저자: MarcFaber·LukeGromen—소속은제목기준미상확인필요 · 외국인
요약 보기
서구 정부 부채 과잉으로 체계적 붕괴가 불가피하며, 정부가 금 보유를 불법화하거나 헐값에 강제 매입 후 재평가(4,500→45만~100만 달러/온스)해 부채를 상환할 수 있다고 주장. 재평가 시 5~10조 달러 유동성 창출, 주식 급등·비트코인 급등 및 이후 인플레이션, 채권 보유자 실질 손실 예상. 중국 희토류·국방 생산 의존과 미사일 재고 고갈 등 지정학적 한계도 언급. 자산별 구체적 가격 방향 예측은 대부분 장기 시나리오이며 1~3개월 단기 콜은 명시적으로 없음.
다듬은 글
In the case of gold, one problem I foresee is that governments might outlaw gold holdings, forcing you to hand them over. They will pay you a certain amount. Maybe today they might say, "Okay, let's buy all the gold at 4,400 or 4,500." And they can borrow, they can print that money to buy it from you.
Do you understand? It's not that they suffer from it. They can do it . And then they can revalue the gold to 45,000, 100,000 or a million. There are many things governments can do. The problem is we have $27 trillion , you know, the Treasury market is $25 trillion in debt, $ 37 trillion in total. I believe the Treasury market is $27 trillion in size.
So, it's only 4% of the entire Treasury market. It 's not big enough. Now, if gold cost $20,000 an ounce, it would be worth about $5 trillion. If gold cost $40,000 an ounce, you know , you'd get to about $10 trillion. Soaring sovereign debt and widening budget deficits are pushing Western financial systems to a critical threshold.
Conventional monetary instruments are losing their effectiveness, leaving policymakers with ever- shrinking alternatives as welfare obligations continue to outstrip government revenues. Marc Faber, a veteran global investment manager, and Luke Gromen, a macroeconomic research specialist , warn that real structural discipline remains politically elusive.
They predict that government authorities will unleash aggressive money printing, even criminalizing private gold ownership and requiring citizens to surrender the metal at an arbitrary price, such as $4,400 an ounce. After this forced acquisition, officials are expected to artificially revalue sovereign reserves to $ 45,000, $100,000, or even $1 million an ounce to instantly extinguish government liabilities .
They also envision punitive property taxes that will systematically expropriate private homes, forcing owners to move into state-owned housing. From this perspective, the debt supercycle will not be resolved through democratic elections, but through a sudden systemic crisis that will cause the unpayable paper promises to collapse .
Now we present clips from their interview. Before continuing to discuss s and enjoy the video. I think if I look at Western governments, and I'm not just referring to the US, the others are in a similar situation. The solution, the long-term solution to the problems we are now facing in terms of economic growth and stagnant living standards in the West, could be a significant reduction in government.
The government represents 50% of the economy. We could get it down to 25%. But the voters, the electorate, wouldn't appreciate it because they look at the subsidies they receive and they don't want to pay more taxes, but they want to get more benefits. So how do you go to pensioners and tell them, " From now on, your pension will be 30% less than before"?
How do you get elected with a vision like that? And so, I believe the only way to fix the system is not through voluntary government action, but through a crisis that essentially collapses the system and the debts within it. And that transition is like a major operation that happens in a body that's been in an accident or something.
Yes, I would say we need an accident to clean up the system. Otherwise, it won't clean up and will get worse, because the government's response to any problem is not to spend less, but to spend more and gain more influence over the system. And in the end, you have a planned economy like under communism, where maybe even the properties you own are expropriated, that is, they are taken away from you.
It can happen in many ways. You can say about houses, you can raise taxes on houses to such a point that no one can afford to live in a house. You understand? Then you have to go to a government-owned apartment that is subsidized by the government, and this will reduce your standard of living because these buildings are usually not very well maintained.
However, we could move away from the market economy, from the capitalist system towards a more socialist, communist or fascist system. Trump , if you really look at his actions and his business behavior, is essentially a perfect example of a fascist. Yes. You know, like Mussolini. It wants to influence businesses and the government decides, because the government owns 50% of the economy.
They have enormous power over how tax revenue is allocated to this or that company, or to this person who gives you contributions or that person. I would say that the government's first reaction will be to print more money. That's why I think the stock market is rising and gold is relatively strong, because money printing will be favorable for these assets.
