저자: MichaelBurry · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 배리는 현재 시장 폭락이 이미 진행 중이며 아직 끝나지 않았다고 본다. 배리의 주장 1: 기술주 거품. 적자 기업 중 시가총액 10억달러 이상 218개, 그중 100억달러 이상 29개(합계 약 6550억달러)가 연간 이익을 내지 못하고 있다고 지적. 배리의 주장 2: 패시브 투자 거품. 지수형 펀드 자금이 기업 펀더멘털과 무관하게 대형주로 유입되며 가격발견 기능이 사라졌고, 위기 시 대부분이 빠져나가지 못할 것이라고 경고. 배리의 주장 3: 시장 내부 지표. 200일 이동평균선 위 종목 비율이 13.48%로 2009년·2020년 저점보다 낮고 2007년 12월 수준이라며 위기 중반에 불과하다고 봄. 배리의 주장 4: 캐시 우드 ARK 포트폴리오가 거품 그래프와 유사하다며 비판. 진행자 전망: 현재 폭락은 과거 대폭락(2000년 닷컴, 2008년 금융위기)처럼 수개월~수년 지속되는 형태로 봐야 하며, 10개월째 S&P500 약 20%, 나스닥 약 35% 하락은 이미 중간 정도라는 견해. 배리 예측 적중률에 대한 비판에는 폭락이 순식간이 아니라는 점을 들어 반박. 언급 종목 방향: 개별 종목 매수·매도 언급은 없고 기술주·나스닥 전반이 추가 하락할 것이라는 취지. 리스크/조건: 2022년 10월 시점 발언으로 이후 시장 흐름과 무관하게 과거 견해임. 출연자 전망: 배리는 데이터 기반이며 추가 하락을 예상. 진행자도 동의하는 입장.
다듬은 글
Michael Murray we all know who he actually is even if we don't necessarily know him by name well you probably would recognize Christian Bale's performance as Michael burry in the film The Big Short he is an insanely successful investor and has consistently beaten the s p 500's returns ever since he started his first fan back during the peak of the.com bubble he garnered much fanfare when he successfully predicted and then bet against the housing market crash of 2006 and made himself hundreds of millions of dollars in the process now and really ever since the covet boom really took off Bowie has been pointing out the insane valuations in the markets and he's been calling it out as a rightful bubble now 10 months into 2022 and stocks everywhere a falling week by week and month by month the S P 500 is currently down by over 20 and at its worst it's been down by 25 the NASDAQ on the other hand has had an even harder time of it where its losses have fallen by 35 it's plain and simple see the market crash is here to anyone who's brave enough to open their eyes and see it but Michael burry has recently come out with some ominous tweets revealing his belief that actually no things aren't done and they're going to get so much worse now the first thing that Barry rallied against was the tech bubble that we've recently seen and in particular he's rallied against the ridiculous valuations of a bunch of companies that are plain and simple in no position to create profits anytime soon and yet still there are investors willing to keep their money in these failing of Corporations this morning there were still 218 primary stock listings in the United States with a market cap of over 1 billion dollars and ebitda less than negative 100 million dollars 29 of them had market caps of 10 billion or more totaling 655 billion dollars saying it again all of the silliness must go now Barry is very specifically pointing out the fact that despite these drawdowns in the markets over 2022 so far even if they do feel really quite tough and really quite strong valuations of a lot of companies are still way off base with 29 companies in particular representing 655 billion dollars in market value and yet not a single one of those companies can create even one dollar in profit over an entire year and in fact they all lose hundreds of millions of dollars every year and this is let's not forget only publicly traded companies that Barry is actually talking about this here there are hundreds of other companies just like this and More in places like Silicon Valley with insane private market valuations yet no profits and actually again they lose Millions constantly this is silliness as Barry just said and until it is done for until these occurrences are rare and outliers instead of being commonplace the markets are going to continue to fall and that plain and simple is what Barry said with this Tweet now a couple days after that first tweet Barry then tweeted this the difference between now and 2000 is the passive investing bubble that inflated steadily over the last decade all theaters are overcrowded and the only way anyone can get out is by trembling each other and still the door is only so big here bury rallies against the passive investing index bubble that he's spoken about before and he points out that it is still actually present as well again to the delusion of many people as index funds and brokerage apps have become so common and so easy to use over recent years trillions of dollars have flowed into the markets from ordinary people who don't really know how to invest and so they pick passive Investments which is usually a good thing the problem is though because all of these Investments are passive none of this has resulted in any real price Discovery when you buy an S P 500 Index Fund you buy parts of the biggest companies like apple Microsoft and Google simply because they are parts of the biggest businesses you don't actually take a look at the fundamentals of Google and why you might like to own that stock you buy them because they're big and when this happens on mass when you see millions of people doing this with trillions of colluded dollars then you see these companies continue to inflate further because they simply put are the biggest Barry's saying that the theaters are crowded with investors and when the route truly starts or if something worse happens and there's something like a fire when people start running for the doors most people will not make it out and most people will lose their Investments then bury tweeted more evidence that actually the market crash is not yet over and that it's going to keep on coming for some more time 13.48 of stocks closed above their 200-day moving average yesterday bottom in 2009 was 1.2 percent bottom in 2020 was 2.8 percent currently we're at December 2007 levels Barry here is pointing out that there are still many stocks that are actually performing okay on the grand scheme of things even though the markets on the whole are down and by a decent proportion historically though when you look at Major Market crashes almost all stocks fall a very large amount and for a sustained period as well Barry is specifically looking at the 200-day moving average of these companies to see if they are still falling or if they're maybe maintaining their value or if they even continuing to inflate and by that metric we are far far from the end December 2007 was barely halfway through the global