저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 2022년 6월 시점에 트위터를 통해 밝힌 시장 경고를 정리하고, 진행자가 이를 해설하는 영상이다. 핵심 주장: 인플레이션은 일시적(transitory)이 아니었고 아직 정점도 아니며, 연준이 경제를 무너뜨려야만 인플레이션을 잡을 수 있다는 입장이다. 채권 시장: 미국 CPI 발표 직후 채권 금리가 8시간 만에 30~40bp 급등했고, 모기지증권(MBS)은 매수자가 없는 상태가 되었다고 버리는 지적한다. 소비 여력: 미국 개인저축률은 2008년 수준으로 하락했고 신용카드 잔액은 역대 최고 속도로 증가했다. 이에 따라 소비 침체와 기업 실적 악화 가능성이 제기된다. 지속 기간: 양적완화는 2008년부터 시작됐으므로 이번 하락장은 짧지 않을 수 있다. 닷컴 버블은 약 3년, 2006년 주택 버블은 약 2년에 걸쳐 꺼졌다는 점을 근거로 든다. 전망 불확실성: 버리 본인도 표준적 경기침체, 스태그플레이션, 재차 양적완화에 따른 자산 버블, 일본식 잃어버린 10년 중 어떤 시나리오가 올지 확신하지 못한다고 말한다. 진행자 입장: 버리의 경고를 여러 차례 무시했던 사람들이 지금 손실을 보고 있다고 지적한다. 진행자 본인은 2021년 12월 미국 주식 위험자산 포지션을 정리했고, 고점을 정확히 잡기보다 낮은 가격에 재진입하는 것이 중요하다고 말한다. 종목별 방향: 개별 종목·지수에 대한 구체적 가격 전망은 없고, 전반적으로 미국 주식 하락을 예상한다.
다듬은 글
michael bury is one of the most renowned investors alive today but he wasn't always an investor he started off training to be a medical doctor but did so well just trading his own funds in the markets that people begged him to start a hedge fund and then the rest frankly is history he has been ridiculously successful beating every major index and pretty much every other major investor as well including the dreaded kathy wood for decades on end he successfully predicted the dot-com crash and made millions doing so he did the exact same eight years later with the housing market boom and in the process of making himself hundreds of millions of dollars then he made himself infamous as well for the decade-long period that his hedge fund was open to investors it made over 500 of returns while the s p 500 returned just three percent to its investors it's no surprise then that a lot of people myself included look to him to try and find some kind of guidance to make our way through current market conditions especially given how turbulent they are right now now over the last two years michael bury has found a new rallying cause a new event to tell everyone about and that he plans on profiting off of as well and it is of course the market crash that we are currently experiencing now to be perfectly honest i've spoken about michael bury and his predictions regarding this crash countless times over the last year but on almost every single occasion i've been widely ignored and as has michael bury as the bull run rolled forward and as investors were making millions from buying over-hyped overpriced tech stocks that had no basis being worth the tens of billions that they were valued at youtube commenters love to mock the likes of michael bowie claiming that he had predicted 20 of the last three crashes and a myriad of other funny little lines the simple truth is though six months on from the last peak in the s p 500 and the nasdaq no one's mocking him anymore now suddenly everyone is interested in what he has to say and everyone's listening to every word the simple truth is that michael barry was right once again once again he successfully predicted and profited off of a massive market crash but we're only six months into this one and despite what you may think that isn't a long time at all and according to michael bowie we are a long way from the end of this market turmoil so what has he been speaking about recently what is he warning us of at this time well thankfully we have twitter and in particular his twitter account to look to to try and answer that question so today we're going to very briefly look at what michael bury has been saying why he's worried about the economy and what this might mean for the markets as well now this of course starts with the tweet in front of you here where michael bowie talks about inflation and in particular the idea that it was transitory transitory no peak no to the moon if you mean a cold dark place the cpi news this morning was so awful that it changed the bond market's view of fed trajectory and the weakest sector broke in bond jargon mbs went no bid no buyers for mbs now what he's talking about here is really quite simple earlier on in the month we got data coming out of the u.s suggesting that inflation have not peaked that it's continuing to accelerate and that is awful news for pretty much everyone in the economy and the markets because it means that no the fed's actions so far have not been sufficient to tame inflation and so they're needing to go stronger now bowie notes in particular that fixed income assets and bonds are really struggling off of this news he literally says that the bond market is broken and it's no wonder why he says that when you look at bond yields over that day because they absolutely exploded moving in excess of 30 or 40 basis points over the course of just eight hours that kind of volatility is really nothing to turn your nose up about and it is a sign of a worried market system that really doesn't know how to price what's going to come next now barry also takes aim at the idea that inflation was transitory all along or that we've actually seen the peak of inflation basically making out that they were both delusional which they were now the reality here is that actually over the last few months no one has dared to say the words that inflation is transitory because it's become a sure-fire way to discredit your position entirely and to let everyone in the world know that you don't know what you're talking about the real problem is though most investors and the federal reserve themselves have been secretly hoping that their transitory thesis was right anyway the fed were pushing back quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes because they were hoping that inflation would ease on its own investors continued to pile money up into overhyped tech stocks because they continued to hope that inflation was actually transitory and that it would die down on its own the last cpi data that we got unfortunately was the straw that broke the camel's back there is now no possible narrative surrounding that that makes any feasible sense inflation was not transitory it never was and so the only way to bring it back down to sensible levels is for the fed to crash the economy and the market next we see michael barry talk about the economy that actually the fed is likely to crash u.s personal savings fell to 2013 levels the savings rate to 2008 levels while revolving credit card debt grew at a record-setting pace back to the pre-covered peak despite all those trillions of dollars of cash dropped in their laps looming a consumer recession and more earnings trouble now along with those words barry showed us some graphs some data which show that savings levels are down to decade-long lows and this is at a time when the economy is still in turmoil which means that when people start to lose their jobs they're going to have less money than usual to fall back on before things start really going awry he also noted how saving race are at lowe's not seen since the great financial crisis when the great recession was in full swing that means that this problem of low savings isn't going to get better any time soon either and then finally he takes note of the fact that credit card debt is growing at record all-time highs and that's again a sign that actually the economy is far weaker than people would have you believe the simple fact is that consumers are in a really poor position they're in a weak position they don't have much cash in their bank accounts and every month it isn't really growing debt on the other hand is growing at a pretty monumental rate in particular credit card debt which already has a high interest rate but which is going to absolutely explode as the fed continues to hike the federal funds rate over the next few months this is basically a recipe for a recession because there's just no way around it consumers do not have the money to spend anymore and that's only going to get worse they're going to have less money in the future which means that companies earnings are going to take hits and thus their valuations as well in short barry is saying that actually the stock route is not over because earnings haven't even really started to take an impact from the poor economy that they're operating within as it becomes harder and harder for a company to earn a profit off of a struggling consumer stock values will only continue to decline next michael talks about the idea that actually this isn't going to be a quick process and it's going to be tracked out the theater took more than a decade to overstuff it's not likely everyone gets out in less than a year it's often forgotten these days but quantitative easing started post the great recession back in 2008 not post the covert pandemic of 2020.
