🔴 URGENT MESSAGE For Gold and Silver Stackers! GET OUT NOW Before It's Too Late! - Marc Faber

요약 보기

통화 팽창이 주식시장을 좌우하며 자산 인플레이션이 일반 가계의 실질 구매력을 떨어뜨린다고 주장. 상위 10%가 주식 자산의 대부분을 보유하고, 중앙은행의 화폐 희석이 금 가격에 반영된다고 봄. 미국 상업용 부동산은 최대 80% 하락했다고 언급하며, 소수 대형주(매그니피센트 7·반도체)에 쏠린 시장과 AI 데이터센터 과잉투자가 향후 자산 디플레이션과 기업 파산으로 이어질 수 있다고 경고. 장기적으로 실물 금이 자본 보존 수단이라고 강조.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Today, it is not the economy that determines the behavior of the stock market. It is the printing of money that determines what the stock market will do . And in my opinion, as long as the market goes up, this gives liquidity to individuals, so they can spend and the economy seems to be doing well. But in real terms, adjusted for inflation, households suffer because the cost of living increases more than wages.

02. And the price of gold has been reflecting that: this loss of purchasing power of money. Global stock markets are no longer driven by genuine corporate productivity, but by relentless monetary expansion that artificially inflates asset prices. Although rising stock market valuations create an illusion of widespread prosperity, ordinary households face serious financial hardship as real wages fail to keep pace with living expenses.

03. Marc Faber, editor of the report *Gloom, Boom, and Doom*, points out that this increase in liquidity masks a profound decline in the standard of living. The wealthiest 10% of the population owns 98 % of stock wealth, protected from soaring food costs, rising health expenses, and increasing rents. Meanwhile, central banks continually dilute the purchasing power of the currency, leaving ordinary workers with depreciating paper money.

04. Amid this sustained monetary degradation, physical gold is expected to remain the primary safe haven for capital preservation over the next 10 to 20 years. Although certain technology stocks may occasionally rally dramatically, tangible bullion provides crucial protection when paper wealth deteriorate analyz.

05. Most people think about inflation in this way: they go to the supermarket and the prices of the products they want to buy have gone up , or if they rent an apartment and the rent goes up, that's something that affects them; Or basic necessities like pharmaceuticals or their children's school fees, if they go up, that hurts the household budget because their wages generally don't increase at the same rate as prices.

06. But there is another type of inflation, which also comes from monetary inflation, which is when housing prices rise. In the United States, the homeownership rate is relatively high, so the population benefits from rising real estate prices. Stock prices rise, they call it a bull market, but it's basically caused by monetary inflation, and as stocks rise, who benefits?

07. The shareholders. Now, who are the shareholders? They, 10% of the population, own perhaps 90% of all shares, and 1% owns 70% of all shares. So these people don't care about the supermarket bill, they care about where the stock market is going. And we have seen it very clearly now. As soon as the stock market falls, these cronies take actions that please the Wall Street crowd and the market rises again.

08. So it's not a question of Israel or no Israel, or Iran or no Iran, it's a question of if the market goes down, you can be sure they'll find a solution to the war, and if the market goes up, then they become more aggressive again. But Trump wants to be re-elected and, in these midterm elections , he wants to get good results.

09. So now he is taking steps to appease the capital markets. You know, when I grew up and started working in 1970, the capital market, the stock market, and the bond market were small as a percentage of the economy. Let's say the stock market in the United States throughout the 1970s fluctuated between 20% of GDP and, let's say, 30% of GDP, more or less that.

10. Now, it has reached 150% of GDP. When I started working in 1970, bond issues of $50 million were considered very large issues. Nobody was issuing anything close to a billion dollars . Now, they have regular issuances of several billion dollars. It's as if it were nothing. The purchasing power of money has decreased.

11. In German, we say "das Geld wurde verwässert." "Verwässert" means it's like adding water to a good whisky. You add water and then it has this amount of whiskey and this amount of water. That is the situation now. And today, it is not the economy that determines what the stock market will do. It is the printing of money that determines what the stock market will do.

12. And in my opinion, as long as the stock market goes up, it liquidates individuals so they can spend and the economy seems to be doing well . But, in real terms, adjusted for inflation, households suffer because the cost of living rises more than wages. And the price of gold has been reflecting that, this loss of purchasing power of money.

13. In fact, I started buying, you know, a little bit of gold each month because I wasn't very rich at the time in the mid-80s. And I continued to do so. In other words, if you ask me, "Mark, you have to leave for 10 or 20 years. You have to go to jail because we in the financial sector will probably end up in jail someday." And you can't take care of your money and other things.

14. And if you want to preserve the purchasing power of your money, then I would say that gold is a good instrument for capital preservation. I am not suggesting here that gold has outperformed Apple over the past 20 years, or Google over the past 20 years, and so on . I believe that if you own the right stocks, you should outperform gold.

