저자: MartinArmstrong&MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
미 국세청·뉴저지주의 금 거래 규제 사례를 들어 정부가 자산을 임의로 재분류·몰수할 수 있다고 주장. 유럽 전쟁 시 자본이 달러로 쏠리고, 유로 구조 결함으로 국채·은행 위기가 올 수 있다고 봄. 주식시장 과대평가로 디플레이션 붕괴 가능성을 제기하며, 귀금속 비중(전세계 약 1%)이 낮아 확대가 필요하다는 분산투자·해외 보관을 권고.
다듬은 글
We have decided that you are a bank. I said, "Am I a bank?" Well, the Constitution never demonetized gold , so that's really money. Uh, we understand that you didn't realize it was a bank. I said, "No, I didn't realize." And then they say, "Okay, fine. I was supposed to report every transaction of $10,000 or more.
And the penalty is $50,000 per transaction." A further fall in, uh, gold and silver is, of course, a possibility ; But we must realize that, although gold, silver, and platinum have risen significantly in comparison to financial assets and the size of the stock market and the global bond market, precious metals are not very large in terms of asset allocation.
Global monetary structures are approaching a dangerous tipping point as rising sovereign debt and aggressive financial regulations put pressure on private capital. Bureaucratic institutions constantly exploit arbitrary administrative authority to reclassify ordinary trade , penalizing independent asset holders to mask deeper fiscal insolvency.
Economic cycle analyst Martin Armstrong and veteran global investment strategist Marc Faber demonstrate how systemic policy failures are rapidly triggering a historic macroeconomic readjustment. Armstrong predicts that the escalation of military warfare across Europe will trigger a massive international flight to safety, directing foreign liquidity directly into the US dollar, just as historical crises did during World War I and World War II.
Simultaneously, Faber predicts that the overinflated stock market will experience a severe deflationary collapse . Furthermore, Armstrong projects that the structural flaws of the euro currency, which transferred monetary volatility directly to vulnerable domestic bond markets and bank reserves, will culminate in widespread sovereign defaults that Western political leaders will blame on external adversarie.
You need to realize that they have a pen, okay? And that with that pen they can prohibit anything they want. Take, you know , I mean, I used to be in the gold business. I retired after 1980. The IRS came in and said, "Well, we've decided you're a bank." I said, "Am I a bank?" Well, the Constitution never demonetized gold , so that's really money.
We understand you didn't realize you were a bank. I said, "No, I didn't realize." And then they say, 'Well, that's fine. He was supposed to report every transaction of $10,000 or more. And the fine is $50,000 per transaction." I looked at the guy. I said to him, "What? You just want the keys ? Is that what this is all about?" No, no, no.
We understand that you didn't know. Uh, basically, we want to reach an agreement. Just let us in and audit all the people they've been buying from and selling to. They requested more than 3,000 clients. They can do that with a Bitcoin. Oh, you're a bank. You're, you're undermining. It's just one, a matter of, of, of pen.
That's true. The state of New Jersey intervened and said, "No, no, no. We declare them merchants." "Now, I'll tell you how crazy this was. In 1975, when gold was legalized, State Senator Wolfe came to see me and asked me to draft the law for the state of New Jersey so that gold wouldn't be taxable, because once you started trading it on the exchange, it couldn't be subject to sales tax.
I said, 'Okay, fine.'" "I drafted the law and it said: "Okay, gold is not, you know, subject to sales tax unless it is converted for use." "Again, after 1980, the state of New Jersey appears, and what do you say to that?" Oh, well, we decided you're a trader. "I said, 'Well, the IRS just said I'm a bank.'" "Very well.
And they said, 'Well, you should have been collecting sales tax.'" "I said:" No, in fact I drafted the law. "I took them to court and lost. That's fine. When I went, they didn't even let me testify. The government said, 'We admit he wrote the law.'" He may have misinterpreted what the Senate actually asked him to draft.
"That's when J.P. Morgan had to lend $100 million in gold to bail out the Treasury. Uh, it was World War I and World War II that made the United States the biggest economy. Great Britain was the biggest before. They lost that title after World War I. And, uh, that's really what caused 1929, uh, all of this.
Okay, so what will happen when the war starts there in Europe is that capital will come to the dollar first. Yes. Like it did with World War I and World War II. Okay. Uh, Europe is, it's a failed system. When they were creating the euro, they also came to see me. And I warned them that, uh, they were saying, 'Oh, everyone will pay the same interest rate.'" Um, I said, "What you're doing is just propaganda.
It's not going to work." Uh, I said, "They need to consolidate the debts." And what happened was Kohl of Germany. Um, he refused to consolidate the debts of all the members. Mainly because he knew that the German people would never vote to join the euro. And you can verify this. He admitted that he acted like a dictator.
Germans were never given the right to vote. He unilaterally brought them to the euro. And what he did to achieve this was to refuse to allow debt consolidation. So I warned them, and this is Europe's failing . They simply transferred currency volatility to the bond markets. Do you want to sell Italy and want to arbitrage Italy against Germany?
What do you do? You sell the bonds and buy the Germans . Exact. Alright . You used to do that with the coin. So, bonds have become the foreign exchange markets. That's all. And that's the problem with Europe. And you see the peripheral areas, interest rates are higher than in the core. Um, everything they promised about the euro isn't working out.