so much focus is applied to the last two years because it has been an acceleration but actually the bull run that has been fueled by this mass liquidity and federal money printing has lasted over 10 years not just two what does this mean from michael bury's point of view well we're likely going to see valuations of equities return not to their pre-covered 2020 levels but maybe even their 2010 levels back before the economy became flooded with such excess liquidity the crash here will probably take a long time to do this as well and the reality is that this is always the case you probably just have a wrong idea of how bubbles really work the word of bubble itself gives us this idea of an asset class growing and growing and growing until it finally can't take it anymore and it pops and collapses over the course of a couple of days the problem is though that never actually happens the dot-com bubble which absolutely no one in the world will tell you wasn't a bubble took about three years to actually deflate the 2006 housing market bubble as well took about two years to entirely deflate we're only six months into this bear market and so it is without a doubt not going to end anytime soon next barry reiterates the idea that actually getting things right is really difficult especially with market conditions being so turbulent just getting one thing right is hard the 1999 tech bubble the 01 205 value revival the 2005 housing bubble 2009 almond farms 2020 covered bottom 2020 lockdown horrors 2021 meme stocks 2021 crypto leverage 2021 inflation 2022 not done yet what's to come for 2022.
the simple fact is here that it's incredibly hard to predict the future and even michael bowie isn't sure what's next are we going to see a standard recession of a couple of years of tough growth and low asset prices followed by another boom cycle are we going to see a stagflation recession where inflation maintains its extremely high levels which puts massive limits on what the government can do to try and aid growth are we going to see an instant and swift return to quantitative easing and another liquidity fueled asset bubble to follow or are we going to see a japanese-style lost decade where american equities fail and struggle for years on end the simple truth is that bury doesn't know here i don't know here and neither does any other investor out there but the data suggests that it isn't going to be good finally then barry has this to say as i said in 2008 it's like watching a plane crash it hurts it is not fun and i'm not smiling the simple fact is that bowie got a lot of flack after 2008.
during the run-up to the actual financial collapse his own investors tried to mutiny against him and exit his short positions he made them millions of dollars some of them hundreds of millions of dollars and yet they still came out of this hating them all together everyone else in the world though hated him because he didn't warn them enough apparently because he allowed the bubble to continue to grow while he set bets against them the simple truth is though he did warn people about it they just chose to ignore him now this time though he's doing more he is tweeting a lot he is letting everyone know his thesis and his ideas and his traits and so this time no one should be able to in good faith claim that he isn't warning them but unfortunately people still choose to be ignorant especially when it comes to michael bury now i've spoken about michael barry quite a lot on this channel but this is the first time i've spoken about him over the last few months while he's pretty much been confirmed as categorically right about cooling the last market bubble and the current market crash this here is the comment section from a video i made about michael bowie about seven months ago right before the markets peaked and before they started their downturn some of the most upvoted comments on this video are people mocking michael bowie fundamentally misunderstanding what he's actually saying constantly saying it's going to crash and eventually you'll be right the simple truth is that this person expects a day of declines where 90 of every asset class in the world collapses overnight before markets start to rise again they expect a specific minute an hour and day for this trigger and if you give them anything less specific than that they'll claim that you were wrong anyway these people complained that some predictions for these crashes were early some even as early as 18 months prior to the actual decline they make frankly weird statements about what people are claiming saying that actually they've been calling for a separate crash every week for an entire year when in reality barry has been calling for one major crash for about 18 months long the idea that markets grew and grew and grew up until this crash didn't prove him wrong it proved him even more right and it just meant that when that crash finally came it was just going to be so much damn bigger the reality is that we are now in that crash the people who ignored michael bury before are the same people whose portfolios are hurting today i exited my risk on asset positions in u.s equities back in december and actually in the two worst parts of december first when markets dipped early on in the month and then again about on the 20th of december missing the top of the markets by about five percent compared to the blood bath that has now followed over the last six months though i still got off incredibly easy the reality is that you don't need to time the top of the market you just need to be able to get back in at a lower cost average than when you left and that's something that michael bowie could clearly accomplish g
Comments 0