저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 영상은 마이클 버리가 패시브 인덱스 투자 버블이 이미 터졌을 수 있다고 주장한다는 내용을 전달하며, 구체적 가격 전망은 제시하지 않는다. 버리의 핵심 주장: 2020년 이후 패시브 투자 자금이 대량 유입되며 버블이 형성되었다고 본다. 패시브 투자는 가격 발견 기능이 없어 자금 유입만으로 개별 종목과 지수가 상승하는 구조라는 논리다. 근거 자료: 버리가 공유한 학술 논문은 '1달러 추가 유입 시 시장가치 5달러 증가'라는 5:1 비율을 제시한다. 밀레니얼 세대 자산의 90%가 패시브 상품에 있다는 언급도 있다. 버핏 지표: 미국 주식 시가총액의 GDP 대비 비율은 1990년대 말 닷컴 버블 때 약 140%였고, 이후 양적완화로 약 200%까지 상승했다. 2022년 하락 후에도 150% 이상을 유지해 버블이 아직 끝나지 않았을 수 있다고 봤다. 종목 사례: 테슬라는 최고점 시총 약 1.3조 달러로 S&P500의 약 3%를, 애플은 약 3조 달러로 7% 이상을 차지했다. 지수 편입 자체가 자금 유입을 만들어 가격을 더 밀어올린다는 설명이다. 시나리오: 버리는 경기침체로 투자자들이 자산을 청산할 때 버블이 최종 붕괴한다고 본다. 영상은 버리가 시장이 계속 하락할 것으로 본다고 전한다. 반론: 버리가 여러 번 붕괴를 예측했다는 점에서 일회성 적중이라는 비판과, 현재 경제 여건이 나쁘다는 우려가 함께 언급된다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 시장이 이미 버블 붕괴 중일 수 있다는 입장을 전하지만 구체적 방향이나 기간은 밝히지 않는다. 영상 후반은 귀금속 및 자사 광고 내용이 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
Michael Bowie has been an Infamous investor ever since the film The Big Short was released detailing his moves to short the housing market in 2008 but his history of calling out bubbles and making millions of dollars in the process far predates that and he's kept on going since then as well in the wake of the covid pandemic bury once again put his skeptical hat on and shorted the markets and after a bleeding 2020 with stocks losing value week after week and month after month few are brave enough to still claim he was wrong he has though designated a new Target and this time it's the bubble surrounding Index Fund investing and passive investing and he's going all out once again today we're going to establish just what he's claiming why he's making these claims and what it all means as Bowie is telling us that the passive investing bubble has already popped we just don't know it yet now passive investing for those who don't know is the opposite of active investing instead of actively picking stocks trawling through financial statements and future growth reports trying to work out which companies will do well in the future you simply put your money into a broad basket of stocks and trust that on average the value of all those companies together will increase but Bowie thinks this is a problem though and that it's what sets this current market apart from previous bubbles the difference between now and 2000 is the passive investing bubble that inflated steadily over the last decade all theaters are overcrowded and the only way anyone can get out is by trampling each other and still the door is only so big too many people have just sat around following the age-old investing advice of chucking a few hundred dollars into the S P 500 each month and these people are all unaware of the problems this has caused at some point the routes will start and people will start to liquidate their positions but the door is only so big as bury says and not everyone can get out alive but Barry isn't just posting cryptic tweet it's warning us of what's to come about a year ago he actually posted a link to an academic research article called in search of the origins of financial fluctuations despite its rather dull name the paper is very interesting and supports the idea that there is a bubble from passive investing Bowie summarized the article by saying if five dollars incremental market value results from one dollar added to stocks and ninety percent of Millennials also known as future wealth owners are in passive Market vehicles that five to one ratio will get much much sillier in time kovit didn't stop it inflation might or not he Then followed up with the first step is to recognize that five to one is not a natural ratio it is the product of a paradigm so what will continue this Paradigm what may reverse it this is The knife's Edge because we are at five to one it may go to a hundred to one or become negative five to one but parabolas don't resolve sideways what Barry has talked about and what that academic article he linked to proves is that when you put one dollar into an index fund the nature of level average margin and other forms of debt means that the index increases in value by five dollars and thus a bubble is born now Barry recognized this back in September of 2021 or three months before the bear Market of 2022 began and we saw the top but even he didn't know exactly where this would go five to one is not a natural ratio it's a product of a paradigm and that Paradigm is the Federal Reserve it is fractional Reserve banking it is fiat currency and it is debt creation but we are witnessing the changing of our monetary environment right now as we speak with interest rates rising and quantitative easing being replaced with quantitative tightening it's possible that this is the paradigm shift that the inflation following the covert pandemic is what finally breaks this crooked system as Bowie just said parabolas don't resolve sideways this will either melt up or it will melt down of course there are other indicators you can look to to try and identify a bubble from index funds as well the most notable one being the Buffett indicator named after none other than Warren Buffett himself it's a basic principle but there are a few different versions some claim it's the total value of all U.S stocks compared to the country's GDP some claim it's the difference in value between the S P 500 or the Wiltshire 5000 and the US economy but what we all agree on is that it measures the valuation of American stocks compared to economic activity and that indicator was screaming at us by the end of 2021 when stocks are expensive when they're in a bubble the indicator Rises and historically it has held true in the 20th century the indicator would usually sit somewhere between 50 and 100 but it Rose drastically during the.com bubble up to 140 at its peak then over the last few years as quantitative easing and money printing have exploded the indicators started to rise again this time reaching a Monumental high of just over 200 percent the worst we've ever seen since the end of 2021 though stock prices have been falling as we all know and so has the indicator but it's still sitting above 1 150 percent far higher than it had ever been before this bubble indicating the pain is maybe not over and that the passive investing bubble may still be in full swing Bowie's also put out some not so cryptic tweets lamenting the lack of sensible active investors these days I get the sense in 2002 there were more value hedge funds than there are value investors today from his point of view value investors are vital for a functioning Market as they actually determine what prices assets should trade at and a lack of those investors means a lack of pricing pressure in the correct direction without them a passive investing bubble and Bubbles of other types are far more likely to emerge and that's exactly what we saw over the last few years as those investors who were active concentrated on hype and growth with the worst of them all being Kathy Wood a woman who lived in the