저자: MarcFaber&ToddHorwitz · 외국인
요약 보기
금·은·백금 등 귀금속은 법정화폐 신뢰 약화와 인플레이션 속에서 장기적으로 유지될 자산이며 단기 조정은 큰 추세를 바꾸지 않는다. 금 2026년 6,000달러, 은 80달러 가능성 제시. 미국 주식은 2026년 하락 및 40~60% 폭락 가능성, 거품 경고. 신흥국(동남아·라틴아메리카) 상대적 매력, 태국 상업은행 언급. 실질금리 음수 환경은 귀금속에 우호적. 레버리지 위험 경고.
다듬은 글
I do expect a little bit of a pullback in precious metals, but you know when they sort themselves out, okay, I think that precious metals will be the place where people will go because remember one other thing, the fiat currency system that we un that we're all live under, okay, is a manipulated garbage that is controlled by the central banks.
I believe that if things happen the way I think they happen, you may at some need to have golds and silver as a currency again. You know, if we get as ugly as it can get, you may need gold and silver as a currency. I own silver and I will never sell my silver. And I own gold and platinum and I will never sell them because as long as I see these clowns in central banks and supported by their troops of additional clowns in governments, I rather own precious metals than anything else except maybe stocks.
A short-term pullback in precious metals would not change the bigger picture. Periods of consolidation are part of every major trend, especially when prices move ahead of sentiment. Once that adjustment runs its course, capital tends to rotate back toward assets that offer durability when confidence elsewhere erodess.
Todd Bubba Horwitz, a longtime market strategist, and Dr. Mark Faber, a veteran global macro investor, frame this moment as less about price and more about trust. They argue that fiat currencies are structurally weakened by constant intervention from central banks and policymakers, making them unreliable as long-term stores of value.
In that environment, gold and silver regain relevance not just as investments, but as potential monetary anchors if financial stress deepens. Their view emphasizes ownership over trading, holding precious metals as insurance against systemic risk, political missteps, and currency debasement. While equities may still have a role, tangible assets stand apart because they exist outside the banking system and cannot be printed into excess.
Now, we present the clips from their interview. Before we continue to discuss this, please subscribe to our channel and activate the bell icon for timely updates. Thank you and enjoy the video. I I would expect and I would not be surprised to see gold touch 6,000 at some point during the year of uh of 2026.
I wouldn't be surprised to see silver hit over 80. And of course, platinum is on a run that we haven't seen for for a long long time. Uh and I expect those to continue to run because we've got massive inflation. Although the numbers don't show it, but the numbers are not accurate. Uh you've got a lousy monetary policy which will create problems and you have what we call a K-shaped economy which again we know that that that only the upper 10% or so are benefiting from anything that's going on.
You've got a lot big loss of jobs. I think the equity markets after being up double digits the last three years in a row. Only once in history have they made it four years in a row and I don't think it'll be this year. I think there will be some sort of a pullback, but I think overall we'll find a level of of new support and see buyers come in.
I I think what's different about the economy today than 2011, which you brought up and and of course I was trading on the floor in those days. Uh I think the the rally then was easier that it was going to sell off because the economy was still in relatively good shape. Now with all the monetary policy and what's going on with the Federal Reserve and their ridiculous policies, uh you're seeing more of a run to the precious metals.
You're seeing that flight to safety for inflation, not for equities, but for inflation. And I don't think inflation is coming down, David. I think when you look at the bigger picture, and you go back, if you go back just to 1985, which is 40 years ago, the average house was 25,000. Excuse me, the average income was 25,000.
The average house was 75,000. In other words, three times your annual income. Today, the average income is 70,000. The average house is 500,000. So, it's almost 7 and a half times your income, which is telling you that nothing is keeping up with inflation other than the precious metals. And I don't see with the bad monetary policy and massive amounts of debt that's being created by the government, I see no reason to believe that they're not going to continue to accumulate gold, uh, especially the central banks, which we're watching this happening in right in front of our eyes.
And look, like I said, there will be pullbacks. I never think any market's going to go as parabolic as they are going right now. But at the end of the day, new money buyers will come in and I think they'll push these up. You know, if I go back in history, when I first started trading on the floor, the Dow was 800.
Now it's 48,000. So, think about that. And I think gold will do the same thing. I do expect a little bit of a pullback in precious metals. But yeah, you know, when they sort themselves out, okay, I think that precious metals will be the place where people will go because remember one other thing, the fiat currency system that we that we're all live under, okay, is a manipulated garbage that is controlled by the central banks.