But in the case of gold, one problem I foresee is that governments might go so far as to say that gold holdings are illegal. That you have to hand over your gold. They'll pay you some money. Let's say today they might say, "Okay, let's buy all the gold at 4,400 or 4,500." And they can borrow, they can print that money to buy it from you.
You understand? It's not that they suffer from it. They can do it . And then they can revalue the gold to 45,000, 100,000 or a million. And there are many things the government can do. They can also take away your Bitcoin. Or they can take your house away . I mean, if they could lock you in your house during COVID for no reason.
For no reason at all. Section 2.10 of the Federal Reserve Financial Accounting Manual details the explicit legal authority allowing the Secretary of the Treasury to order an immediate administrative revaluation of sovereign gold reserves. Recorded in official books at the 1971 statutory value of $42 an ounce, the national stock of 8,100 metric tons would rise to $20,000 or $40,000, generating $5 to $10 trillion in balance sheet liquidity.
This accounting maneuver does not require open market sales of bullion and directly credits the Treasury General Account. Allocating this capital to the retirement of government bonds eliminates approximately 40% of the public debt market, bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio back from 120% to 80%. The resulting monetary velocity accelerates core output growth by 20-30% over a multi-year cycle, allowing for capped loan yields and pushing trailing leverage ratios toward 20%.
Now, back to the interview. There is a provision, something called the Financial Accounting Manual for the Federal Reserve Banks. This is basically like the instruction manual or the rules for, you know, interactions between the Fed and the Treasury. And in Section 2.10, it is provided that the Treasury Secretary may instruct the Fed Chairman to revalue U.S.
gold. And this would then create a deposit in what is essentially the Treasury's checking account . Free and available. It's called the Treasury General Account or TGA. Uh, now, this is important because we still hold gold on our balance sheet at the statutory rate of $42 an ounce, which was in 1971.
So, at $4,200 an ounce, and if we assume we have all the gold that we say we have, which I think we probably do, but let's keep it simple. At $4,200 an ounce on our 8,100 tons of gold, today if we revalued gold, if Powell didn't call the pilot and say, "Okay, revalue it." The Treasury would have an extra free and available profit of about $1.2 trillion sitting in its checking account, with which it could do whatever it wanted , within reason.
The problem is we have 27 trillion, you know, the Treasury market is 25 trillion of debt. 37 trillion in total. I think the Treasury market is $ 27 trillion in size. So, it's only 4% of the Treasury market. It's not big enough. Now, if gold were at $20,000 an ounce, that would be about $5 trillion. Gold at $40,000 an ounce, you know, would get you about $10 trillion.
He could literally walk into the Treasury market with that $ 10 trillion windfall. Which is essentially just printing money using gold. We wouldn't have to sell an ounce of gold to do it. It's just an accounting trick. And it could buy back, you know, $10 trillion out of a market of $27 trillion, $25 trillion in Treasury securities, which is 40% of the market.
Now our debt-to- GDP ratio is not 120%, it's 80%. And by the way, the money multiplier of printing so much money and essentially injecting it into the economy , right? Because if you own Treasuries, you now have cash. You'll spend it. GDP would probably grow by 20, 30% for two or three years. The Fed would have to set rates, but the net result after two or three years would be a debt-to-GDP ratio probably at 25%, 20%.
And now the Fed can act independently, manage the monetary system, etc. Um no, I think it's really important. Those numbers seem absurd, but if you look at the market value of official U.S. gold—that is, the market price multiplied by our 8,100 tons as a percentage of the share of U.S. Treasuries held abroad—today, with the huge gold rally, we're at 11%.
Now, for comparison, in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell, it was at 20%. So gold would have to nearly double just to get back to 1989 levels by that metric. The long- term average is around 40%. So gold would have to quadruple from $4,200 an ounce just to return to its long-term mean. And in 1980, when we had a real dollar crisis, that percentage was 135 %.
So in 1980 foreigners could have brought all their foreign debt into the United States, demanded gold, taken it, and we would still have a third, 35%, of our gold left. That's a gold bubble. Our foreign debt was 135% covered by gold. Today, it is at 11%. So now, if Bessant were to unilaterally revalue it, he would have to create that market, I think, which means a lot of money creation, and it's complicated.
