저자: MartinArmstrong&MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
글로벌 금융이 임계점에 가까워지며 통화 평가절하가 진행 중이라는 주장. 금은 현재 약 4,400달러에서 장기적으로 4만~40만 달러까지 오를 수 있으며 방향은 상승. 달러 무기화(SWIFT 제재)로 국가 간 결제 블록화가 진행돼 미국 국채 신뢰가 훼손될 수 있고, 전쟁 시 디폴트 가능성 언급. AI 데이터센터 투자 붐과 관세가 인플레이션을 자극하고, 미 10년물 금리가 6%까지 오를 수 있으며 주택담보대출 금리 7% 이상으로 부담이 커진다고 주장. 이후 AI로 인한 과잉 공급과 디플레이션 충격 뒤 중앙은행의 대규모 화폐 발행으로 장기 물가 상승이 가속된다는 전망. 실물자산(부동산, 희귀 수집품)이 피난처라고 강조.
다듬은 글
China's move to gold is neutral. For a central bank, it is not beneficial to hold gold because it costs money to store it and it does not generate interest. Then you have a lot of the gold fanatics complaining because they lease the gold. Oh, that 's suppressing the price, you know. But if they don't rent it, then they can't have it.
I imagine people will look back at gold at the present time, close to 4,400, and say, "We should have bought some gold back then, because now it's worth 40,000 or 400,000, who knows?" I think the direction is upwards. Global financial markets are approaching a critical tipping point as rampant sovereign debt expansion and monetary debasement continually erode purchasing power.
Tangible assets are constantly regaining prominence while traditional fiduciary structures face serious headwinds in international markets. Renowned economic forecaster Martin Armstrong and veteran global investor Marc Faber emphasize that conventional policy measures are quietly accelerating a broader monetary crisis.
Faber predicts that, although gold is currently trading around $4,400, investors will eventually look back in awe as prices climb toward $40,000 or even $400,000, confirming that the ultimate trajectory for precious metals is decidedly bullish. This relentless increase is driven by central banks suppressing interest rates below the real increase in the cost of living, along with inflationary import tariffs and an aggressive surge in capital spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The growing industrial demand for raw materials such as copper in an economy awash with abundant liquidity will maintain pressure on prices in the long term. Holding a diversified physical gold portfolio remains one of the safest strategies to protect personal wealth from systematic currency devaluation.
with this discussion, please press f you go back to 2014, when Russia entered Crimea, Obama went to Swift and wanted Russia removed from the Swift system. They refused. Mhm. So, they replaced Swift's boss . Yeah. And it's just one of those toy dogs that bob their heads in the back window of a car, you know?
That was the first problem. Then, once that happened, you have Blinken and everyone else, who had the audacity to even threaten China. Yes. If they help Russia, we will eliminate them . These people are...Look, I know some of them. I have had dinner with some of these people. Me too. They have no understanding of the global economy.
Zero, in my opinion . They only see what's right in front of their noses. We have to win. We have to defeat Russia. When they took the dollar and turned it into a weapon, what they 're saying is that they see it in slow motion. China created its system because they felt threatened. So they have divided the world economy.
Now, these people are so stupid that they continue to use the same threat. If they don't do this, we'll kick them out of Swift. Well, in the end, what happens is that you're the only one left in Swift. That's how it is. And as I said, I've seen it firsthand everywhere . I knew Bill Kristol. He spoke at one of our conferences.
I used to think they were economically conservative, but then you realize that they are not and they have no concept of long-term viability. And as you say, you keep threatening everyone, kicking them out of Swift, and you're the only one left. Yes. Yes. Then you really do destroy the dollar. One thing is that it is not a bearish trend of the dollar*per*.
What's happening is geopolitical. Yes. Yes. If you go to war, as they keep threatening, the US isn't going to pay the interest on the bonds that China holds. I mean, just look at history, they always default. So I don't think it has anything to do with them thinking the dollar is going to fall. OK. Governments routinely default on their debts during times of war.
You can read Herbert Hoover's memoirs from 1931. That is to say, all of Europe defaulted. Great Britain defaulted on its debt. Even Canada did it. So that's more of a risk. Mhm. I believe that, without a war, the dollar won't fall because it's the economy you still have to sell to. Yes. So it has to be something more than that .
