저자: MartinArmstrong&MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
금 가격 약세는 UAE 은행 위기에 따른 유동성 압박과 러시아의 제재 회피용 매도에 기인한 일시적 현상이라는 주장. Faber는 금·광산주 강세장이 지속되며 금이 4,000~3,000달러까지 조정 가능하나 장기적으로 2만~3만 달러도 가능하다고 봄. 광산주는 과도하게 비싸지 않다는 견해. 유럽의 자본통제·화폐 폐지 위험, 기관의 자산 배분 등을 논의.
다듬은 글
Our computer was right. He predicted that gold would fall for a couple of months. People were thinking, " How can he do that in the middle of a war?" As I said, the banking system collapsed in the UAE. People needed to sell gold because they couldn't withdraw anything from the bank. Russia began selling gold to evade sanctions.
I only see this as a temporary liquidity problem, not a long-term change. I do n't think mining companies are terribly expensive. I think, I think they could lower the price. I don't think the gold bull market is over. I think it will continue. Now, you know, we've gone over $5,000 an ounce. Can it go down to 4,000 or 3,000?
Yes, but it can also go up to 20,000 or 30,000. The recent fall in gold may seem alarming, but the forces behind it suggest a broader liquidity story rather than a simple end to the precious metals cycle . Martin Armstrong argues that gold's weakness stems from temporary liquidity pressure, noting that banking system problems in the UAE forced some investors to sell gold when access to bank funds became difficult.
It also notes that Russia is selling gold to circumvent sanctions, which adds another source of short-term supply pressure. Mark Faber remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold and mining stocks. He argues that mining companies are not excessively expensive and believes that the gold bull market is not over, although significant corrections are still possible.
After gold surpassed $5,000 an ounce, Faber sees room for prices to fall towards $4,000 or even $3,000 without breaking the overall upward trend. At the same time, his long-term outlook leaves open the possibility that gold could eventually reach $20,000 to $30,000 per ounce. Liquidity stress, forced selling, geopolitical pressures, and long-term monetary uncertainty could keep gold and mining stocks volatile.
mean, if you went to a gold standard, the gold would run out, very quickly. So, you have to change the political system. But that won't happen anytime soon. Exactly. And that's the real problem in the room. I think it's more of a long-term thing. Look, our computer was right. He predicted that gold would fall for a couple of months.
People were thinking, "How can he do that in the middle of a war?" Well, as I said, the banking system collapsed in the United Arab Emirates. People needed to sell gold because they could n't withdraw anything from the bank. Russia has begun selling gold to circumvent sanctions. So, I only see this as a temporary liquidity problem , not a long-term change.
For it to be long-term, you'd have to open your arms and accept the government, and I just don't see that happening. And I 've said for a long time, look, the stock market will go up with gold. OK? Mainly because you have sovereign wealth funds. We have, you know, only two clients with more than a billion dollars in their portfolios.
You can't put that kind of money into gold alone. They need to earn interest, and so on. So they tend to buy more shares. I've managed to get them out of, you know, real estate and things of that nature that aren't liquid. In addition, one had an S&P audit and they said, "Oh, they're selling more government debt." "They are taking on more risk because they were moving towards the corporate side." And they said, "No.
Look, we used Armstrong Economics and verified what he said." "It is the governments that are failing to comply." "Well, we'll recover something if General Motors goes under ." "You know, it goes bankrupt and you get something back." "With the government, you get zero." And S&P left them alone. They left through the door and their grades weren't lowered.
But they were moving towards corporate debt. Yes, but I think the risk of capital controls from Europe is also extensive. And if we look at what Europe has done historically, they even confiscated silver, not just gold. And during World War II, Europeans could not buy gold. So what they did was buy the mining companies.
Um, that happened in the United States in the 1930s. Correct. So, a change in that direction is coming, okay? The biggest problem with gold for institutions, not for individuals, is that it doesn't pay a return. That's why many people rent it out and do things like that to earn some money from it. It costs money to store it, but it provides no return .
While mining companies at least provide some kind of return . When you look at Europe behind the curtain, you see what Ursula did. She interfered in the Hungarian elections , as she has done in every election, period, from Italy to Romania, and so on. Honestly, you'd be better off shaking hands with the Italian mafia.
They have more ethics. And as soon as he got rid of Orbán in Hungary, look what he's proposing . We have to put an end to any country blocking us. Now, to initially sell the euro, the criticism was that it could be dominated by Germany or whatever again. So the structure was that any vote would require unanimity among all members to prevent one from dictating to another.
That 's exactly what she wants to eliminate now. Every step he takes is towards tyranny. And this is indicative of the problem our computer is showing with Europe. The EU will not survive. The more they do this, the more the tensions of separation will appear . And they have interfered in the Scottish, Italian, Romanian, and now Hungarian elections.
They even threatened to interfere in the German elections to prevent the AfD from winning. They are a ruthless criminal organization. Well, we've been warning our customers about that. That's why they saw a lot of gold moving from London and Switzerland to the United States and Singapore. As I warned them, and they could see this coming, when they get into trouble, they will impose capital controls.
They've always done it, and as a result, you have gold there in London and you can't get it out. Very good. Part of the reason the dollar is also the reserve currency is that Americans have never faced this, but Europe routinely cancels its currency. Even Switzerland . Even if you have an old British banknote from 30 years ago, it's not valid.
You have to take it to the central bank and exchange it for a new one. This is what they do because they are very Marxist. You have a stash of 100,000 euros in a safety deposit box, they cancel the currency and force you to take it out. You say, "Okay, fine ." "Give me the new one." Oh, where did you get this?
