저자: Investment.People · 한국인
요약 보기
바닥을 맞추려 하지 말고 적립식 투자를 유지하라는 메시지. 미래는 아무도 알 수 없어 예측이 틀릴 수 있음을 인정하고, 하락장에서 손실은 불가피하나 규모는 통제 가능하다고 강조. TQQQ 같은 3배 레버리지는 MDD와 최악의 시나리오(90% 이상 하락 가능)를 미리 알고 분할매수·구간별 물타기 등 계획을 세워야 한다고 조언. 커버드콜의 장기 한계도 언급.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Investment. People try to cut the bottom, and if you look at the comments, you'll see many like this: "It seems like the downturn is starting now, but I sold over 80% this time." I understand the psychology of wanting to cut the bottom. However, I do n't think that is what investing is about.
If you look at past charts, you can clearly identify the bottom, and you can also clearly understand the reasons why it rose after hitting the bottom. But since investing is about thinking about the future, cutting the bottom is impossible. Who can know the future? The future unfolds completely differently from the past.
No matter what economist comes along— even Warren Buffett, or even his grandfather—no one knows. Peter Lynch said something similar: "If you spend 14 minutes on an economic forecast, you have wasted 12 minutes." No one knows the future. Not knowing means, in other words, that you can be wrong— or rather, that the probability of being wrong is very high.
Therefore, if you invest in a bear market, you are bound to incur losses. It means you cannot make money without losing money. So, even if your profits have significantly decreased, turned into losses, or your account is heading in the wrong direction, it is not your fault. If you intend to make a big win with a single purchase, cutting the bottom is important.
However, since we practice dollar-cost averaging, cutting the bottom isn't that important. The stock price will inevitably fall below the purchase price. You might think, "If it drops after I buy this time, I'll just buy more. The next purchase will be at a much lower price, so the price per square meter will drop even further." You will end up buying even near the bottom.
Therefore, this type of dollar-cost averaging is also bound to end at the bottom. If it were an individual stock, even if it dropped 30% or was cut in half, you couldn't simply say it was cheap. If it is falling like that, there is bound to be a reason for it. And because of that reason, a stock that was cut in half ends up dropping to -60% or -70%.
In fact, it wouldn't be surprising if the value of an individual stock became zero. That is why you should not recklessly grab individual stocks while they are falling. However, the overall index is different. As always, the overall index eventually recovers halfway. And that recovery does not stop at a 20-30% rise.
If you are continuing your current investment and responding steadfastly with dollar-cost averaging, we will all reap those profits. However, there is something to be careful about. "What's the problem? My invested money has been cut in half. Are you okay? Can you handle it?" If you are investing three times your initial investment, it will not end with just a 50% loss.
You must keep watering. Is it okay to be down 80% even after buying? You cannot avoid losses in investing. Losses are inevitable; it is not my fault, and there is nothing I can do about it. However, the scale of the loss is different. While I cannot control whether a loss occurs, I can fully control its magnitude.
It means it is not unavoidable. As stock prices fall, it is not greed that arises, but rather increasing anxiety. If that is the case, it likely means you started buying without thinking. Many people start buying without knowing the pros and cons of the products they are investing in, and you absolutely must not do that.
For example, holding on without knowing the product's Maximum Drawdown (MDD)—the difference between its historical maximum drawdown—is not right. You don't need to go as far as the dot-com bubble. You shouldn't just blindly buy without knowing how much TQ or SQ fell during the COVID-19 pandemic just four years ago, or knowing it but making no preparations.
You must keep the worst-case scenario in mind. Before buying stocks, you must first understand the pros and cons of the product. Are you currently investing in TQ? What are the downsides of TQ? Are you aware that it can drop by more than 90% in the event of an economic crisis? What preparations have you made accordingly?
You are likely aware that investing in covered calls means that both the stock price and dividends tend to trend downward in the long term. You also know that ultimately, even if you combine your principal and dividends, it is difficult to earn more than your initial investment. What preparations have you made for this?
If you do not know the downsides of the product you are investing in, you cannot prepare for the worst-case scenario; consequently, long-term investing becomes impossible. If you truly want to invest for the long term, if you want to respond calmly to any situation, and if you want to become an investor who ultimately wins, you must be aware of the various possible scenarios and prepare accordingly.
So, what kind of plan would a leveraged investor have? Mindlessly buying in installments every payday is fine. However, if you are investing three times the leverage, your account could be cut in half even doing this. It’s terrible, isn't it? In that case, you need to devise a plan to manage the situation.
You can cut your investment in half and save the other half; if a large loss occurs, you can set a target range—for example, -20% or -40%—and average down all at once. Alternatively, you can average down only when the price drops by more than $1, or like me, you can increase your investment every time it drops by 20%.
I also consider the "puddle trading" method a good alternative. There are various alternatives. You can. To summarize: investors do not need to see the bottom. You can be wrong. It is okay to be wrong. So, do not be afraid of making mistakes and start dollar-cost averaging. You must set up a plan in advance to cope when the market moves contrary to your expectations.
That is all for today's video. If you found this video helpful, please like and subscribe. Thank you.
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