clouds and convinced herself that this time it really was different Murray certainly thinks the pain isn't over and that there's more to come and that passive investing will play a major part in the history books or as he puts it you have no idea how short I am now if you've been paying attention to the markets you've probably seen how badly stocks are performing this year and you might be thinking about diversifying your portfolio or maybe you just want to hedge against inflation well if that's the case then you need to hear about this video sponsor vaulted now vaulted is the best way for individual or even institutional investors to acquire physical gold with a great website a mobile app that makes it easier than it's ever been they store and ensure their one-to-one allocated gold in the Royal Canadian Mint it's all certified conflict-free and you can rest easy in the knowledge that you can request instant physical delivery of your gold Holdings wherever or whenever you desire their prices are the best in the market because they store all of their gold at the manufacturer and they cut out all unnecessary middlemen they don't charge any premium or spread when buying or selling you gold and they are as transparent as possible meaning there are absolutely no hidden fees on top of all that they even managed to put out a load of really interesting content keeping you updated on the world of gold now if that sounds at all interesting to you then I highly suggest you check vaulted out again that's voted with the link Down Below in the comments and description but many people listen to these claims and they don't really understand how they can even be an index fund bubble from their point of view index funds are supposed to ensure there aren't any bubbles you just invest your money into the market as a whole so no singular company like pets.com gets extra attention there's no Euphoria or emotion when it comes to investing through index funds so the market should function appropriately and price assets reasonably unfortunately though Index Fund bubbles can exist and it's actually due to their nature not in spite of it while there is value to the idea that you don't pay attention to any individual stocks in the market with index funds that also presents a massive problem Tesla over the last couple of years is a brilliant example because of the size to which that stock has grown it's no secret that many people think Tesla has been a bubble and one of those sounding the alarm has actually been Michael burry over recent years at its peak Tesla was worth around 1.3 trillion dollars and was one of the most valuable publicly traded companies in the world making up about three percent of the entire market cap of the S P 500 that meant that when someone went to invest in the S P 500 they were putting three percent of their money into Tesla whether or not they knew it this contributed to increased buying pressure for Tesla and that will all have caused its price to go even higher because this is being done through an index fund none of these investors are partaking in price Discovery at all either so to them it doesn't matter how much Tesla is worth they will keep buying it anyway as long as they invest their monthly 500 into the S P 500 at the same time as this was happening for Tesla Apple was worth just under three trillion dollars and made up over seven percent of the entire S P 500 and so it was also seeing huge amounts of inflows from investors who weren't paying attention to its price these companies were getting bigger purely because they were already big they were getting more investors purely because they already had investors there was no element of price Discovery from the billions of dollars flooding into these companies via index funds and with no price Discovery we see bubbles grow of course this also happens across companies of every single scale and it also affects every single company in the S P 500 as it's such a dominant index no matter where you go for advice people will tell you the same thing invest in the S P 500 so any company in the index is just going to innately have more attention and more investors and more buying pressure than a company outside the S P 500 would have and so we see their values grow these inflows create strong returns and that pushes further investment pushing the value of the index up further again and so it isn't even just the case that Index Fund investing can cause and create bubbles in individual stocks but it can actually lead to a bubble in the entire index itself and that's what many fear we saw in the post-covered environment with millions of people sitting around with cash burning holes in their pockets they turn to easy to use and fun investing apps like Robinhood and put their money to work index funds and their popularity has never been so great and so we saw the growth of the world's first major Index Fund Bubble at least according to Michael Bowie now at the end of 2022 and we've all been watching the markets decline all year it seems incredibly likely that we're watching the first ever Index Fund bubble crash thankfully the nature of index fund investing is far more passive than other types of investing so fewer people cash out when fears strike their hearts and that's likely why this bubble hasn't exactly popped instead it's just been deflating what comes next is anyone's guess but from Bowie's point of view the markets will continue to fall and so far he's able to add another ribbon to his chest of medals from correctly predicting market bubbles and making himself a hell of a lot of money in the meantime unfortunately though Bowie is also pretty clear about how fast he thinks this is going to go down as well as he said all theaters are overcrowded and the only way anyone can get out is by trampling each other and still the door is only so big from his point of view once the recession really kicks in when people start to lose their homes their cars and their jobs when they have to make the tough decisions to go hungry or go cold well they will liquidate their portfolios and sell their passive Investments no matter how much they've lost and that will trigger the final collapse of this bubble as it culminates in the same way all bubbles do some people aren't convinced by this argument some claim Bowie is a one-hit wonder and doesn't actually know what he's talking about some claim he's predicted more crashes than he's ever seen but most are just cautious and worried because the economic environment growing right now is bad and it just keeps getting worse maybe the bubble has already popped and we just don't know it yet if you want more content like this then like comment and subscribe to the channel if you want to hear my pure unblided opinions untainted by YouTube's bam hammer and check out stoic Financial Freedom in the link down below and the first three people from this video can use code Bowie for a cheeky discount of up to 15 so until next time stay stoic
Comments 0