저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 머스크의 트위터 인수가 재무적으로 무리하며, 테슬라 주가와 머스크 개인 리스크를 키운다고 본다. 인수 자체에 대해: 2주 전 '머스크가 자금 능력이 없어 인수하지 않을 것'이라는 예측은 빗나갔다고 인정하며, 머스크를 과대평가했다고 말한다. 인수 가격과 거래 상황: 트위터 주가는 약 48달러, 딜 가격은 54달러 대로 거래되어 시장은 인수 불발 확률을 상당히 반영하고 있다. 인수가 성사되면 트위터 주주는 현금을 받아 이득이다. 재무 구조 리스크: 머스크가 테슬라 주식을 담보로 약 125억 달러 규모 마진론을 쓰는 구조라, 테슬라 주가가 급락하면 담보 유지 조건에 따라 저가에 주식을 강제 매도해야 할 위험이 있다. 넷플릭스 사례처럼 고평가 모멘텀 주가 70% 하락할 수 있다고 경고했다. 테슬라 관련: 테슬라는 실적 대비 과대평가되어 있으며 밈주식 성격이 강하다. 다음 실적 발표에서 실망하면 급락할 수 있어 머스크 관련 대량 보유자는 매도해야 한다고 조언했다. 트위터 경영 관련: 머스크가 비효율을 개선할 수 있을지는 인정하지만, 44조 원 규모 인수가를 정당화할 만큼 수익을 낼지는 모르겠다고 했다. 쉬프는 자신이 트위터 이용자로서 머스크 소유를 선호한다고도 밝혔다. 종합: 트위터 인수 자체보다 테슬라에 미칠 금융 리스크가 핵심 관심사다. 하락에 베팅하는 숏 세력이 머스크를 압박할 수 있다고 봤다. (본 영상은 2022년 4월 기준이며, 예측 시점이 과거라 현재 시점에서 검증 가능한 방향 예측은 대부분 무효이다.)
다듬은 글
Peter Schiff이 Megyn Kelly 쇼에 출연해 과거 예측을 수정하고 Elon Musk의 트위터 인수에 대해 자신의 견해를 밝힌 내용입니다. 원문은 영어 자막이므로 영어로 다듬었습니다.
two weeks ago Peter was on this show and said the following. I don't think Elon Musk has any intention of buying Twitter. I don't think he has the ability, the liquidity, to finance such a large purchase, so I think he's just having fun.
Well, Peter is back with us today to talk about that prediction, and also whether Musk buying Twitter is going to be a net benefit for all of the investors in his companies, like those who have bought Tesla. Welcome back, Peter. Good to have you.
Oh, thanks for having me back, Megyn.
Okay, so that was not correct. How'd you get it wrong?
Well, I guess I overestimated Musk's intelligence. I mean, he's obviously a smart guy, but he's not that smart, and sometimes smart people do foolish things. And I think buying Twitter is going to end up being probably the most foolish thing Musk did, if it in fact happens.
I mean, if you look at where the price of Twitter is trading, the market is obviously assigning a very large probability to the deal not going through. So it's still not a certainty that it's going to be done. And I think, for Musk and probably for Tesla shareholders, I would be hoping that it doesn't get done. If you own Twitter, it's a great deal, because Elon Musk is getting you out of jail. He's overpaying for Twitter, and Twitter is probably going to lose a lot of money while Musk owns it.
But the bigger problem, and why I thought Musk wouldn't do it, is that I didn't think he would want to sell his Tesla shares in order to buy Twitter. But more importantly, I didn't think he would want to pledge his Tesla shares as collateral for a loan. Yeah, which is what he's doing. Because who's to say that Tesla can't do what Netflix did? Netflix is now down 70% from where it was a few months ago, and there's no bottom in sight for that stock. The same thing could happen to Tesla. Tesla's stock price is way in the stratosphere compared to its actual earnings and valuation, and there's nothing that would prevent the stock from dropping 70% or more.
But if that were to happen, he would be forced to sell those shares into a very weak market in order to repay the lender, and who knows where that transaction would be priced. It would probably have to happen at a significant discount to the market. And I think that's why you saw Twitter stock down 11, 12% yesterday, and it was down 2% the day of the announcement. People are starting to think about this possibility. It's like waving a flag at a bull, or in this case a bear, when it comes to the shorts for Twitter. They smell blood, and I would expect the shorts to be piling into that stock, because they know if they can push the price down low enough, they're going to flush out Musk, and they'll be able to cover their shorts at a much lower price.
I think I understood what you're saying, but I was hanging on there by a thread. You're basically saying he's overpaying, and that if he has to actually dip into and sell some of his Tesla shares, that's a very bad thing for Tesla and for him. And since the value isn't in Twitter, it's smart to short this purchase, to bet that it's not going to work out, but it's not worth what it's trading for right now.