Then you have the credibility of the banking system. To be fair and equitable, a bank must have its reserves distributed among all members. It cannot harm Italy against Spain, etc. Alright. So banks are now vulnerable to the same volatility problems when they look at bonds, because they transferred it from currency to bonds.
If there is a default in Greece, Italy, Spain or wherever, that then spreads and brings down the northern banks. It's a real disaster. Uh, so they know these things. Alright . That's why I honestly believe they are pushing for war as an excuse for not having failed. Uh, it's not that they designed the euro incorrectly .
Oh, it's Putin. Exact. You know, you already had someone else. Yes, you already had Biden saying, oh, it's Putin's inflation. No, it isn't , you know, but they need an external enemy to blame so they don't have to take responsibility for what they 've done. Global financial markets currently exhibit a staggering structural imbalance, with equity valuations and sovereign debt volumes massively detached from the underlying physical assets.
Institutional and private portfolio allocations to gold and silver represent barely 1% of global wealth, while mining companies account for less than 1% of the total S&P 500 market capitalization. Conventional investors remain excessively exposed to volatile stocks, domestic real estate, and high-flying technology companies, holding virtually no tangible protection.
While paper contracts frequently experience short- term consolidations, physical metals function as an essential hedge against severe declines in financial assets. Rebalancing the portfolio by moving away from overextended paper markets towards unburdened physical commodities provides a vital defensive anchor against widespread portfolio destruction .
Now, let's get back to the interview. A further decline in gold and silver is, of course, a possibility; But we must realize that, although gold, silver, and platinum have risen significantly relative to financial assets and the size of the stock market and the global bond market, precious metals are not very large in terms of asset allocation.
In fact, globally, perhaps around 1% is allocated to precious metals, and within the S&P 500 , mining companies represent less than 1% of market capitalization. Now, of course, I admit that the stock market capitalization is probably very inflated. You understand that it's going to deflate very badly.
But despite that, within a deflation in financial assets in terms of the size of the stock market and the capitalization of the bond market as a percentage of the global economy. In that scenario, I suppose gold and mining stocks would fall less than , say, investor favorites like SpaceX, Tesla, Nvidia, and Micron Technology.
Therefore, as an investor, I still think people should have an allocation in precious metals, and they should probably have much more in precious metals than they currently do. Because when you go out and talk to people and you say, you know , what do you invest in? And, of course, they'll say: yes, we have gold.
But how much? You know, compared to the real estate they own, compared to the allocation to, say, the semiconductor stocks they own, and so on. It's probably very little. And my opinion is that in this world that seems increasingly desperate, with wars and heading towards a major crisis at some point in the future.
In this environment, I think people should be thinking, "How do I lose the least amount of money?" And precious metals are probably a way to lose less money. Given the uncertainty about what the world will look like in 5 years, and the many possibilities because Mr. Trump changes his mind all the time , he is very impulsive and not exactly a deep thinker.
But I would advise people to diversify. And I would advise diversifying into different asset classes, including real estate, stocks, precious metals, commodities, and different sectors within the market. But I would also advocate for geographical diversification, because, let's say I'm in the United States: if I have all my money in gold in the United States, and suddenly Mr.
Trump wakes up in the morning and says, "Oh, it might be a good idea to take the gold away from the citizens and put it in our vaults." "Uh, then you could be in trouble. I don't think they'll do that. But I do think they'll take the gold and pay for it. But they pay for it with dollars that will then be worthless.
So, under these conditions, you'll want to have some of your assets in other countries, not in the U.S. or wherever you happen to be. If you're in Zimbabwe, you'll want to keep some money outside of Zimbabwe. And if you're in Canada, you'll want to keep some money outside of Canada. And don't think you have anything outside of a country if you have a custodial account and all the securities are, say, on State Street, Boston, or in New York, at Manufacturers Hanover, at JP Morgan; you have to have the account physically or the precious metals physically in Russia or China or Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong, London, wherever.
So , individuals should prepare. I'm telling you, people should prepare for, I mean, really a once-in-a-lifetime crisis that will be devastating for asset holders. Devastating. People haven't seen that They won't lose much, but they will also suffer because once those with assets lose out, their consumption will decrease and there will be less economic activity.
Relying entirely on domestic financial institutions and centralized custody arrangements exposes private capital to existential political and counterparty risks. Governing bodies can rewrite legal boundaries with the stroke of a pen, transforming legal wealth into restricted or confiscated property.
During sovereign debt emergencies , desperate administrations have historically nationalized private gold reserves , forcing citizens to accept newly printed fiat currency that rapidly deteriorates to worthlessness. Holding metals through domestic brokerages or institutional custodians like JP Morgan or State Street offers no genuine protection against territorial mandates.
True wealth preservation requires broad diversification into productive real estate, physical commodities, and tangible bullion stored entirely outside national borders. Bullion accounts should be held in physical vaults within independent international jurisdictions such as Singapore. Dubai, Hong Kong, or London.
When speculative paper assets evaporate, consumer spending collapses dramatically, dragging global business activity into a prolonged standstill. Establishing secure physical custody across neutral foreign territories remains the only reliable shield against arbitrary sovereign excess . .
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