저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
투자 후 '매도 타이밍'을 다루며, 반도체 3배 레버리지(SOXL)는 사이클상 고점에서 이익 실현이 필요하다고 주장. 이격도 220.7%, RSI 72.45로 과열 구간이라 분할 매도 시작을 권고. 역추세 매도(RSI 80, 이격도 150~180% 기준)와 추세 추종 매도(트레일링 스탑 30%, 5일-20일 데드크로스)를 비교하고, 최종적으로 본인 성향에 맞는 매도 원칙을 세우라고 강조.
다듬은 글
Looking at the comments on my channel recently makes me feel really proud. There is a flood of verification posts coming in from people saying they actually made a profit after watching my previous videos on speed buying timing . Actually, they seem to be more skilled than me . Because I sold it quite a long time ago.
Anyway, since it seems you want to talk about selling, I am going to talk about selling today . It's impossible to get the timing right. So, you shouldn't sell while investing in stocks . There are really a lot of sayings like this. And it's not wrong. I also think this philosophy is correct if it is an index-tracking fund .
However, I do n't think this suits the inside. Why? This is because the speed is not a simple index. I am investing in the highly volatile semiconductor sector, and with triple leverage at that. The semiconductor cycle is clear. If you do not lock in your profits when the market rises, you could end up losing all the money you have earned when a downturn cycle hits .
In fact, even when comparing TQ and speed, TQ shows an upward trend, but speed does not. Stocks are really easy. You just need to buy when it's cheap and sell when it's cheap . It's really simple. However, there are two main ways to sell when it is expensive. One is a counter-trend following method where you sell in advance, thinking "this is enough," when stocks are continuously rising like now.
For the other one, let's follow it all the way to see where the top is . From this perspective, there is a trend-following method where you confirm that the trend is reversing and sell . Today, I would like to start by talking about selling in a counter-trend. In particular, counter-trend selling involves selling when the price is rising .
If you consider how to sell when the price goes up, I think this perspective fits well. From the perspective of average return, stocks that are excessively correct are bound to fall. So, let's consider what indicators might be used to look at excessive increases from the perspective of average regression .
The first thing I brought is the RSI indicator. What I want to talk about is the RSI 80. Why 80 of all numbers? Mathematically, an RSI of 80 means that the force trying to raise the stock price recently is four times stronger than the force trying to lower it . It means this. I view this not as a normal flow, but as a clear tourist trip.
The second is the 181 moving average divergence. Stock prices eventually tend to return to the average, you know . The 181 line is the average price over the past 7 to 8 months. It's like home . I have a nature that if you leave home, you should come back . The standard for deviation is always 100%.
I consider the state where the current stock price and the average price meet exactly as 100% . If the deviation is higher than 100%, it means that the stock price is higher than the average. On the other hand, a deviation of 100% means that the stock price is cheaper than the average. If the deviation is 80%, it means a bargain of 20% off the average price, which is significant .
It might be a good spot to buy and scoop up. It is 130 to 150%. This means that it is 3 to 50 percent higher than the average and is gradually entering an overheating phase . 150 to 180% means it is 50 to 80% higher than the average, and it might be time to start the first round of split selling . As of May 15, 2025, the 181 2-level becomes 7, which is 220.7 .
220.7 means that the current stock price is more than twice as expensive as the average over the past six months . A deviation of 200% or more is actually not a deviation figure that is likely to occur . Even from a statistical perspective, I believe that such divergence indicates a high probability of a stock price decline from the perspective of the mean return .
In addition, the RSI is 72.45. It is 5. Although it does not reach the RSI of 80 that I mentioned earlier, it can be considered to have fully entered the overbought and overheated zone . This means that over the past two weeks, the energy on the rising days was overwhelmingly stronger than on the falling days.
If you have n't sold all at once so far, I believe now is the perfect time to start your first round of split selling . It is actually not easy to find an overheating zone worse than a deviation of 200% or more and an RSI of 70 or more . While others are shouting "Let's go!", we are cashing out our profits little by little .
Uh, I will also briefly talk about the trend selling strategy . If looking at the RSI or divergence charts mentioned earlier is a forecast to see dark clouds and evacuate in advance, trend following is a strategy of moving when the real bay begins to fall . It's a strategy of identifying the peak, confirming the head, and selling at the shoulders.
Let's look at two main things. The first is the trailing stop. This is a method to continuously check the previous high. It is to establish a strategy of identifying the previous high and selling when it typically drops about 10% from that high . In the case of soju, it's three times the sector. Then, in the case of the inside, you decide to sell when it has fallen 30% from the previous high.
This is a trailing stop. The second is the dead cross of the 5-day and 20-day moving averages . The 5-day line represents short-term trends, and the 20-day line represents the monthly average. However, if the 5-day moving average falls below the 20-day moving average, it means that the average over the past 5 days is lower than the average over the past month .
In other words, it means that this could be the start of a decline . It is a signal to acknowledge that the trend has ended and lock in profits. Perhaps doing it this way would be a good idea . The first split sale is based on a counter-trend estimation. When the RSI exceeds 80 and the divergence widens, as is the case now, you sell half of your holdings in installments.
And after that, I think it might be a good idea to proceed with trend estimation for the remaining half . The remaining volume is the trailing stop we just learned, which is the method of confirming the previous high and selling everything when it drops 30% . Alternatively, you can also try selling in installments starting from the point where a dead close appears .
If you sell in installments like this, you can take profits even near the peak. Even if it goes up further, you could maximize your profits with the remaining volume. Today, we also looked at counter-trend following indicators such as the RSI 80-180 moving average divergence, and trend estimation indicators such as the trailing stop dead close.
But here is something really important I'm going to tell you. Ultimately, what is more important than all these indicators tell you is establishing selling principles that suit you. You ask yourself a question. Do I sleep well at night only if I take profits in advance when stock prices go up ? In that case, the counter-trend estimation is correct.
Or do you absolutely have to confirm the turnaround, even if the profit from the peak decreases a bit, to avoid regret? If so, the trend estimation is correct . There is no right answer to this. The most important thing is that it fits my personality and situation . No matter how much others say that you have to ride the trend to the end to be a true expert, if my mind is anxious and my daily life is shaken, that is not the right strategy for me .
We are n't gamblers aiming for a whole semester's worth of money at once. That is why my own principles need to be even more solid . I hope you will take some time to study the RSI, deviation, trailing star, and dead close discussed today to see which one suits you best . That's all for today's video. I wish you all successful investments. thank you
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