저자: AlasdairMacleod,JimRogers-소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
법정화폐와 신용의 가치가 떨어지고 있어 신용 리스크가 없는 실물 금·은으로 옮겨가야 한다는 주장. 일본 국가부채가 GDP 240%로 금리 인상이 어려워 일본은행이 금리를 억제할 수밖에 없고, 엔화 약세와 캐리트레이드 붕괴가 올 것으로 봄. 미국도 역대 최대 국가부채로 달러 신뢰가 떨어져 금 가격이 명목상 크게 오를 것이라 주장. 금리 상승이 금 보유에 불리하다는 통념은 틀렸다고 함.
다듬은 글
This relationship changes. And that's basically what fueled the gold rush in the 1970s. And it seems to me that we're very, very close to that relationship actually changing. Well, right now, when you see bond yields falling slightly like they are today, then gold surges. But gold retains its purchasing power.
You don't buy gold because the price will go up. No, you buy gold to get out of debt once and for all , since credit is falling. That's the main issue. But I can say that security lies in completely abandoning credit and investing in real money without counterparty risk, which is gold. Possibly silver plays a secondary role.
Gold and silver are denominated in dollars, our currency, paper money. And if there is much more paper money, whether dollars or anything else, people will protect themselves with gold and silver . They've always done this and they always will. Global financial markets are on the verge of a massive structural shift , moving away from fragile credit mechanisms.
Fiat currencies continue to lose real purchasing power as debt obligations expand rapidly around the world. Alasdair Macleod, an experienced financial analyst, and Jim Rogers, a renowned global investor, emphasize that the historical foundation underpinning the monetary system is rapidly deteriorating.
Sovereign credit carries serious counterparty risks, making physical gold the ultimate safe haven against systemic decline. Investors acquire physical metal not to seek speculative nominal returns, but to escape depreciating credit instruments that lack a tangible anchor. Although traditional macroeconomic analysis suggests that rising bond yields penalize non-yielding assets, the real danger lies entirely in fiat paper.
Gold has maintained consistent purchasing power throughout the centuries, proving that credit simply loses its value without an anchor in precious metal. In the coming months, gold priced in falling currencies is expected to rise considerably as market relations shift, mirroring the historic commodity highs of the 1970s.
Securing real money is the only practical way to avoid being stuck with devalued paper assets. Now, we present clips from their n the context of the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy, we can see that a quarter of a percent drop in September is far from the end of the story. They will have to raise interest rates considerably.
Now, if we go back to when this happened in the 1970s, when OPEC raised its benchmark price in two stages, first at the end of '73 and then in January '74, the inflation rate in Japan, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 20%, peaked at over 25%? That was the consumer inflation rate. Wholesale prices have risen by about 30%.
Bond yields rose to around 8%, and the Bank of Japan intervened to prevent them from rising further. We are very far from that, and the big difference is that, instead of having a debt-to-GDP ratio of just 20%, today the debt-to-GDP ratio is 240%. Clearly, Japan cannot afford an increase in interest rates .
The problem now is how do they stop this? How do they get out of this? If they raise rates, if the Bank of Japan raises rates to deal with the inflation problem, then they will basically destroy the entire economy. Therefore, what they will do instead, and they really have no choice, is try to hold rates down and prevent them from rising to 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11% or whatever, in order to control the inflation rate.
But you can see that the markets are starting to get scared by the arithmetic of this situation. And this will impact the yen, which has already jumped more than 5% in two rounds. The first one following Besson's initial intervention , which was just over a week ago. So today the yen has, I mean , it's an upside- down relationship.
It fell 2% against the dollar, which basically means it went up in terms of its value relative to the dollar. So, I think this is something that looks like it's going to continue. And that's going to mess up the carry trade. If you are a European trader, then what you would do is sell dollars and buy euros.
And on the margin you put some of that in gold, which, as we all know, is real money. So, um, I think this will increasingly boost relationships in the markets, um, in the coming weeks. Hmm, and we're starting to see that, I think, the change in the relationship between the dollar and gold, insofar as, until very recently, if you had, um, an increase in the price of oil, that was seen as negative for gold.
Don't ask me why. I mean, this, this is... This is how macro experts think. And, well, the other thing is that if you see a rise in interest rates, that's bad for gold because, you know, you 're being penalized in terms of interest returns if you hold gold, which yields, well, at least a rate of what ?