financial crisis and Bowie seems to think that we are probably somewhere similar in regards to that with the 2022 market crash that we're in right now what then is the most recent thing that Michael burry has said about the markets well he simply tweeted this this was coming because it has always been this way before how anyone over the age of 40 did not see it coming is a riddle the answer being greed he posted alongside that a slightly cryptic graph which isn't clear what it is at first it doesn't have any scales any axes or any labelings catering to what it is actually showing but it seems to mirror almost identically Kathy Woods RK portfolio over the last two years and that was clearly in a bubble Barry's message here is very simple it was so damn obvious to anyone willing to actually look at the facts people like Kathy Wood who never saw this crash coming had blinded themselves by agreed they'd convince themselves that this time it was different that this technology was so revolutionary that there'd never be a market crash again and that this bubble would never pop but they were of course wrong they wanted it to continue so they believed that it would continue and Bowie is specifically naming and shaming Kathy Wood here just in a way that only those who actually pay attention and can recognize this graph are able to see and frankly he's right to do so she has lost her investors billions of dollars this year and she's refused to admit any kind of wrongdoing as she does so getting prediction after prediction wrong month after month why she still seems to have some kind kind of a positive name in some areas of the internet will forever bewild me but that's where we are but Michael Barry's ideas about the market right now should be quite clear the market crash is already here we are right in the middle of it and sadly it isn't even nearly over yet the question on everyone's mind though is is he right about that and my honest answer here is that yes he probably is Barry's opinions on the markets are not like normal investors or YouTubers or someone like myself they're not at all based on feelings or loose ideas of what the FED is going to do or anything like that they're based on data on cold hard facts and the data is soundly in support of Michael burry we have seen bubbles like this one before two different extents yes but bubbles are bubbles and by looking back at those previous occurrences we can see how extreme the drawdowns were and while it may feel like the world is ending today like stocks literally can't get any lower it was so much worse in these previous Market crashes so it stands to reason that actually it's probably going to get worse here again as always the critique against Barry is this whole he's predicted 17 of the last three Market crashes or this example here Barry has predicted 30 of the last two Market crashes implying that he's actually wrong more than he's right but those who say this really don't actually understand what Market crashes are or how they look this idea is basically that crashes are instant that stocks go up for years on end then on a single day in 2008 or in a single day during the.com bubble every stock everywhere fell by 90 and then the markets just kept on going back up again as a result of this weird idea there are those that claim that we aren't even in a market crash today still after drawdowns of 20 to 30 percent over the course of 10 whole months because it hasn't been instant as if that has ever been a requirement of a market crash I think this is likely due to two different things the first that most investors and most people watching YouTube videos who are I interact with are relatively new investors and also people when their memories are quite frankly crap most of the people parroting this idea are only looking back to the 2020 market crash which was a once in a lifetime crash as it was caused by the government's reaction to a virus and not for usual cyclical recessionary things these lockdowns happened instantly and overnight and under those circumstances yes the crash was instant but for every other market crash in the history of mankind that has not been the case no one in their right mind would claim that the.com bubble didn't end in a massive market crash and no one in their right mind would argue that the 2008 financial crisis didn't end in a massive market crash but people are still sitting here today and saying that Barry was wrong because there hasn't been this One Singular day where stocks Fall by 70 across the board this graph behind me right here shows the S P 500 during the 2008 financial crisis in yellow and the s p P 500 over the last couple of years in white as you can see the markets are behaving in an almost identical way today as they were back in 2008 and yet people have this weird idea that the 08 market crash happened instantly and that the only days the markets actually fell were when Lehman Brothers fell and where burst stands collapsed but that simply isn't the case the 2008 financial crash saw stocks fall week after week and month after month for almost two entire years from June 2007 to March 2008 the.com crash saw stocks consistently fooled from August 2000 to February 2003 which was even longer than two entire years Bowie hasn't been predicting 10 different crashes throughout 2022 he's been predicting one crash on many separate occasions and reiterating that claim time after time that is going to last four months or even years but people are simply to stupid to even look at a chart and see what a crash actually looks like to think that this invalidates all of his claims the simple truth is we are in the middle of this market crash and so far it has lasted for just over 10 months and in comparison to some other recent Market crashes that means it's barely even halfway done so if you see anyone posting a funny quip about Bowie predicting more crashes than he's actually been successful politely remind them to actually watch the entire length of this video and in particular this part here where I explained why those people are so wrong as Bowie likes to say I might be early but I'm not wrong so until next time stay stoic foreign
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