But if they could pursue policies that let the market revalue gold to those numbers, you know, 20%, or double, or quadruple, and then do that, that's the market. And there are steps we could take, right? We're, you know, there's nobody better than Trump at making a mess, right? He can walk in there and start breaking everything and people will say, 'Oh God, I need gold.' And if everyone drove up the price of gold for him, they might just make it.
They might make it. I mean, it's a quick way to do it. I think they do n't notice it at all at first. Um, they would notice a couple of things right away. They would notice that the S&P 500 is at its high today, tomorrow, the day after, and the day after that. And suddenly their pension fund would double in a month.
They would say, "Oh, that 's great." And if they own gold, boom, they're doing great. I think they would look at Bitcoin and be like, "Wow, Bitcoin is at $600,000 an ounce. It was at $110 just a month ago. That's weird." About 4-5 months later, you wouldn't even start to see prices in stores go up a bit .
Um, you'd see job ads everywhere, you know, all of a sudden, you know, the skilled trades, you know, there'd be an article in the Wall Street Journal about welders making $500,000 a year, you know, more than starting investment bankers. And you would see wealth inequality , with a delay, collapse in this country, you know, because basically the wealthy classes, meaning Wall Street and the elderly, where do the elderly have most of their money?
It's in the bonds. We would have simply implemented a tax increase on seniors to pay for what they are actually using, you know, the benefits that are due to their generation. The real cost is much higher than what they paid during their working career, thanks to inflation. And so it would be inflationary, but that's...that's where we're going.
We're at the negotiation stage where we can do it, right? And, in a way, you know, historically when nations find themselves in this position, they print money, they prefer to put the blame on someone else first, right? Let's go to war. Let's make war. This will fix things. Well, that's why what's happened with Chinese rare earths in recent weeks and months has been so significant.
We can't go to war. The offshoring of our industrial base over the past 40 years has become so extreme that critical parts of the US military are now produced in China. This summer, in just 11 days of medium-range fighting in the Middle East, we literally depleted 10 to 15 percent of our inventory of advanced air defense missiles.
We would run out of supplies in a month or two because we have outsourced too much. We have over-financed. So, the point is: okay, if we want to avoid inflating ourselves in this way, then let's go to war, let's hit someone else and they will have to pay the price. Maybe we can put the Europeans on edge for a while with some of the things we're trying to do, but ultimately there won't be any war to get out of this, because everyone needs China to produce war material, and China isn't interested in building weapons for the United States that the United States would then point at it.
So, you can read everything in detail. What is it about? It's von Mises: inflationary systems always end. Either you voluntarily walk away from it, or the monetary system goes into crisis. And what we 're talking about is the collapse of the monetary system with respect to gold. And, you know, 100% of fiat currency systems in history always end up collapsing against gold.
At least this allows us to change course, right? If Basson finds himself with $2, $5, or $10 trillion , he can now say, "OK, we'll subsidize a training program for skilled trades. We'll build a new generation of young farmers. We'll rebalance the economy. We'll use some of this money to build productive assets, whether it's farmers, welders, industrial capacity, or the power grid." It's a good result.
Is it inflationary? Certain. Will bondholders be penalized in real terms? Certain. But it 's a fact. The recapitalization of the sovereign balance sheet triggers profound changes in domestic and global markets. Capital immediately flows into stocks, propelling a continuous upward momentum that dramatically expands retirement accounts, while digital assets like Bitcoin soar toward $600,000.
This massive expansion of nominal liquidity eventually filters into general commerce, creating significant price spikes in retail stores within a few months. The resulting realignment of the domestic supply chain requires an aggressive expansion of the workforce, allowing industrial welders to earn annual salaries exceeding $500,000, easily surpassing starting salaries in Wall Street finance.
Conversely, nominal bondholders and retired populations absorb the underlying fiscal transfer, suffering a sharp contraction in real purchasing power through what acts as a hidden wealth tax. Traditional foreign conflicts cannot hide these fiscal dilemmas, as widespread industrial relocation has depleted national defense production lines, leaving advanced munitions stockpiles vulnerable during brief regional clashes.
Historically, every unbacked fiat currency architecture ends up disintegrating against physical gold; Channeling recovered reserve capital into agricultural programs, apprenticeships, manufacturing facilities, and electrical infrastructure offers the only sustainable path to rebuilding sovereign industrial capacits for watching.
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