And China's move towards gold is neutral. OK. It is not beneficial for a central bank to hold gold because it costs money to store it and it does not generate interest. Mhm. Then you have a lot of the gold fanatics complaining because then they were leasing the gold. Oh, that's suppressing the price, you know.
But if they don't rent it out, then they can't maintain it. So you have to understand it from their point of view. Mhm. Uh, that's why Great Britain sold all the gold and, you know, Mhm. uh, at the low price back then . Everyone made a big joke about it , but they were trying, you know, to get rid of him to make some money .
Yes. That's the whole problem. Yes, it is . Um, you know, gold costs money to store and doesn't pay interest. Look, I think some people also call it the bubble of everything. Mhm. Um, if you look even at Germany in the autumn of the Weimar Republic, the currency that replaced it in 1925 was the real estate-backed Reichsmark .
It is tangible assets that make that transition. So, you have a house that's worth, you know, $100,000. Alright. The dollar falls, they come out with a new currency, eagles or whatever. Oh, now your house will simply be renamed after whatever the Eagles are. Correct. Um, it doesn't drop to zero. Mhm.
Um, so everything is a tangible asset. So, you see things like rare cars, uh, coins, stamps, everything is going up. Um, it's not just one thing. Uh, real estate, I mean, I live in Florida. I still receive at least two or three calls per week. Do you want to sell your house? No. You know, where am I going to go?
Chicago? That's rubbish. Um, yes. Yes. So I mean, and I've spoken to real estate agents around here and, uh-huh . They say that for houses that cost between one and five million, people simply arrive and pay in cash. Mhm. Um, that's basically people taking money out of the system. Yes. Um, yes. So that's why it tends to be more of a bubble of everything, I think.
It is not just a particular commodity. Yes. Uh, but it's, it's in all areas. And um, I mean, that's how you survive one of these currency changes. Mhm. Um, which will eventually happen. I mean, it's um, um, if people don't understand the political system. And um, I've received a lot of questions, "Oh, don't you think we can go back to the gold standard ?" No.
Uh, mainly because I guess I could run for Congress. I'll tell you anything you want to hear. You know, I'll save the whales. It won't rain on Sundays. Whatever you want me to say. Then you get there, yes. There's a meeting on the first day. Yes. Congratulations. This is how it works. While it lasts, vote for me, I'll give you a free car and a lollipop.
Um, then you're going to have deficits. Mhm. Um, so socialism is at the core of what's sinking the West. Um, China and Russia already went through that and they did it. OK. Um, it's our turn. Uh, you have to be fiscally responsible. You can't just bribe everyone and say vote for me and I'll give you this.
Uh, and that's why I just see that the political system itself will have to change before we get all that monetary reform. The aggressive weaponization of international payment channels is actively dividing the global financial architecture into competing economic spheres. Repeatedly threatening sovereign nations with expulsion from the Swift network forces trading powers to build autonomous clearing systems, ultimately leaving Western authorities completely isolated within their own framework and destroying the dollar's international standing.
Historical precedents show that geopolitical conflicts commonly lead to sovereign debt defaults. The predictions highlight that, if military confrontations intensify, the United States will inevitably stop interest payments and default on sovereign bonds held by rivals such as China. This structural change does not stem from simple market cycles, but from an irreversible collapse in geopolitical confidence and credit viability.
Sovereign powers will continue to move away from vulnerable foreign debt claims in favor of secure independence. Now, let's get back to the interview. Correct. In my opinion, regarding the price of precious metals and everything else, the government will create more and more inflation. They won't admit it, but whatever measures they take now, they essentially want to keep interest rates low.
By trying to keep interest rates low, what happens is that inflation will accelerate. Because interest rates are lagging behind the cost of living increases, inflation is accelerating. And inflation is also accelerating for two other reasons. First, tariffs are inflationary. There is no doubt about it: if you impose tariffs on goods entering the country, the tendency will be for prices to rise more than they would have otherwise.
And second, as you know, we have a boom in capital spending driven by the AI revolution, artificial intelligence, with the building of data centers, and it has a tremendous multiplier effect. Correct. And it has a positive impact on demand. And so, the demand for workers increases and the demand for raw materials increases, right?
