저자: StoicFinance채널진행자추정 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 미국이 1970~80년대식 스태그플레이션에 빠질 수 있으며, 연준 금리 인하(피벗) 기대와 정부 재정 확대가 인플레이션을 악화시킬 것이라고 주장한다. [스태그플레이션 개념] 고인플레이션과 저성장·고실업이 동시에 나타나는 상태로 설명된다. 연준은 인플레이션 억제(긴축)와 경기 침체 방지 사이에서 균형을 맞춰야 하는 상황이다. [미국 경기 진단] 미국은 2분기 연속 마이너스 GDP 성장으로 이미 침체 상태라고 주장하며, 공식 CPI 8.5%를 근거로 인플레이션이 통제 불능이라고 본다. NBER 판정이 늦는다는 점을 지적하며 정치적 정의 논쟁을 비판한다. [Dalio 전망] Ray Dalio는 향후 수년간 지속적인 스태그플레이션을 예상하는 것으로 소개된다. 1970년대처럼 연준이 인플레이션과 경기 사이에서 중간 노선을 택하면 고통만 연장된다는 논리다. [시장 기대 - 연준 피벗] 지난 6주간 자산가격 상승은 연준이 금리 인상을 멈추고 양적긴축도 하지 않을 것이라는 기대를 반영한다. 영상은 이 경우 경기는 부양되지만 인플레이션이 재가속해 결국 침체를 부른다고 본다. [금리·부채] 미 10년물 금리는 약 2.7%로 CPI 8.5% 대비 실질금리가 약 -6% 수준이다. 애플(55억 달러)·구글(100억 달러) 등의 채권 발행이 주주환원과 투자에 쓰이며, 이것이 인플레이션을 더 키운다고 설명한다. [정책 비판] 인플레이션 감축법(IRA)의 약 3,700억 달러 투자는 인플레이션을 줄이기보다 늘린다고 비판한다. 일부 주의 인플레이션 구제 수표 역시 수요를 자극해 물가를 올린다고 주장한다. 정부가 인플레이션 억제보다 표를 얻는 정책을 택할 것이므로 연준의 노력보다 정부 정책 리스크가 더 크다고 결론짓는다. [요약] 핵심 리스크는 (1) 연준의 조기 피벗 (2) 재정·인플레이션 부양책 (3) 저금리 부채 확대에 따른 물가 재가속이다. 연준이 긴축을 끝까지 유지할 가능성은 남아 있지만 정부 정책 방향은 정반대라는 것이 영상의 최종 메시지다.
다듬은 글
ray dalio is a billionaire hedge fund at mogul he founded bridgewater associates which is at this point the largest single hedge fund in the world he is to say the least insanely successful and one of the best investors to ever exist and one of the best businessmen alive as well when he speaks people listen and for good reason too now recently he went out and gave an interview and he spoke about a load of different things he spoke about china and its rising position in the world about a potential civil war in the united states and even what he'd do if he were president today though we're going to look at exactly what he said about stagflation we're going to look at an economic prediction that he made for the us over the next few years that has an awful lot of people very worried so what exactly did he have to say are we close to having circulation yeah we we are insane we are stagnation is simply where you know you have inflation and yet at the same time uh you have high unemployment yep you have economic weakness right in other words you you you have a stagnant economy stagnant yeah essentially means growth is reduced growth right low growth and with high inflation and that happens through this monetary situation that i'm describing in which the central bank tries to deal with a middle course in other words what does the central bank want not too high inflation and not too low growth and so when there's a lot of debt because one man's debts are another man's assets it becomes very difficult balancing act and that is when you have stagflation when you produce it so just like in the six uh 1960s late 60s we spent a lot of money on guns and butter we called it the vietnam war and social programs and so on we wrote too many checks relative to the money we had in the bank which was gold at the time 1971 the devaluation then they print a lot of money into that stagnation saturation so stagflation is trying to is the middle course when there's two different so the fed and jay powell uh has a balancing act that he has to achieve in order to try to ward off a recession right so think about it this way how does he literally fight inflation because everybody says tight funding policies and how do you fight inflation well that the way that happens is you get people to spend less by taking money away money and credit away from them so he will reduce the amount of money and credit that's available the federal reserve is going to sell 1.1 trillion dollars of um debt that that it has debt assets buys and then they're going to raise interest rates so they create a squeeze that reduces demand at the same time as people don't have enough money because inflation is high so that and their buying power is less that's right because inflation is higher the buying power is less and then what that act is is to reduce buying power again to reduce inflation but it comes at a big cost and that is stagflation so the first thing to note there is that actually a lot of people get stagflation wrong and that leads them to not really understand why we're talking about it today many people say that it has to be high unemployment that characterizes that economic stagnation but that just simply isn't the case it's simply a struggling economy in general which is often characterized by a poor job market but that isn't essential dalio is right the stagflation is already here because a recession is already here in the united states right now there has been so much news recently about biden and the democrats in general trying to convince the world that they've changed the definition of a recession the idea that they're pushing is that the nber a government-run organization decides what a recession is and no one else has any say here that is what the democrats have been screaming despite the fact that every economics teacher in the world would tell you something different and the fact that the nber is almost always a year to two years late when it comes to actually declaring a recession and they purely look at things in the past