저자: TomLee/EdYardeni—자막내화자식별불확실,제목기준TomLee우선,EdYardeni발언포함가능성 · 외국인
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AI 실적 주도 랠리로 펀더멘털은 양호하나 채권금리 상승·인플레이션 충격·대형 IPO 공급이 3개월 내 시험대가 될 수 있다. 반도체·DRAM 랠리는 과열 우려가 있어 Nvidia 실적 후 조정 가능성이 제기됨. Ed Yardeni는 Nvidia 실적 후 매도 통계, 메모리주 마진 과열, 나스닥 4~10%·S&P 2~7% 조정을 예상하며 소프트웨어를 최선호, 메모리는 '트레이드이지 투자 아님'으로 평가. Tom Lee는 AI 리더십과 소프트웨어·Mag7을 선호하며 반도체 랠리 지속을 낙관. 전쟁 종료 후 금융·경기민감주·소형주 수혜 전망.
다듬은 글
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the channel. You're going to hear from Tom Lee and Ed Yardeni in this clip in just a few moments where they explain this market, how the markets might trade over the next couple of months, where are the best places to be invested. So, we're going to take a listen to that.
It is a longer clip, okay, but I do recommend that you do so because it might surprise you a little bit. Afterwards, I'm going to share my perspective on this market. If you haven't heard that yet, that's something you must hear. all of this down below in the comment section. of us in what I believe are five, 10x or more opportunities in single stocks over the next 12, 24 months, you know, that's the place to be.
That's just the place to be. We had three 10xers in the past 12 months, and I think we could have even more than that uh more than that in the next uh 12 months. So, yeah, exciting times right now. That link is down below, but let's begin with this clip from Tom Lee and Ed Yardeni. This is just gotten a little bit out of hand.
You agree? Well, uh first of all, I I wasn't uh disappointed with the summit cuz I didn't expect much of anything. I I didn't really believe that there's going to be some sort of amazing deal coming coming out of it. Uh and we are in an earnings-led uh melt-up. Uh the fundamentals are definitely there for the uh for for what's been happening, and so valuation multiples haven't really gotten all that stretched uh relative to earnings.
And I mean, that's one of the reasons we came back uh so strongly uh since the bottom on March 30th is investors suddenly realized that uh the PE had come down uh to a large extent because E had gone up to a record high, and stocks looked really cheap. So, uh you know, I I I think we have to kind of take out the bumps in in in the market, and I think uh the the trend is still very much intact.
But, you heard what the professor said about the idea that investors are making this bet that this earnings ramp is going to go from here to infinity. I mean, you you've been you've been thinking about this. Didn't you call this like the Buzz Lightyear market or something like that the other day? theory of to infinity and beyond.
making a mistake thinking what has traditionally, as he said, been a cyclical part of the economy is somehow secular now, and and we're just going to project this out from here to, you know, 20 years from now? the AI AI may be a bigger deal than people understand, and I think the stock market's kind of hinting at it.
Uh I think, you know, economists usually view the economy as having three main resources: land, capital, and labor. I think data has become a fourth factor of production, and we we've all been collecting data, it's been stored away, and we really haven't squeezed it for all it's worth, and that's what AI is doing.
It's It's the digital revolution. It started in the 1960s, and we've accomplished an amazing ability to process a huge amount of data really quickly, really cheaply. And as we continue to do that, guess what? We create more data. There'll be never a shortage of data. Tom, how how do you assess this?
Um but, I agree that uh the US is benefiting the next 3 years, maybe even 10, 20 years from its leadership in AI. Uh but, I I kind of agree with Professor Siegel that, you know, if I look at the next 3 months, so not 3 years, I do think three tests are emerging for the stock market. You know, one is, of course, how is the Fed going to react to both uh the underlying inflation risks.
Um the second is the market doesn't really like when inflation is a concern and yields are rising, and I do think you we are seeing it now in PPI. I think there is in the pipeline a lot of inflation, not structural, but just inflation shock, but also energy shortage. And the third, of course, is, you know, I I think we're we have a lot of IPO, and that's a lot of supply.
So, I I think we're going to face some test later this summer. So, I think the risk reward is still great for tech, but I'm not sure about the broader market. How how would you respond to that? I mean, the market, some have suggested has been whistling past the graveyard of this tremendous move that we've seen in oil, and now you have yields joining it, and you've had some of the inflation data this week get a little alarming.