Demand for copper is rising, demand for both precious metals, but especially for copper, and that drives up prices in an environment where money is, uh, abundantly available. TRUE. You understand? If you wanted to curb inflation or reduce the rate of price increases, you would have to implement strict monetary policies right now , but that is not the case.
Otherwise, if money were scarce, the stock market would not be reaching new highs. It would be 20% below the highs. TRUE. Yes, that makes perfect sense . So I think that, actually, the surprise, the negative surprise, will be relatively high inflation rates , and then there will be a crash. I mean , a colossal collapse because we're spending too much money on data centers.
Soon there will be many data centers and semiconductors in the world, just as there is a surplus of cars. Because the Chinese can already produce cars entirely with robots. I mean, you don't need humans anymore. Therefore, there is no factor holding back production, there will be a surplus of everything and prices will fall.
What do central banks do when prices fall? They print even more money. Mhm. And I think the trend we had, let's say, I don't know when you were born or when your viewers were born, but assuming they were born in the 60s, 70s or 80s, everyone can see that prices in the long run go up: in real estate, services, food in restaurants, food in supermarkets, and so on.
And these price increases, in my opinion, will really increase and accelerate in the long term. There may be times when, as I said, a crash occurs and prices fall for a while, and then central banks will step in and print money like crazy. TRUE. Like crazy. Yes. No, it makes perfect sense . You know...
And I... I've never expressed a target price for gold, but I could imagine that people will remember gold at the current moment. It's around 2,400 and they'll say, "We should have bought some gold back then, because now it's worth 40,000 or 400,000. Who knows?" Yes. I believe the trend is upward, but I don't deny that other things might be better investments.
You understand? Mhm. As investors, we have to wait and think about what the best investment is and what the safest one is. And my point of view would be that gold is relatively safe, more so than cryptocurrencies, but it has the disadvantage that if I live in northern Thailand , Mjm. It's difficult for me to travel to the US with 10-kilo gold bars in my pocket.
Do you understand what...? Alright . The customs officer has never seen a piece of gold. He'll think it's a nuclear weapon or something and arrest me, and then the customs officials will say I'm a drug dealer or something. So there are disadvantages, but if you have your gold in diversified locations, some in the US or Canada, some in Europe, some in Australia, some in China and some in Russia.
Maybe you're okay. The market shows no concern or exhibits total complacency regarding the increase in interest rates. Now , Mjm. As you know, interest rates in some countries were at or below zero in 2020. And in the US, the 10-year Treasury bond was at 0.57% at its lowest point. OK. And now the 10-year bond is around 4.7 %.
I believe that the increase in interest rates will cause more damage than has been revealed so far. And that long-term rates will continue to rise. I do n't think I'd be surprised to see the 10-year Treasury yield, say, at 6%. Mjm. And many corporate bonds yield between 5.5% and 6%, and mortgage rates are above 7%.
You understand, if you buy a house and it costs a million dollars and your interest payments are 7%. $70,000 a year. This is already a considerable interest payment. Oh, yes. People have to pool their money to buy the house. Therefore, affordability has decreased. There are many people who would like to own a home, but cannot afford it.
Mjm. And this is a problem that is not going away. Financial markets are currently exhibiting widespread complacency regarding the serious economic consequences of persistently high borrowing costs. Projections indicate that the 10-year Treasury yield is poised to rise toward 6%, which will trap mortgage rates well above 7% and push corporate yields to punitive levels.
Large mortgage payments are already excluding ordinary buyers from homeownership and causing far deeper credit damage than investors realize. Simultaneously, the massive investment in artificial intelligence data centers and semiconductors will inevitably culminate in a colossal collapse. Highly automated robotics will soon produce an overwhelming surplus of goods without limitations on human labor, causing temporary deflationary drops in prices.
When asset valuations plummet, central banks will panic and print money uncontrollably, reigniting a permanent and even sharper wave of price increases in real estate, food, and everyday services. Because political systems depend on deficit spending and promises of benefits, monetary reform cannot occur without political restructuring.
When unbacked paper money finally experiences a structural failure and is replaced. Real estate, rare collectibles, and solid tangible assets represent the only proven foundation for surviving the transi.
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