저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 머스크의 트위터 인수는 실제 인수보다 시장 소란용 전략일 가능성이 크며, 주가는 이미 올라 있어 매수자는 과다 지불 위험이 있다. 머스크의 지분 및 이사회 논란: 머스크가 트위터 지분 약 9.2%(약 30억 달러)를 확보해 최대주주가 됐고, 회사 측은 그를 이사회에 올려 통제하려 했으나 그는 제약을 이유로 이사직을 거절했다. 인수 제안: 머스크는 주당 54.20달러, 기업가치 약 430억 달러의 '최종 제안'을 내놨고, 경영진을 신뢰하지 않는다고 밝혔다. 쉬프는 인수 의지와 자금력에 의문을 제기했다. 자금 조달 및 테슬라 영향: 인수에는 수백억 달러가 필요해 머스크가 테슬라 주식을 매도하거나 담보 대출을 써야 하며, 이는 테슬라 주가 하락과 마진콜 위험으로 이어질 수 있다고 봤다. 테슬라 주식 매각은 '트위터가 테슬라보다 낫다'는 메시지로 읽혀 테슬라에 부정적이라는 취지다. 트위터 주가 및 가치 판단: 트위터 주가는 머스크 지분 확보 이후 약 54% 상승한 상태로, 쉬프는 트위터 적정가가 주당 54달러에 못 미친다고 봤다. 제안을 수용하면 주주에게 유리하지만 경영진은 일자리 유지를 위해 거부할 가능성이 높다고 전망했다. 향후 전개: 머스크가 거래 불성사 시 지분을 매도할 수 있고, 그 경우 주가 급락 가능성이 있다. 이미 트위터 측 소송이 제기된 상태이며, 향후 매도 시 추가 소송 가능성도 언급됐다. 출연자 전망: 쉬프는 머스크 인수를 '엔터테인먼트'이자 블러핑으로 보며, 실제 인수보다 주가 부풀리기 후 이익 실현에 무게를 뒀다.
다듬은 글
let's kick it off with elon musk because this is kind of exciting i have to say i'm excited about this um we knew so just to bring the audience up to speed he he took over 9.2 percent of the uh twitter stock last week and what was a surprise to many of us about three billion dollars worth of stock making him their largest stockholder and twitter seemed to be having an oh crap moment in response to that and said um seem to believe that they could control musk if they put him on the board and got him to agree that he would buy no not much more if if he bought more it would amount to maybe just 14 15 but no more than that and that way there would be no hostile takeover and if he sat on the board he'd be prohibited from doing certain things he'd have a fiduciary obligation he wouldn't be able to tweet out weird things like should we turn the headquarters in san francisco into homeless shelter should we change the name from twitter to losing the w stuff that he was tweeting last saturday after it was announced he'd been joined he would be joining the board well then comes sunday and twitter tweets out the president tweets out he's decided not to join the board he didn't like all those restrictions it didn't sound like elon musk to be boxed in like that anyway and um so the daily the new york times the daily podcast was saying today something like he's not a 50 kind of guy and so there was already speculation about whether this was the beginning of a hostile takeover and especially when he refused to join the board and now we know i guess it is right so tell us in terms even i can understand what he's done today and how this is likely to go well today he's supposedly announced that he's made an offer to buy the entire company but you know i don't think elon musk has any intention of buying twitter i don't think he has the ability uh the liquidity to finance such a large purchase so i think he's just having fun i mean i don't know if it's just him being eccentric or maybe he has a plan maybe he thinks he'll be able to unload these twitter shares i mean he already has a pretty big paper profit on the position he has so maybe his goal is to get out into all the hype and make a little money uh but i i don't think he's going to buy the company i don't think it's worth what he is contemplating paying nor do i think he can finance the offer uh in the form that he's making it so even even elon musk cannot necessarily spare the cash to buy twitter he's the richest man remember yes but he's the richest man in the world in the world because of the paper value of his holdings predominantly uh you know in tesla but also in spacex but he would have to sell his stock in order to get the cash which would collapse the price of the stocks you know in order to to raise the cash and does he really want to do that does he really want to get rid of so much tesla to buy uh twitter and what does that say about what he believes the relative value of tesla is he would be sending a message to tesla shareholders that you know twitter's a much better buy than tesla that's why i'm dumping all my tesla uh to buy twitter and so even more people would would be dumping tesla so he doesn't have you know what is it 40 50 billion dollars in spare change lying around i doubt he's going to want to borrow the money and pledge his shares as collateral because what happens if he gets a margin call now he's in even worse position to have to liquidate those shares so again i think it's a bunch of noise maybe he's just having a lot of fun with the markets with the media and he may end up walking away with a nice profit and a lot of other people who tried to ride on his coattails will have overpaid for their twitter stock because yeah because already this the stock has gone up i think uh they said something like 54 percent uh just based on like post his initial investment so he's already if he sold his stock today he would have made some good dough on it but what he's saying now is he's offering 54 dollars and 20 cents per share he writes uh he says quote i have moved straight to the end quote i don't have confidence in management and um he says twitter has extreme potential i will unlock it uh but says this is his best and final offer and we put twitter as you point out is it at about a 43 billion dollar valuation well well first of all best and final offer i mean that could be a negotiating ploy uh so if he really wants twitter he will be he would be willing to pay more than that offer that's his opening uh salvo in this battle but again i don't think it's legitimate i do think he wants to price the twitter to go up but if you if you actually listen to what he just said he doesn't like the management he doesn't have any confidence in the management well if that is true and he isn't able to take over the company then why would he hold on to the stock he would sell it and i think he's basically laid the foundation for selling his shares if they don't accept his offer and for all we know he's already doing that i i don't know what the rules are as far as you know what he has to disclose but if he makes an offer and they turn it down there's nothing that says that he has to hold the stock is there any chance they do accept his offer i don't think so i mean i i think these guys want their jobs right i mean that's you know the management just generally wants wants to keep their jobs um you know and they want to say well it's not in the best interest of shareholders because we don't think that you could effectively manage the company who cares the stockholders will be out they're going to get cash they're not going to be shareholders anymore so that's just a ruse uh it doesn't matter if the shareholders think that 54 dollars is a good price then they should accept it and personally i think twitter is not worth 54 dollars a share uh and so i would just call elon's bluff and say yeah we accept and see but you know that that could also uh cause the stock to crash when he when he doesn't do it so i don't know i think they're in a tough spot so this is just entertainment that's what you think he's he's kind of known as a twitter troll in in what i think is a fun way sometimes it's gotten him in trouble it's gotten him sued um but this is this has already got him sued they've they've already had lawsuits now filed on behalf of twitter and i'm sure if he ends up selling his stock he's going to get sued for that too but he can't afford to pay lawyers he's got a lot of money for that that's absolutely right hey thanks so much for watching if you like what you just saw hit the subscribe button for more clips and full episodes
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