I believe that if things happen the way I think they happen, you may at some need to have golds and silver as a currency again. You know, if we get as ugly as it can get, you may need gold and silver as a currency. So, I expect those to continue. Now the initial sell off listen there's nothing safe if if what I think h is going to happen happens no asset class is safe in the initial part of the sell off because the first part you see the panic sell and then you see people reaching for strong assets they have like gold like silver like platinum they start selling those to cover the margin calls of what they have but overall I believe that gold and silver will be able to maintain and I don't think they'll have a massive collapse in gold and silver as I think you'll see I expect to see 40 to 60% in the equities.
And I'm not saying it'll be all next year, but I think over the the next run will be 40 to 60% lower. I own silver and I will never sell my silver and I own gold and platinum and I will never sell them because as long as I see these clowns in central bank and supported by their troops of additional clown in government, I rather own precious metals than anything else except maybe stock.
But uh we have to define you know the relative attractiveness of stock compared to precious metals etc. Someone would have to make a very strong case for me to sell gold. You understand right? He would have to prove to me that a central banker is of the quality of say Paul Vulkar or of say the old school of central bankers that uh paid attention to the purchasing power of money.
The new central bankers basically want uh to boost asset prices and make sure that asset prices don't decline because they're afraid that the declining asset market would destroy the economy which is likely to be the case but it's doesn't justify the printing of money. Mhm. But as I said, I hold gold and I hold silver and platinum and uh I've held them for the last 40 50 years.
So uh the daily fluctuations do not particularly interest me. My interest is I want to have an asset that over time maintains its purchasing power. I'm not saying it will go up. Gold could go down by say 50% but the Dow Jones could go down by 90%. So in gold terms I would have made money compared to the Dow Jones.
You understand? Yes. It's all relative. You can become rich in a deflationary environment. Say you you have assets of 100. No your neighbor he also has assets of 100. your neighbor's asset declined by say 80% and your asset declined by 50%. So you're relatively speaking richer than your neighbor. Now
the outlook for precious metals remains constructive despite expectations of short-term volatility. A pullback would not invalidate the broader trend, especially in an environment defined by persistent inflation, weak monetary policy, and growing debt burdens. Gold pushing toward the $6,000 level in 2026.
Silver holding well above recent highs and platinum extending a long- aaited breakout. All fit within a landscape where purchasing power continues to erode. What separates this cycle from past rallies is the underlying economic stress. A K-shaped economy, widening inequality, job losses, and overstretched equity valuations suggest risk assets are vulnerable to a deeper correction.
History shows that when confidence fades, capital eventually seeks refuge in assets that preserve value over time. While initial sell-offs can pressure everything, precious metals tend to stabilize faster as investors refocus on protection rather than growth. Over longer horizons, relative performance matters more than nominal swings, and tangible assets continue to stand out as monetary anchors in an increasingly unstable system.
Let's get back to the interview. My view is that precious metals can go up at the same time. Interest rates go up and sometimes [clears throat] gold and silver go up when interest rates come down. I mean, there isn't a magic formula. But in general I'd say that when interest rates are negative in real term in other words say inflation is 6% and your 10 years treasury is 4% then you have negative real interest rates.
Uh in that case the environment is relatively favorable for precious metals. When interest rates say would be 15% and inflation 8% then the environment is relatively unfavorable for precious met at the end of 24 people said how come gold is up and the GDX doesn't move. Mhm. So that's why I say the markets are very funny.
Sometimes this happens and sometimes that happens and we have to be very careful that because something has happened for three four years in a row. Say now Bloomberg had a survey of uh strategists and analysts and you know economists and all of them were bullish about stocks for 2026. This comes because for the last 10 years, US stocks have gone up every year.
But it doesn't mean that it will continue. My view would be that 26 the stock market in the US will go down. Now, how will it go down? Will it go down uh say from 40,000 to 20,000 or does it go down because the price goes from 40,000 to 50,000 but the currency collapses? that we don't know. In my view, the US stock market is a colossal bubble.
Not the only one. There was other asset bubbles like residential real estate in some cities. But but in general, if you ask Mark, what do you regard as relatively safe? Then I would say precious metals. I don't think they're particularly cheap. You know, if you ask me about the cheap commodity, I would say oil.
