저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
국가부채 이자비용이 연 1.1조 달러로 급증하며 인플레이션 위험이 커졌고, 금은 화폐 팽창의 수혜를 받는 안전자산이라고 주장한다. 40년 강세장은 끝나고 반도체·AI주가 크게 하락해 기업 파산이 이어질 수 있으며, 정부의 금 사유화 금지 같은 위험도 있어 자산 손실을 최소화하는 방어적 준비가 필요하다고 본다. 정부 공식 물가는 과소추정되었다는 견해도 제시한다.
다듬은 글
The cost of servicing debt is growing very rapidly because debt is growing and interest rates are higher than they were, say, 5 or 10 years ago. The level of debt exploded and was possible while interest rates were falling, because interest payments did not increase. You have to be your own central bank and store some gold on your own.
That is documented in my books, my writings, and my interviews. I have always recommended that people buy some gold every month and I continue to do so, but I am not sure that gold will go up, although it might go down less than other things. The rising cost of servicing the national debt has accelerated exponentially, exceeding one trillion dollars annually, as interest rates collide with unprecedented deficit spending.
When monetary authorities resort to continuous currency debasement to finance these obligations, aggressive monetary inflation becomes mathematically inevitable. Marc Faber , a veteran Swiss economist and editor of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report, argues that private savers should act as their own central banks by acquiring physical gold.
He predicts that, although precious metals won't necessarily rise overnight, gold will fall much less than broader asset markets during a major deflationary shock . Relentless monetary expansion serves as the ultimate catalyst for bullion, establishing tangible assets as the safest firewall against monetary collapse and irresponsible institutional governance.
Traditional paper portfolios face relentless erosion of purchasing power as sovereign deficits spiral out of control . Holding physical gold provides vital security against systemic fragility when market interventions exhaust their credibility. Converting depreciating fiat money into tangible assets remains the most reliable strategy for protecting personal balance sheets against increasing tax stres.
Monetary inflation is a boon for gold prices. An even greater gift to gold prices is a fool or buffoon like Mr. Trump and an arrogant and ignorant Treasury Secretary like Mr. Bessant. Mr. Warsh is not necessarily an academic who is very beneficial to gold because he is actually a well-trained economist.
I have to say that. I have read his speeches and his documents. He is very knowledgeable about economics, and not just modern economists, but he understands the theory of, say, classical economists from Adam Smith to Hayek, von Mises , Schumpeter, and others. And he knows that printing money is disastrous in the long run.
But, in theory, he would like to raise interest rates. But now he's a politician, will he be able to do it? He can, but he could face a lot of pressure from his colleagues at the Treasury Department . The Treasury Department is basically begging for lower interest rates, because at this level, we're not even talking about an increase.
The cost of servicing debt is growing very rapidly because debt is increasing and rates are higher than they were, say, 5 or 10 years ago. So, we didn't have any problems, and we had all these economists saying that debt doesn't matter, you know, modern monetary theories and all that. But in a bull market, everything, even absurdities , is believed.
The level of debt exploded and was possible as long as interest rates fell, because interest payments did not rise. But once rates started to rise after August 2020, it became burdensome and is now the biggest expense, at $1.1 trillion a year in government debt interest. Now, the interest on public debt, in theory, could be deflationary.
But, if you print money, it is of course hugely inflationary. And in that environment, gold is a store of value. And I have argued for the past 40 years that central banks can no longer be trusted . You have to be your own central bank and store some gold yourself. That is documented in my books, my writings, and my interviews.
I have always advocated that people should buy some gold every month. And I'm still doing it, but I 'm not sure gold will go up, although it might go down less than other things. You know, if I had to make a list of what will fall the most when the bubble bursts, I would list semiconductor and AI-related stocks.
Many of these companies will go bankrupt and the gold will remain, but as you know, there is always the risk that the government, especially under someone like Mr. Trump, will say, "Well , gold is fine, but private ownership of gold is unpatriotic." The government can own gold, but individuals are not allowed to own it.
You understand that if the government was able to lock down the population during COVID and the population accepted it, they accepted being locked down and forced to get vaccinated, everyone accepted it, then they probably won't do anything if the government comes along and says, "Sorry, we have to collect your gold." We pay for it, we give them some dollars that we print.
We could issue newly printed dollar bills signed by Mr. Trump. Because by then the United States will be called the land of Trump. If we even had any economic growth. Perhaps it was all nominal. We create the illusion of wealth, but in reality, we are no richer than before. We are poor. Certainly, if you look at the world in the 1950s and 1960s, I can say with great confidence that the United States was far ahead of any other country in the world.
Way ahead. I look at the world today and I'm not sure that the US is that far ahead of the rest, because there are societies like Singapore that could be richer per capita than the United States. I'm leaving out countries like Qatar and Dubai, which are special cases that could have a temporary boom or increase in wealth.