15. But the risk profile is very different. The current phase of rampant asset inflation faces serious structural imbalances, setting the stage for aggressive asset deflation. Commercial properties in major metropolitan centers have already fallen by up to 80% from their previous peak valuations, demonstrating that printed money cannot sustain all sectors of the market equally.

16. Broad market participation has completely disappeared, leaving the major stock market indices subject almost exclusively to semiconductor manufacturers and the " Magnificent Seven". Meanwhile, corporate capital spending on artificial intelligence data centers has exploded in a massive infrastructure boom.

17. Historical precedents show that debt-financed spending manias, whether in 19th-century canal networks or continental railway expansions, typically generate overwhelming excess capacity followed by systemic corporate bankruptcies. Even the most celebrated industrial companies eventually succumb to unmanageable overhead costs when capital outlays exceed sustainable cash flows; This growing mismatch exposes the underlying balance sheets to severe corrections once artificial liquidity diminishes.

18. Now, let's get back to the interview. People think, well, the cost of everything goes up and corporations will benefit, but that's not the case. Eventually, what may happen is that the asset inflation we had, the asset inflation that I consider to be the increase in stocks, the increase in real estate , both residential and commercial, collectibles, and so on.

19. That is essentially asset inflation. That this turns into asset deflation. And I want to emphasize here, people have an example of how this can happen. First, they used to buy commercial properties. Now, commercial property values ​​in most US cities have dropped significantly. In some cases, 80%; I've seen buildings that sold for hundreds of millions of dollars in 2018, and now they're selling for 20 million.

20. And so, you can have, you know, money printing, but that 's the problem with money printing, that not everything goes up in exactly the same way. What happens is that printing money raises the value of certain types of assets, say, stocks , and then it will raise the value of bonds or commodities or gold or other precious metals like silver and platinum, but it doesn't raise everything in the same way.

21. And that is why, at any time in an inflationary environment, some people benefit, but many do not benefit and lose. I mean, if you look at the stock market today, just look at the list of new highs. It's very disappointing. Very few stocks are reaching new highs because the market is largely driven by the Magnificent Seven and semiconductors.

22. Well, my observation is that capital expenditures related to data centers to support AI activities are enormous as a percentage of the economy. In other words, this is a massive surge in capital spending. And normally, I'm not saying in every case and every time, but what usually happens, especially in times of monetary easing, is that huge overcapacities develop.

23. Now, will that overcapacity manifest itself tomorrow or in five years ? We don't know, or I don't know. Perhaps some experts know, I do n't. But when it happens, I tell you, every boom in capital spending, whether it's the construction of canals, railroads , interstate highways, and so on, has produced excess capacity and a massive number of bankruptcies.

24. All the canal companies in the United States, including the most successful canal ever built in the world, the Erie Canal, went bankrupt. Yes, I mean, Wall Street is very good at inventing something riskier over and over again where they make money and then pass it on to customers and so on. And I used to work for Drexel Burnham Lambert.

25. So, if you're in fixed income, you should be familiar with it. And before that, I worked for White Weld, which was also, along with First Boston, more of a fixed-income securities firm in Europe. They were with Siegmund Warburg and Warburg and Company in London, the founders of the eurobond market. So I'm very familiar with fixed income investing, especially from my experience having managed Drexel's offices in Asia.

26. But, you can see that the credit cycle is always the same. It starts with companies issuing quality credits, and as the bull market progresses, the quality continually decreases. And especially in an environment of money printing, quality is thrown out the window, and the government—by government I mean the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department— pushes people into greater risk through artificially low interest rates until August 2020, before rates were raised.

27. But, you understand, if there are no interest rates at all, then every human being, every fund manager, rushes to where they can get something of high return. And so, the boom in private credit began largely due to the artificially low interest rates created by the Federal Reserve. The global credit architecture has undergone a radical transformation over the past five decades, expanding far beyond its original economic foundations.

28. During the 1970s, the stock market represented a modest 20 to 30% of gross domestic product, and a $50 million corporate bond issue was considered exceptionally large. Today, total stock market capitalization exceeds 150% of economic output, while multi-billion dollar corporate debt offerings occur regularly.

29. This immense inflation of financial assets does not reflect healthy production, but rather the systematic dilution of the currency. By keeping interest rates artificially suppressed, central bank authorities systematically pushed yield-hungry institutions into deeply speculative investments . This prolonged intervention catalyzed a huge boom in private credit, allowing Wall Street to design complex and high-risk financial instruments to capture fees before transferring liabilities to external portfolios.

30. Traditional credit cycles are steadily deteriorating as quality standards are abandoned in favor of yield seeking in a debt-saturated environment. Underwriting discipline is disregarded, leaving institutional balance sheets vulnerable to increasing stress when liquidity is reduced. .