Half a percent, compared to US Treasury bonds at 4%, or something around 4%. And if that goes up, you know, the penalty for holding gold will be even greater. But, you see, when you have a situation where the risk, or the apparent risk, changes, so to speak, from currency to gold, that relationship changes.
And that's basically what fueled the gold rush in the 1970s. And it seems to me that we're very, very close to that relationship actually changing. Right now , when you see bond yields falling slightly, like today, gold surges, which I suppose is a good thing. But the problem is that when bond yields go up, everyone thinks, "Oh, it's a penalty to hold gold." No, it isn't.
Because the way to analyze this is: where is the risk here? The risk lies in fiat currencies. You need to move away from fiat currencies and into gold or commodities, which is what gold effectively represents. So, that's the situation at the moment, and yes, it's changing, I think, and that means that gold priced in falling fiat currencies will likely rise considerably in the coming months.
Well, I think... well, I hope it's becoming increasingly clear to listeners that the idea that you should get out of credit really makes a lot of sense, because where is the risk? The risk lies in the credit. I mean, gold and silver have been money for the last 2,500 years, basically. It is the final settlement of credit, and they deny us the ability to settle credit in gold and silver.
This is simply no longer allowed. And that basically means the credit loses its value. He doesn't have an anchor, so to speak, in terms of gold. And here's something interesting. I tried to argue that the purchasing power of gold is relatively constant over long periods of time. Well, in the mid- 18th century, we're talking about 1740, 1750, stockbrokers in London basically started trading in coffee houses in the City and on Change Alley, which stands for Exchange Alley.
And, um, Jonathan's was, um, the coffee shop that actually eventually became the London Stock Exchange . And when I was, um, a member of the London Stock Exchange, they opened a coffee shop there that they called Jonathan's. I mean, you, not the story. The point I'm trying to make is that you could go in there, have a cup of coffee for 1 penny, old 1 penny, of which there were 240 in the pound.
And that allowed you to hear the conversations. It could be, you know, you could buy or sell stocks or, you know, bonds or whatever. Hmm, and it was very, very important. And it was from this point that everything developed. All these types of modern markets have developed. Hmm , then, 1 penny. Okay, 1 penny.
Now, um, back then, or shortly after, so it didn't make a difference, a pound was basically exchangeable for a gold sovereign. Hmm, I mean, originally it was Guinea, but basically it was a sovereign state. Now, if you calculate the value of a sovereign today, which is around 820 pounds each, originally exchangeable for 1 pound, your 1 penny, um, 280 years ago, in today's currency is about 4 pounds, which is roughly the cost of a cup of Starbucks coffee today.
I mean, it's just these random facts, um. This just goes to show that, uh, gold retains its purchasing power. You don't buy gold because the price will go up. No, you buy gold to get out of debt once and for all, because credit is falling. That's the key, and everyone should understand that, although, um, the US Treasury turns its back on gold and says no, gold is just a pet gem or something, it 's no longer relevant in this modern age, blah blah blah.
Yes, it is relevant, and, um, it always has been and always will be relevant. And, uh, you know, if you want to believe Mr. Bessant, um, about how, uh, you know, how wonderful US Treasury bonds are, then good luck to you. But I can tell you that the real security lies in moving away from credit altogether and investing in real money without counterparty risk, which is gold, possibly silver in a subsidiary role.
The Bank of Japan is trapped in an unsustainable mathematical trap with national debt exceeding 240% of gross domestic product. Although severe inflation necessitates high interest rates , an aggressive tightening would simply destroy the entire Japanese economy. Central bankers are expected to artificially suppress benchmark bond yields , rather than allowing them to soar into double digits.
However, international financial markets are becoming deeply alarmed by this impossible arithmetic. This pressure is expected to push the yen against the dollar, decisively destroying the global "carry trade". To navigate this collapse, European institutional traders will sell dollars, buy euros, and shift marginal reserves into gold as the ultimate settlement of value .
Escaping fiduciary debt in favor of solid money will drive market behavior in the coming weeks. Now, let's get back to the interview. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency now, but I mean, the US has a gigantic debt. The debt is getting bigger and bigger. Well, yes, it's a good time to be a senior American .