the simple truth is that the united states has now had two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth the united states is in a recession there is nothing else to it it's also true that the us is currently experiencing out of control inflation at 8.5 according to official figures with real figures far higher than that inflation is out of control at the same time as the economy is stagnant and actually declining ergo stagflation in here that isn't really up for debate the real worry here though is that this stagflation will last for decades as we've seen sometimes in the past throughout the 70s and the 80s economic turmoil was everywhere and stagflation characterized the economy of the united states and a bunch of other countries as well inflation was above 15 at times and prices just spiraled out of control and people spent all of their money on gas and food and rent and so businesses struggled to make a profit because there was no discretionary spending left over for the average person these businesses had no choice but to lay off their staff unemployment rose and a recession came now it was so difficult to fix because usually a government stimulates spending to try and fix a recession but that just made inflation even worse what else really can a government do then well they can loosen monetary policy as well to try and fix a recession they make capital and money cheaper in general but that also makes inflation worse because it stimulates the economy for about a decade governments focused on the wrong target they sought to improve the economy first and deal with inflation until later which simply didn't work because it caused inflation to exasperate itself eventually they did work out the right way to do it to fight inflation first and then the recession later on now how did they do that well it started with a man called paul volcker who was willing to make the tough decisions to go against the grain and to do what was needed frankly a lot of people myself included consider him a hero one who we desperately need back today we saw the government slash their investment in the economy and they hiked interest rates above 15 which is to say the least an insane amount now in the short term this caused an awful lot of pain markets crashed and businesses went bankrupt people lost their homes as mortgage rates soared overnight and everything seemed awful at first but after this happened inflation came down and a couple of years later then the economy was fixed as well the 70s and the 80s were characterized by stagflation because the government had to put into place policies which would hurt their people and hurt their re-election chances and that goes against every democratic inkling ever because all governments really want is to remain in power now what is dalio's terrifying prediction for the next few years then well he thinks that we're in for another sustained period of stagflation basically the federal reserve's middle course that it's trying for is the same kind of thing as what we saw happen in the 70s where the fed is now aiming for a balance in act trying to bring inflation down but without damaging the economy which will simply enhance pain in the future this is almost exactly what happened in the 70s the government and politicians themselves and the institutions as well sought to tackle inflation yes but they didn't want it to damage the economy and so they weren't willing to actually go far enough to have any real impact they didn't want to take money away from people even though it's the only real way to improve things in the long term and as a result they extended this massive amount of pain that stagflation caused for over a decade and made the whole thing so much worse now there are two big things happening right now which should send alarm bells ringing in your head making it very clear that we might be on the exact same path that we saw in the 70s and the 80s the first thing is that the market is pricing in a federal reserve pivot this has been happening over the entirety of the last six weeks of trading asset prices have been going up all based on this idea that the federal reserve will stop hiking interest rates they'll turn the money printer back on they won't even ever start quantitative tightening and business will boom as a result of that the market thinks that this is going to happen because in its view inflation is already over and it isn't a problem anymore which just goes against all viable data in reality what will happen if we see the fed go this direction is yes the economy will boom but so will inflation and we'll find ourselves in the exact same situation that the us found itself 50 years ago with an economy whose prices are spiraling out of control and in the end that will cause a recession in and of itself at this point in time bond yields are way lower than they should be the u.s 10-year treasury yield has been hovering around 2.7 percent for weeks now while inflation is sitting at 8.5 real interest rates right now as we speak are almost negative 6 capital has literally never been so cheap