Have we been doing just that, ignoring what's right in front of our face? And and there's going to be a comeuppance as a result? plausible that uh we we may have a stretcher of a few weeks, maybe if if a few months uh where the where the market consolidates. Uh we we just had a pretty significant uh pullback in the market uh from the beginning of the year, basically, really from October of 20 uh of of 2024 uh sorry, 2025, when uh the uh the the the the the big cap stocks, the uh uh had a really quite a significant sell-off.
Mhm. And so, you know, we we've had we have we've already had the pullback. I guess people would like to have another opportunities uh to to buy here. But yeah, I mean, there's there's still this issue of the bond yield, but I think the bond yield is reflecting a normalization of the economy. I know, but the the parabolic nature of this move, SMH up six straight weeks.
We could end that this week, but nonetheless, up six straight. The DRAM ETF began this week this week with six and a quarter billion in assets under management finished yesterday with 9 and a half billion. It only had 77 billion a month ago. Nvidia up seven straight days. The Qs have been up so much they need to fall 12 and a half percent just to get back to the 50 day.
And and all of that was triggered by the first quarter earning season which was phenomenal. As Professor Siegel said, we I don't think any of us recall a situation where earnings have been surging in such a way other than coming out of a recession. So the fundamentals are good. Look, I think the bond markets are reacting to a better than expected economic growth.
It does look as though the economy is going to be showing something like 3 to 4% growth in the second quarter. It was weaker than that in the fourth and the first quarter and some of that had to do with the government shutdown then some really cold weather. So I I think we're going to be very pleasantly surprised by the strength of the economy and that's what will keep the market going.
I feel like Tom you painted a bit of a conundrum for you perhaps and and maybe other investors when you said yes, I I still am bullish on on the AI trade but I don't really like other parts of the market in the environment that we could be in with with inflation in the pipeline as you said and shocks in inflation, nothing structural but nonetheless concerning.
The rise in oil, the backup in yields but then if I sit back and I say well, how can I lean in now to parabolic moves that have already taken place and at the same time I don't like any of these other areas of the market cuz I agree with Tom then what in the world do I do? All right. So Scott, I'm I'm going to say something that might make the audience think I'm uh puzzling but the move in DRAM in my opinion is actually somewhat defensive because we know that if you're worried about inflation and petroleum shortage, uh there's even bigger shortages in memory.
So like people are buying what's going to work even if the macro environment gets tough. And I think that's why it makes sense for semis and DRAM to still do really well. Um And so I think that this pullback is going to be viable there. But to me, if someone's trying to make a bigger bet on tech, I think they're really attractive risk reward is still mag seven and software.
And Bill Ackman's buy of Microsoft really reinforces it. That's why software is actually still among our top picks right now. Well, Ed, last and quick, you're sticking with 8250, your your S&P target for calendar 26? that's going to be by the end of the decade. So, yeah. I I agree with with a lot of that, right?
AI, it's here to stay. Like I I don't think it's a bubble. But as I've talked about before, um the one thing that I really strongly disagree with there is that you know, the the memory stocks or the semiconductors are like the place to be right now. Um Nvidia reports earnings Wednesday. Statistically, about 80% of the time, 80-90% of the time, Nvidia sells off after earnings.
With a blowout number. Um Look at Nvidia stock, dude. It's it's it's went literally straight up. You know, do we think Nvidia's going to go up after earnings? Highly unlikely. You know, almost every single time following Nvidia earnings, they sell off. Why? Because Nvidia rallies before earnings, they price in the good news, and then we get the good news, and people are like, okay, catalyst is over.
Let's uh rotate into something else. Okay? Now, for the memory storage stocks, I think that's a totally different scenario here. I think uh Samsung, you know, some of their supply issues, they've had some delays in bringing new supply to the markets. That has given pricing power to all of them. Okay?
Crazy the craziest margins. Like Micron is bringing 60% net profit margins. That means after everything, after paying their employees, after paying for product, after paying taxes, they're bringing in 60% net margins to the bottom line. That's unsustainable, right? Um And and and ultimately these stocks are priced in maybe a decade of you know, normal growth in in a year.
I would stay absolutely far away from, steer clear of memory stocks. I like Nvidia, AMD, Intel more than the memory stocks, but yeah, as as Ed Yardeni was saying, you could see the markets consolidate or trade sideways for many months, right? That's That's my my expectation at this point that you know, Nvidia's going to sell off after earnings as they normally always do.