I don't know if the purchase is going to work out. If you think it is going to work out, Twitter is trading at about 48, and the deal price is 54 and change, so you make some good money if you buy it now and it goes through. But if it doesn't go through, then the question is what happens to the price of Twitter stock. It's probably going to end up being a lot lower. But my point is that the real risk is for Tesla. If Musk were to sell some Tesla stock now to buy Twitter, that's not that bad, because Tesla is overvalued and so is Twitter. The risk is that he doesn't sell his Tesla, he borrows money and pledges the shares, because then he could end up selling the shares at a much lower price than he would get if he sold them right now, since he'd be selling under distressed circumstances.
All right, the word that's coming to mind is buzzkill. You're a buzzkill. Come on, we're excited about this, because we want him to take over Twitter, to restore some semblance of balance in the big tech information wars.
Yeah, Megyn, I'm not against him owning Twitter. I use Twitter myself. I've got almost 700,000 followers, and I agree with a lot of what Musk is saying. I would like the forum to be more open. I don't like it being policed by the so-called correct, woke employees working at Twitter. I would much rather have a guy like Musk own it than current management. So I'm not objecting to this as somebody who uses Twitter. I think it's good for the user experience. I'm just talking about it as a financial analyst: is it a wise transaction for Musk, and what are the implications for Tesla shareholders?
I think it's great for Twitter shareholders. They get a bunch of cash and can invest in someplace else. I think it's a risk for Tesla shareholders, and a risk for Elon Musk himself as the largest Tesla shareholder. He's putting a good portion of his fortune in jeopardy. Now, I don't think he's going to go bankrupt, and he's not going to be poor. He could lose 100 billion dollars or more and still be very rich. So I'm not worried about Elon Musk. He has more money than he could ever spend. But a lot of the people who own his stock may have very large positions relative to their net worth, and those people should be selling. They are exposed to significant risk. Tesla was overpriced to begin with, but now this is another factor that could significantly weigh on the share price.
Don't you think Elon Musk can find efficiencies that were not being pursued by the current management, and that he will make Twitter better? He has a reputation for doing that at companies. I realize he's got three massive companies to run, so he's not going to be all that available, but he's got a pretty good track record of choosing the right companies and making them work.
Oh, I'm not saying he can't make Twitter better. Maybe he can make Twitter a more profitable business than it is now. Will he make it profitable enough that it'll be worth the 44 billion he's paying for it? I have no idea. But my only point is that that's irrelevant to Tesla stock.
You're saying, okay, wait, before we get to that, because we're going to dumb it down. So you're not saying he's not going to improve it, find efficiencies, and make the company more valuable? You're not saying he can't do that. You're saying your concerns are about the financing of this deal, and how it could drive down the Twitter value from the start. Okay, is that correct?
Well, the Twitter value, no, the Twitter value is irrelevant to anybody but Elon Musk and his partners, because the current shareholders are going to be gone. They're going to get cashed out of the deal and walk away. Can Musk make Twitter a more valuable company than it is today? Probably. But can he make it valuable enough to be worth the 44 billion he's paying? That's a much more difficult task, because I think he's overpaying for the company anyway, based on the assumption that he can make it far more valuable. So there are a lot of ifs there. But again, it's Elon Musk. He can take a chance. That's his money and his partners' money. What I'm talking about is the vulnerable position this puts Tesla in, as a company, when you've got somebody with a 12.5 billion dollar margin loan effectively against a huge position in Tesla, and Tesla is a very expensive stock. The momentum could break, the price could collapse. Look what's happening to so many of these other momentum stocks.
I think Tesla was the original meme stock, before GameStop and AMC. Tesla really was a meme stock. It was all about Elon Musk and his personality more than the actual profitability of the company. But anything can happen to change that momentum. Look what just happened to Robinhood. Robinhood is down 90%. That app was really popular on social media during the lockdowns, and now the company has imploded and is laying off a good percentage of its workforce. One stumble, one missed earnings report, and Tesla's most recent earnings were better and the stock went up, but it's one earnings announcement away from a potential crash. Having a guy short, or basically leveraged long, in this big position is very vulnerable, because if the price falls enough, the covenants in that loan are going to require the stock to be sold.
(광고 구간: Black Rifle Coffee 광고. 퇴역 군인이 설립한 프리미엄 커피 브랜드로, 콜롬비아·브라질산 원두를 테네시주 맨체스터와 유타주 솔트레이크시티에서 주 5일 로스팅하며, 가입 시 커피 구독 배송을 제공한다고 소개한다. 홍보 코드 MK로 20% 할인.)
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