in history so why would anyone not take out as much debt as they can and this process of people acquiring debt causes inflation itself the best example of this is a bit of news that came out over the last week where apple announced they're releasing 5.5 billion dollars worth of company bonds purely to finance stock buybacks and dividends and google is doing the same thing where they announced a 10 billion dollar bond sale for the exact same reason now why are they doing this they don't need the cash well they're doing it because it's literally free money at a negative five percent real interest rate so why wouldn't they do this they'd be mad to take any other route this will increase the share price of apple and google it will also put more money in people's pockets and cause them to spend more as well this will allow apple and google to invest more in their businesses and cause them more growth and stimulate the economy as well now that all sounds good but the problem is this will all cause more inflation there's no way around it of course it isn't just apple and google doing this either other companies all over the country are doing the exact same thing small businesses too and even individual people they're taking out as much debt as they can and they're spending it because it's so ridiculously cheap and this will make inflation worse now the markets are expecting this to become even more common in the future and for the federal reserve to stop hiking rates sooner and to never even start quantitative tightening now if the markets are right it's pretty much game over and will be doomed to suffer stagflation for years to come we'll be doomed to price instability but there is a small silver lining here this is only what the market is pricing in it's what investors think will happen and they could be wrong many federal reserve members have been coming out and saying over recent weeks that this isn't going to happen but frankly the credibility of the federal reserve has been absolutely destroyed over the last two years so you can't trust a word they say that is though only one of the major problems that we're facing right now the fed might do the right thing in the end they might continue to hike rates to try and kill inflation but the us government is doing the polar opposite it's continuing to spend more money to make inflation worse kamala harris recently came out and tweeted this let's celebrate this the inflation reduction act will be our largest investment in climate action to date with more than 317 billion dollars invested the inflation reduction act will invest 370 billion dollars into the economy that will cause more inflation not less inflation this bill is named something popular to garner support from people who will never look past the headlines this policy that kamala harris is celebrating is literally the united states shooting itself in the foot but it was always going to happen but why is that well because all democrats really want is to be elected again and spending government money is by and large a popular thing for them to do the vast majority of people in the world will never see this video they'll never have anyone tell them the inflation reduction act will actually make things cost more money not less this is exactly what happened in the 1970s as well governments were too weak to undertake policies that were needed and instead they just made everything worse unfortunately that isn't the extent of this problem though because this problem happens at all levels of government and between both parties as well this isn't just a democrat problem these states that you can see behind me here are those who've decided to send out inflation relief checks to help people afford groceries and stuff because prices are just too high these days now on the surface that seems like a good popular policy that will help poor people who are struggling the problem is though that stimulus checks sent out in 2020 is the reason we have inflation today these extra checks will literally increase demand for goods and services and they will cause prices to go even higher this is quite literally the stupidest policy i've ever seen undertaken by multiple states in my life of course it isn't just blue states adopting these policies either as you can see the problem is though that these policies are popular politicians know that these stimulus checks will cause more inflation they know that they are actively harming their own country by putting this policy into place but they do it anyway because it gets them more votes from people who will simply never see this video unlike with the first problem where there's a chance that the federal reserve does do the right thing and does commit to fighting inflation the chances of the us government doing the right thing is almost nil they're already doing the wrong thing and setting the us up for another decade characterized by inflation by sawing in prices by economic pain all caused by a government acting against the interests of its own people ]
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