbles end: they end spectacularly , and the current situation is not spectacular enough. In other words, the bubble is real, it's just not "inflated " enough to burst yet. 9,500 miles away in Singapore, Ray Dalio reached the opposite conclusion from the same premise, warning that AI is a classic bubble that is now close to bursting.
Meanwhile in Greenwich, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the " black swan" theory, said they might both be looking in the wrong direction, because the real fault line runs through the bond market. So let's first look at Novogratz's arguments. His optimistic forecast boils down to a valuation. AI-related stocks, he argued, still look cheap on a price-to- earnings basis, and for those still on the sidelines, he had some practical advice.
If you don't invest in AI, you might as well just go home and stick your head in an ice bucket. He also sees no political obstacles, stating that both parties view the AI race with China as existential, so it will be very difficult for Washington to slow down the development of AI even to the level that the developers themselves want.
And this is a point where I actually agree with Novogratz to some extent. From a political perspective, neither China nor Russia has any incentive to slow down the development of the AI bubble. She is enriching them right now. They want it to continue and see it as the future of humanity. Speaking in Singapore on Wednesday, Bridgewater hedge fund founder Ray Dalio said AI is a classic bubble that is about to burst due to two factors: rising interest rates and the need to convert paper wealth into cash.
We are in a phase of the cycle that precedes this, but is already approaching it. I think we are close to that. Piercing is the conversion of wealth into money. Essentially, this is when people exit assets. Have you noticed how all these different AI companies that are private, like OpenAI, Floppy, and SpaceX, are desperately trying to go public to raise cash?
What has changed since then is the value of money. Long-term Treasury bond yields are now at their highest level since 2002. Dalio added a second warning a day earlier, saying that China and Japan could abandon U.S. Treasuries because the debtor-creditor relationship, which is simultaneously hostile, creates a very complex dynamic.
So, first, Novogratz says that AI is definitely a bubble and it will burst. It simply has n't finished growing yet, because bubbles always end in spectacular collapses. And I agree with that to some extent. As of now, the bubble continues to inflate every month , and I expect it to continue for at least a few more months, perhaps even most of the year, as debt continues to be taken out to finance infrastructure.
In my opinion, the bubble will almost certainly burst at the point where it is no longer possible to take on more debt to keep it going . But that's why bond markets are so important right now: because so much capital has been absorbed into infrastructure development, there's simply almost none left.
So, yields are rising globally, and as they continue to rise, which they are, the ability to make a profit on that debt is diminishing. The problem with Novogratz's statement, however, is that he is trying to value AI companies today based on their projected price-to- earnings ratios, which obviously depend on whether the bubble continues to grow rather than burst.
Take Nvidia for example, where they claim to have revenue of $400 billion to $680 billion next year. And if the bubble doesn't burst, they may well achieve this goal. So, if you judge them based on that, they seem cheap. The problem is that when the bubble bursts, their future incomes will fall by 80 or 90%.
And Nvidia's valuation will fall with it. And no AI company in the world is going to come out and say, " Oh, don't worry." Next year our income or profits will fall into the abyss when the bubble bursts. ” Therefore, projected profits and revenues are extremely unreliable indicators for assessing value in a given situation.
As for Ray Dalio, he speaks much more clearly and confidently, and there really isn't much to add here. He believes this is a typical technology and infrastructure bubble. The evidence is compelling, and it's only a matter of time before it breaks. We might be able to ignore his words if it weren't for the fact that they come from one of the most successful investors in history, who also built the largest hedge fund in history.
So at this stage , it's probably worth thinking about. As for SoftBank, they are starting to desperately try to raise as much money as possible for AI, despite all signs that the party is coming to an end. Masayoshi Son is seeking to raise up to $100 billion from Gulf investors as the SoftBank founder seeks new financial muscle to scale the colossal AI bet that has already made him one of the technology's leading proponents .
In recent weeks, Son has held talks with senior officials, including in the UAE, about a possible fundraising. This fundraising effort is the latest in a series of big AI bets by the Japanese billionaire adventurer, including a $ 65 billion investment in OpenAI. It also comes amid a delay in OpenAI's long-awaited IPO, and concerns about the scale of the AI boom's impact on SoftBank have prompted some investors to reassess Son's ability to pour more money into a technology he has declared revolutionary.