It's not a good time to be a young American, uh, because young Americans are going to have big problems because of the debt situation. Just as young Britons had major problems 100 years ago when the currency came under pressure. I promise you that this will certainly happen during your life and it will be a big problem.
For anyone, well, not just anyone, for the world, because when the world's reserve currency has problems, everyone has problems. This happened with the pound sterling 50 years ago, 80, 100 years ago, when the pound was the world's reserve currency . This causes problems for everyone, because some people have it and have to do something about it.
This will happen with the US dollar. I repeat, the US is the biggest creditor and the biggest debtor in the history of the world, and yet it gets worse every day, and there's nothing they'll do about it. It will get worse and that will cause problems for everyone. Inflation will rise, the value of the dollar will fall.
This is something quite simple. It happened for hundreds of years. That's all they know how to do. They know how to print money. Yes, they don't know anything anymore, and that's what they'll do. I mean, gold and silver are denominated in dollars or currency, paper money, and if there's a lot more paper money, whether it's dollars or anything else, people will protect themselves with gold and silver.
They always have and they always will. But each person has to make their own decisions for themselves. Yes, I will continue buying gold and silver because I know that they, Washington, and other places, will continue printing money. And I do n't know any other way to protect myself. I mean, let's put it this way, the best way to protect yourself is with gold and silver.
So I'm going to buy more, because I know they're going to print more. They will say they won't go. They will tell many lies, but all they know how to do is print money, and they will do it. But they will see, if they don't already know, that the value of paper money continues to fall, and the way to protect yourself—yes, herbs will help you, oil will help you, but gold and silver are more liquid and more useful, and have been for hundreds of years.
Everyone will lose confidence in the US dollar more and more. The US is the most indebted nation in the history of the world. I'm not the only person who knows this. We all know that the US continues to print more and more paper money, and more and more people are looking for ways to protect themselves.
If you and I were talking in 1926, we would be discussing the pound sterling and ways to protect ourselves. Now, this has transferred to the dollar . There will always be a reason for people to protect themselves against currency devaluation. If you don't have gold and silver, get some and put it in that cupboard behind you.
I care about the price because if it goes down, I'll buy more. I have n't... I've never sold gold and silver, but if they fall, I hope I'm smart enough to know, recognize it, and buy more. Gold and silver will always protect us if and when things fall apart. I don't like it, but I know the facts. And you...do you see that closet?
Put some gold and silver in there after we turn it off. And as governments continue to devalue currencies and print money, yes, choose...choose the currency. It may have an absurd price, which we consider absurd prices. But it is a fact that governments will print more money and reduce the value of paper currency.
This will cause the value of money to fall. This means that the prices of gold and silver will rise. But what's really happening is that printing money makes the value of money fall, and politicians will continue to do this. Maybe in some countries they'll stop for a while, but in the end, I mean, in Washington, that's all they know how to do: print money.
And they will do more, and that will cause the price of gold and silver to rise in terms of US dollars and other currencies. The problem is that, even if you teach them, they might say, "Okay, we 'll stop." But then, when things get bad, they'll start printing again. That's all they know. They...those people aren't very intelligent.
That's why they work for the government. That 's the price of their currency falling. Yes, of course. Although there are probably other countries with a stronger currency , the value will be different in that stronger currency. I mean, the US has the least solid currency right now. Eventually, someone else will have it.
The United States has accumulated the largest sovereign debt in human history, setting the stage for an inevitable currency crisis. Younger generations of Americans are expected to face enormous financial hardship in their lives, mirroring the turmoil young Britons experienced when the pound sterling lost its dominance as a reserve currency a century ago.
When the world's primary reserve currency falters, all nations feel the systemic shockwaves. Political authorities in Washington know only one operational reflex: printing vast sums of unbacked money . Despite endless official assurances, domestic inflation is expected to rise relentlessly as the purchasing power of paper money steadily erodes.
Essential commodities like oil and wheat offer tangible value, but gold and silver possess superior liquidity and centuries of proven resilience. As governments continue their aggressive devaluation, physical precious metals are expected to trade at what many consider absurd nominal prices in paper dollars.
Global confidence will inevitably shift away from sovereign debtors toward solid, tangible money. Acquiring physical gold and silver to keep safely at home remains the most reliable strategy for preserving personal purchasing power before the next crisis arrives. .
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