Crude oil is very cheap at the moment and agricultural commodities are in general reasonably priced but uh it's difficult for you and me to store 10 tons of crude oil. You understand? Our garden is maybe not large enough. No, we're ahead of a massive recession. But equally, we may have World War II.
You understand? We have World War II. I can tell you that the rare earth metal, not all but some, will go ballistic. The ones that are used in the defense industry, they are 95% controlled by China. By the way, uh that's why the trade war with China really doesn't make any sense. Only a complete ignorant, arrogant, narcissistic person would engage in a trade war with China.
But this is what the US president has done at the present time. Anyway, these rare earths, they're rare that I mean, China can stop exporting any of them. And then the defense industry in the western world collapses. At the beginning of 2025, in other words, a year ago, January 2025, Goldman Sachs had a conference and then they asked that the participants which market would perform the best
and uh Gold Coleman said that the majority of participants argued that the US would be the best performing market as it had been for most years since 2010. But as it happened, as you know, many emerging markets and the European markets have performed much better than the US in 20125 last year. And we have to be very careful about the consensus that everything will go up.
I think uh we may be in an environment where regardless interest rates go up or interest rates go down, it will be bad for asset price especially for US stock. Emerging markets in my view are more attractive because the valuations are relatively low both in Latin America and in Southeast Asia. I mean you take Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand and so forth.
the valuations are relatively low. So these markets may also go down if everything goes down but go down less. I think the economic out in emerging markets uh is rather favorable but we need peace. The peace is the precondition. Yes. And one of my favorite asset classes. I mean people will say you're crazy and so but I think Thai bank Thai commercial banks are relatively attractively priced.
Bangkok bank commercial bankon kungai and so I think they're okay. I think well I think banks are in trouble as well. I think the banks are overleveraged. Uh I think they're being hidden because of the the Fed cutting rates but I think the banks are overleveraged. I think they've lent out far more than they're supposed to.
I mean that 10 to1 is a joke anyways, but when you're a banker and you can borrow money from the Federal Reserve and let's say we use a round number, you can borrow a million dollars from the Federal Reserve, take that into your balance sheet, take that liability, turn it into an asset, and then relend out 10 million.
So you're lending out money you don't have anyways. Okay? So again, this whole fractional banking, this whole banking system is is is designed for them to fail because listen, where else what other business could you have that you could make a fortune, lend out as much money as you want, and if you fail, the Federal Reserve, the federal government's going to come and bail you out.
The only thing that rate cuts help is the big money, the banks. Okay? That's the only and the government debt. That is the only thing that lower rates will help. The average guy, you and me, it's the rate cuts aren't going to help us. Okay? that we're not going to get a benefit on our mortgage rates right now.
And I think that's the bigger issue that we continue to talk about is is the way that again you have to somehow stop the government spending that it all relates back to the massive government spending. The federal government was never meant to be, for example, the biggest employer in the world. Okay?
It was meant to be an overseer. The constitution states that government should be run city, county, state, and the federal government overlooks it. But that's not the case anymore. and and again the massive amounts of debt that they create, the things that they're doing, the willingness and the wanting to have rates cut lower, which again does not help anybody.
Okay, except the banks. We use the option market. I mean, but you know, the only true hedge against real inflation is is precious metals. Uh that's the only that's going to be tried and true. And I would suspect that cryptocurrency might be something but not quite as safe and tried and true as as the metals.
Uh but certainly uh if you're an equity holder, using options against your portfolio and creating a a back ratio spread to determine risk is very easily done and that will protect you against any major move. I mean, I know my portfolio has got a maximum risk of 4%. Now March, so I'm not worried and I'll continue to accumulate assets between now and March.
I think the one resolution for everybody is invest what you can afford to invest. The broader takeaway is that markets are entering a phase in which traditional relationships no longer provide reliable guidance. Precious metals can rise with falling rates or rising rates because the real driver is confidence in money itself.
When real rates remain negative and debt continues to expand, gold and silver retain their role as monetary insurance. At the same time, long-running equity optimism has created complacency, particularly in US stocks that now reflect bubble-like valuations after years of uninterrupted gains. A downturn does not need to arrive through collapsing prices alone.
It can just as easily come through currency debasement that erodess real returns. In that environment, leverage becomes the real enemy, not volatility, capital preservation, sensible positioning, and exposure to assets that protect purchasing power matter more than chasing consensus trades. Precious metals may not be cheap, but they remain among the few assets designed to withstand inflation, policy errors, and systemic stress.
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