Did you pay your taxes? This is what they do. They even cancel the currency. France had 10 franc coins, they cancelled them. I mean, the United States has never done that. So Americans don't realize it , but that's why about 70% of our paper dollars circulate outside the United States. Gold, government debt, capital controls, and the future of global markets are colliding in ways that investors cannot afford to ignore.
In this conversation, Martin Armstrong and Marc Faber examine why gold's recent weakness could be temporary, rather than a long- term reversal, how sovereign wealth funds position themselves in equities and corporate debt, and why liquidity matters when financial stress arises . They also discuss the growing risks surrounding public debt, the political and financial structure of Europe, potential capital controls, and why institutions often prefer gold miners over physical gold, given that miners can generate returns.
The discussion also explores the role of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency , the movement of gold between major financial centers, and how governments have historically responded during periods of monetary pressure. As uncertainty increases in currencies , debt markets and geopolitics, these prospects raise important questions for investors.
Let's get into the interview. I look at myself, of course. I am someone who has advocated for owning precious metals for the past 40 years. And I buy a little each month. And I also tell people that they should own precious metals because, if they don't, they rely on central banks. And look at the people who occupy these central banks.
Would you trust them? Definitely not. But, but, um...I also own dollars because I have a financial business and I buy and sell securities, and occasionally I have liquidity due to my opinions and sometimes because I sold a position we held, etc. However, most of it is still in US dollars today . I have some portfolios that I value in euros and others that I value in Swiss francs.
And valuations will fluctuate greatly depending on the assets. And it fluctuates frequently in unexpected ways. As I said, I have a very large exposure to precious metals. But the time may come when I say I will put everything in precious metals. I haven't done it yet. But I have friends who are true gold enthusiasts.
They have 80% of their assets in gold and precious metals. Oh. Yes, 80% do not own real estate, they do not own stocks. They own gold shares, but they're not interested in a company in Asia or anything like that. They are interested in assets related to gold, silver, and platinum. Mhm. You said something like that once, but what I meant was : if you go...where do you live?
Canada. Canada, that's fine. Let's say you're going to a cocktail party for wealthy people. And you ask them, "Oh, you've noticed that the price of gold and silver has gone up. Do you have any?" And then they will say, "Yes, we do have it." And the wife will say, "Yes, I have an earring from my grandmother." And so on.
But people, and Canada is one of the best countries in gold possession, because the mining sector is very large on the stock exchange. But the typical Canadian owns no more than, say, 3 or 4% in gold. We can also measure how fund managers allocate money to technology stocks, coal, and minerals. Mhm.
and to gold, silver, platinum, the health sector, and so on. Exposure to gold, to gold ETFs as a percentage of all ETFs, is minimal. Exposure to energy is minimal. Before the energy market recently took off, I wrote a report. I have the chart. I published the chart in February about the record short position in oil futures.
Those are hedge funds. People give their money to the hedge fund community. They manage it, and they have a record short position in oil. The physical aspect, but I moved some money to mining companies. OK. But I also sold some mining companies again. Mhm. Uh, but I didn't sell enough. In other words, it should have sold more.
It's always the same story. You know, you buy too much of what doesn't go up in value. Yes. And you're not selling enough of the price that's dropping. I don't think mining companies are terribly expensive. I think they'll go down in price. I don't think the gold bull market is over. I think it will continue.
Now, you know , we've gone over $5,000 an ounce . Can it fall to 4,000 or 3,000? Yes. But it can also go up to 20,000; I believe Kevin Warsh is not the money printer. I think he's basically a reasonable man. And I have listened to some of his speeches. He has, uh , a deep knowledge of economics . Unlike Bernanke and Yellen, she had no idea about...she has no idea about anything.
But, uh, and Powell is, uh, better; I mean, I've been critical of the Central Bank for the last 40 years, although I've always said that Greenspan is a very intelligent man intellectually. He has his flaws, but, hey, intellectually, he's brilliant. He was a terrible prognosticator. And, uh, a relatively poor economist as an economist in his profession.
He no longer had any clients when he closed his firm and became chairman of the Fed. But he was a good fit as Fed chairman because he was adaptable... You have to understand, Wall Street is very powerful. Money is very powerful in the United States. Do you think Wall Street likes it when asset prices fall?
No. Their commissions come from the size of the assets, not their quality. Of the size. And they will always wish that the Fed would print money. You'll never find a Wall Street economist who will actually tell the public that the Fed is making a huge mistake and that it should tighten monetary policy and let asset prices fall by 30% because then they would be affordable.
Why isn't the real estate market doing so well in terms of sales volume? Because houses are too expensive. Nobody can afford them, except for the 1%. The next phase of the market may be less defined by a single headline and more by where global capital moves as confidence, debt pressures, currencies, and monetary policy continue to shift.
As those forces evolve, precious metals remain an important part, but diversification and liquidity may still be relevant when markets move unexpectedly. Precious metals remain important, but diversification and liquidity can matter when markets move unexpectedly. Institutional exposure to gold, gold ETFs, energy, mining stocks, and general resource assets remains relatively small compared to traditional market sectors.
Even a modest change in capital allocation could generate significant movements in gold, silver, mining, commodities and related assets; Interest rates, government debt, inflation, Wall Street's position, affordability pressures, currency movements, and shifting investor confidence can produce very different results across all asset classes.
As a result, flexibility, risk management, and an understanding of capital flows are becoming increasingly important as investors prepare for what may come. The coming market environment could reward those who pay attention to where the money is going rather than simply following the latest headline. In other words, follow the flow of capital, not the nois.
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