And then money's going to rotate into software. Yeah, I I agree with Tom Lee's call there. Software is by far the easy winner right now with bond yields skyrocketing. Um you know, all of these concerns with the Iran war and oil and inflation, software is immune to all of that, right? Bond yields have no effect on whether or not software companies continue to subscribe to software.
Okay? Um the state of the economy, none of that is is determined or determines how software companies perform, right? Um So and you have software stocks at crazy cheap valuations. Software is the place to be right now. Okay, but I do think especially as semiconductors sell off, you're going to see that software trade really come to life.
Look at Friday. Semiconductors deep in the red, software deep in the green. You know, there's there's a very good um you know, risk-reward in software right now. Just crazy cheap valuations. I can't say the same for semiconductors. Now, what happens to the Mag 7 after Nvidia reports earnings? Do they sell off alongside Nvidia or do they hold up?
If Mag 7 holds up, markets are going to fall less. Okay? If Nvidia reports earnings and sells off and Mag 7 sells off alongside of it, it's going to make the headline indexes look pretty rough. Now, I've revised some of my targets a little bit um for the Nasdaq, I think you're going to fall about 4 to 10% from the highs.
Okay? Um 4% from here would put you down to 693. Um 10% down would put you back to about 647. Still higher than where you were on April 17th, right? So, I don't think we're going to have a disaster. I do think money's going to rotate into other areas. Um besides just semiconductors. Like the only thing that has worked in markets basically since uh the end of April is semiconductors.
Okay? So, I think a 4 to 10% decline on the Nasdaq over the next 3 months likely makes sense. Okay? For the S&P, I think between a two and 7% pullback makes sense. 2% pullback puts you back to about 735. Uh 7% pullback puts you exactly back to your previous all-time highs, which puts you back to about April 15th on the S&P.
About a month ago, you could erase the last month of gains if Nvidia sells off after earnings. We continue to have a problem in the bond market, the war with Iran continues, and oil stays high, and you have Mag 7 kind of lull out here, right? Uh just because the market cap weightings, you could see software do really well.
You could see other areas of this market do really well. But, if Nvidia sells off and Mag 7 kind of does nothing or sells off a little bit, you're going to have the markets come down pretty pretty aggressively. Okay? So, software by far the best place to be right now, but I do think software's going to be a winner um over the next 12 24 months.
I think software um do we remember a year ago Google, right? Nobody wanted to own Google. They're like, "Google's dead, right? ChatGPT's going to take over search." Did that happen? No. Is Google one of the most loved companies in the markets today? Yes. I think uh people are going to come to that realization around a lot of software companies that they're not going to be hurt, but they're actually going to benefit benefit from here via AI.
So, software's a clear winner. I do think when the war with Iran ends, financials and cyclicals and small caps and tech excluding Mag 7, they're going to be the ones that really benefit. Okay? If the war with Iran lasts a while, after the semiconductor trade chills out, you could see that come back to life over the summertime.
But, my expectation is the war with Iran will end. Okay? The bond market will figure itself out. We're going to have a pullback or correction in the markets because of semiconductor selling off after Nvidia earnings, because of Mag 7 likely selling off a little bit, um and that money rotating into other areas.
But, once the war with Iran ends, semis are not going to continue to outperform. Mag 7's not going to continue to outperform. It's going to be cyclicals, financials, tech excluding Mag 7 like software. That's it. You know, some of these semi stocks like the the Micron, Sandisk, etc. You know, they might look like SMCI a year or two from now.
You know, they were the love SMCI was the darling on Wall Street in 2024. Everyone was FOMOing into this stock. What happened? Well, reality caught up to the stock. To investors. Stock's down 80% in the last 2 years. Don't be surprised if Sandisk has a bit of an SMCI kind of a reality here. The charts look almost identical.
So, I don't agree with Tom Lee and what he said there with the DRAM stocks, the the memory stocks. Yeah, could that trade continue if certain things play out? It could. But that's it. It's a trade. It's not an investment. Definitely not an investment at this point. Okay? Um so, I think it's time to to look for better opportunities and I've given you tons of them in this video.
. Obviously, come to your own conclusions. I'm just trying to look out and see what the markets are going to do next, what makes sense and what is reasonable here. You know, this might not make sense to you, but I think I think 12 months from now, even a month from now, 3 months from now, into the future, it's going to it's going to be obvious that uh you know, the the tides are shifting.
ection. Hit the like button as well as subscribe to the channel if you guys haven't not done so already. Have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next one.
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