As part of a possible fundraising in the Gulf countries, the SoftBank founder plans to use the money to create a fund to buy companies and then use AI and other advanced technologies to improve their operations. Rose, SoftBank's robotics and physical AI business that Son hopes to take to the stock market at a high valuation, is expected to play a key role in this process.
Now, if we go back 3–6 months ago, SoftBank was of course also looking at and trying to raise as much cash as possible to invest in AI. Ultimately, Masayoshi Son is a man who indulges in hype and euphoria to his own detriment. This led to his most humiliating moment , when WeWork's IPO failed after he had spent years funding it with billions, despite it being just a big fraudulent scheme.
The difference is this: at the beginning of the year, almost all of his fundraising efforts , like those of everyone else seeking capital for AI markets , were directed to US markets or, at least, from investors in other technology companies, founders of large successful billion-dollar projects from countries like China or Singapore - in other words, from people who have actually created capital, know what they are doing, and have at least some idea of risk management.
Now, SoftBank is forced to try to raise capital only from those who are still willing to consider increasing their stake in AI. We are, of course, talking about the oil-rich Gulf states, which also have a history of making absolutely terrible and senseless investments, such as the LIV Golf saga in Saudi Arabia.
Ultimately, investments from the Gulf states will always be worse than investments from billionaires from America, China, or Singapore, because none of these states or the people who manage the money built anything themselves. They are disconnected from the incentive structures that truly create wealth, because everything they have comes from chance—their ancestors simply happened to be nomadic camel herders sitting on a pile of oil, and that's what caused every drop of wealth in all their countries today.
The people who run the funds have received excellent educations, the best that money can buy , and some of them are very smart people. But in the end, they are still just the great- nephews or grandchildren of those who own the country and, as it happens, all the oil beneath it, and they hold their positions not because of their own merit.
So the news that SoftBank can no longer raise funds from those who have actually built their capital, and can only count on those who essentially stumbled upon it, is a very poor indicator of the appetite for AI at this stage of the “ bubble.” Finally, today we will take a quick look at Europe and its struggling auto industry .
The EU's top trade representative is in Beijing for high- level talks with China as the bloc urges the global manufacturing giant to take concrete steps to reduce its growing surplus. The European Commissioner will be in the Chinese capital for two days, including meetings with China's commerce minister, as the sides try to prevent an escalation of the trade conflict.
The talks come amid growing discontent in many European capitals that Beijing has not done enough to address a trade surplus that has ballooned to a billion euros a day. To put it bluntly, from a capitalist's perspective, why would China voluntarily refuse to import goods to Europe worth over 1 billion euros in net profit every day?
They make crazy money selling to Europe. Of course, they are not going to destroy their own industry by themselves . European officials blame the flow of cheap Chinese exports for the loss of tens of thousands of jobs in the EU's manufacturing sector. They previously stated that China threatens not only industry but also the social model of Europe, as it leads to mass unemployment.
On the eve of the talks, the Financial Times reported that China had rejected an EU request to restrict exports of hybrid cars, whose supply has increased sharply after the imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. So, frankly speaking, we should not expect any significant results from this visit, because all the trump cards are in China's hands, and they not only do not intend to harm their exports, but also receive huge profits from them.
They have spent decades crafting policies, manipulating currencies, and stealing intellectual property to gain the ability to make huge amounts of money exporting around the world. This is not an accident on China's part. It was a multi-year plan that proved incredibly successful. China's automotive industry is far ahead of Europe's, and consumers in Europe and the UK now like Chinese cars because they are much better value for money.
The only thing the EU can do to stop buyers is to artificially inflate the prices of Chinese cars with high tariffs. So what is most likely to happen? Most likely , these negotiations will lead to nothing. Tariffs will be imposed on Chinese exports to the EU in strategically important sectors, such as auto manufacturing, and China will, of course, respond.
The EU is not America, and China has fought back even the US in trade wars. There is no way the EU can win a trade war with China. They won't even be able to draw it, as the Americans manage, but they have no choice but to start this war or lose millions of industrial jobs in a stagnant economy. As sad as it may sound, Europe has already lost.
This has been lost over the past 20 years, and the hopes of the West and democracy for victory over authoritarianism ultimately lie solely in America's hands for now. Now, if there's a specific topic you want me to cover tomorrow, leave a comment below in the description, or if you just want to stay up to date on financial news that traditional media won't show, subscribe to this channel, like, and comment on this video so my next video will appear in your feed thanks to the algorithm.
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