But societies like South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, and some cities in China, could have overtaken the United States. When the current financial bubble finally bursts, semiconductor and artificial intelligence stocks are expected to plummet even further, triggering a cascade of corporate bankruptcies in overvalued technology sectors.
Decades of excessive liquidity created an artificial illusion of permanent prosperity, but extended corporate valuations cannot be separated from underlying economic realities indefinitely. Beyond the market downturns, investors face the acute political risk of emergency capital controls , where authorities could prohibit private gold ownership under the pretext of patriotic duty.
Given historical precedents of public compliance during national crisis mandates, administrative decrees could easily confiscate private bullion and replace it with newly printed fiat currency. Navigating this precarious economic landscape requires recognizing that fragile growth stocks carry a risk of catastrophic collapse when speculative market liquidity completely evaporates.
Protecting essential purchasing power requires unwavering risk discipline before sudden deflationary shocks wipe out paper wealth . Now, let's get back to the interview. Well, one event that will undoubtedly occur, although we do not know the sequence, is that after this period of monetary inflation that we have had in the last 40 years.
Just remember, in 1982, the Dow Jones low was around 800, at 780. And since then, everything has gone up. This bull market in assets will come to an end. There is no doubt about this. When it will end, we don't know precisely. It could be tomorrow, in 5 years or even in 10 years, but it will happen one way or another.
And then asset holders will have to ask themselves: "Mark is known as a bear and has been a bear his whole life, so don't believe him." But just in case, he was right once in his life. So maybe we need to think about how to lose as little as possible, because we all own assets; we have stocks, real estate, cash, bonds, collectibles, wines, and precious metals.
So, how do we lose as little as possible? And the idea will be, of course, to invest in companies that are safe and so on; It is certainly a possibility, but people should also consider that in many cases throughout history, the government simply took everything from you. All. Think about the rich people who lived in 19th-century Russia.
The revolution of 1918 arrived. They lost everything. And Eastern Europeans after World War II. And the communist systems after 1945, when the Germans lost the war , lost everything. Including Germans on the eastern side of Germany. And in Shanghai in 1949, when the communists arrived, Shanghai was probably the richest and most economically relevant city in Asia, outside of Tokyo.
Until, until the war, the Second World War. The bond market in the United States is basically very healthy because it remains the world's largest fixed-income market and people can buy and sell Treasury bonds at any time. Now, the question, of course, is what will happen to interest rates and what will happen to the underlying inflation rate.
In other words , let's suppose the government says that inflation is 3.8%. The first question you should ask yourself, given that the government lies about everything, is why would n't they lie about increases in the cost of living? Because they want it to look good, so they don't have to pay increasingly higher interest rates.
Secondly, the adjustments to pension funds and social security each year. They want to keep interest rates low and they want to keep the inflation rate low. So, we have to ask ourselves, are these figures plausible or not? And I know several economists, not just one, who calculate a much higher inflation rate than the one published by the government .
Its inflation rate, using the old methods of calculating the increase in the cost of living, is much higher. It's between...they say more than 8 to 11%. I maintain that your family has a different inflation rate than mine because you might have young children. They go to kindergarten in New York or they go to American universities, and you could have a brother, a sister, a wife or a child with a major health problem.
And so, medical care is extremely expensive in the United States and in those other countries. Anyway, the point I'm trying to make is: it's very difficult to measure the increase in the cost of living. But I would say that, if you look at it yourself, how much do you spend and how much have prices gone up?
And I admit that I am amazed when I go to a supermarket, a department store, or a store like Home Depot or Lowe's and buy household items, you know, like a refrigerator, a television, a washing machine, or whatever. I'm amazed at how much prices have dropped. The historic 40-year bull market in global financial assets is predicted to come to an absolute end, closing an era of unprecedented paper wealth expansion.
Although the exact timeline is uncertain, whether it will happen immediately or over the next decade, a radical structural revaluation of stocks, bonds, and real estate is inevitable. In this environment, preserving capital requires asset holders to focus on losing as little as possible, rather than seeking speculative returns.
At the same time, official statistics fail to capture the true erosion of family wealth, while reported inflation metrics project an illusion of price stability. Alternative economic calculations using historical methods indicate that the real increases in the cost of living exceed 11% . Exacerbating these monetary fractures, the historical economic dominance of Western superpowers is steadily declining.
Dynamic Asian nations, including Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, are surpassing Western economies in per capita wealth, productivity, and living standards. Major historical regime changes , such as the Russian Revolution, post-war Eastern Europe, and mid-century Shanghai, demonstrate that governments can systematically wipe out private wealth overnight during a sovereign crisis.
Facing this imminent economic readjustment requires positioning oneself in defensive reserves of value before unsustainable systemic imbalances dissolve nominal market gains and unbacked paper assets collaps.
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