Bill Ackman: All Analysts Are WRONG; This Is Where The Economy Is Going...

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Stoic Finance 영상은 Bill Ackman의 2021년 8월 CNBC 인터뷰 발언을 비판적으로 분석하며, 그의 낙관론이 설득력이 없다고 주장한다. 인터뷰 내용: Ackman은 백신 접종 확대로 경제가 강하게 회복되고 사람들이 외식·여행·출근을 재개하면서 소비 붐이 올 것이라고 봤다. 델타 변이가 있어도 사회에 큰 변화는 없을 것이라고 보았다. 인플레이션 전망: Ackman은 인플레이션이 일시적이 아니라 'new normal'에 가깝다고 보았다. 주거비(OER·임대환산)가 CPI에서 과소집계되고 있으며 주택 가격 급등과 임금 상승이 지속된다고 주장했다. 약 5조 달러 규모의 재정 부양, 예금 증가, 백신 접종에 따른 수요 회복을 근거로 들었다. 금리 전망: Ackman은 연준의 여전히 완화적인 정책에도 불구하고 금리가 상승할 것이라고 보았다. 시장 전망: 시장 우려에도 불구하고 Ackman은 새로운 호황 사이클을 예상했고, 주가가 계속 상승할 것이라고 낙관했다. 영상 제작자의 비판: 영상은 인플레이션이 지속되면 고금리로 이어져 경제를 둔화시키고 호황을 끝낼 것이라며 Ackman의 논리에 모순이 있다고 지적한다. 또 Ackman이 과거 Herbalife와 시장 전체에 대해 몰래 숏 포지션을 구축한 뒤 TV에서 폭락을 경고했던 사례를 들며, 이번에도 포지션을 유리하게 만들기 위해 상승을 부추긴다고 의심한다. 시청자에게 그의 주장을 증거 없이 믿지 말고 투자 판단의 근거로 삼지 말라고 권고한다. 언급 자산: 미국 주식시장(S&P500 등 전체 시장)에 대해 상승 전망, 미국채금리는 상승 전망, 미국 주거·임금 인플레이션 지속 언급.

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01. bill ackman might not be the richest hedge fund manager out there but he is probably one of the most vocal he founded and still runs pershing square capital management a hedge fund that manages over 13 billion dollars and in doing so ackman has made himself a multi-billionaire as well he has not however done this without controversy he is pretty much the definition of a manipulative hedge fund manager who likes to decide upon a company short it to oblivion then go on all the different media sites cnbc bloomberg and fox news and tell everyone that the company is about to collapse most recently he did this just last year when the lockdowns and the pandemic were kicking off ackman went on tv and told the world that hell is coming the economy is going to crash the market is going to crash and everyone should pull their money out and save themselves what he failed to mention however is that he had spent the past few weeks building up a short position getting ready to capitalize and profit off of the fear he spread in the markets needless to say he's not very popular amongst those of us who lament market manipulation and short sellers but he still has a huge platform and he still likes to abuse it just last week ackman went on cnbc to give us his two cents about the markets the economy and what he thinks is going to happen now i'll show you what he had to say but i need to remind you that this man is famous for manipulating the markets for doing interviews just like this for pushing his narrative all to make money at our expense like and comment we're putting out loads of content i hope what it does is it motivates anyone who doesn't have a vaccine to get a vaccine um i don't think it's going to change behavior to a great extent i think people are done i am with uh you know being in a cave right hiding from the rest of the world they want to go out they're going to have fun they're going to go restaurants you're going to see a massive my view economic boom um you know on the margin there'll be some people who are afraid some people are afraid of getting a vaccine and they're therefore afraid of going out um but i don't think i think we're gonna have an extremely strong economy uh come the fall i think people gonna return to work in september um and i think companies are gonna insist on vaccines and i think it's a good thing and you know i i have you know even some people in my own company that uh i would say probably three people who haven't gotten a vaccine and um in one case you know sort of a philosophical objection or maybe a religious one and you know my question is you take antibiotics you take other drugs you have you know if you take an antibiotic for you know some other kind of infection why won't you you know have a vaccine and would you rather other people are concerned about the risk and you know the risk is in my view a lot greater that you get covid than if you look at the side effects i'm forgetting so what what's what's going to be the the bill after policy what's what's going to be the policy so for those three people together yeah so i'm doing my best to convince everyone who hasn't gotten a vaccine with by being convincing and then we'll by the time we everyone comes back to work we'll decide what we're going to do about our vaccine policy i also want to ask you just three percent yeah i wanted to ask you about inflation uh and and and but both the inflation that we are seeing maybe some of the supply chain issues that are are creating some of this uh the big question is this is this the new normal or is it transitory i'm in more of closer to the new normal with respect to many sources of inflation so one i think inflation is understated you know there's very very significant uh kind of uh and they talk about home equivalent uh rents or ownership equivalent rents and those are really understated if you look at what's going on in the housing market we have a housing boom you know talk to a home builder you know there's everything's being is on allocation you have to you know and have a friend who knows the ceo in order to get by buy a home so it's uh you're seeing housing prices go way up i think the way the data is collected uh for you know the uh the kind of cpi or other inflation numbers really understate what's going on uh in housing and that's you know approaching a third of inflation there's housing inflation there's real wage inflation you know one of the big issues and i think this is not a transitory thing at all uh which is recruiting let you know uh trying to get people to come work in a hotel work in a restaurant i think it's harder now uh because of uh some of the stimulus i think will be a little bit easier uh come september but a lot of people made sort of life choices and various things um i think you're going to have to pay people to come to work and i think that's a that's actually a big positive it's probably a long-term positive for the economy so you've had you know five trillion of stimulus you have an increase in wages you have a lot of savings you have the stimulus of a lot of people being vaccinated around the same time all these things lead to massive massive economic growth and demand and we still have an extremely accommodative federal reserve so i think rates are going up i think rates are going up so despite the doom and gloom in the markets right now bilakman is actually bullish he thinks we're set for another boom cycle that the markets are going to keep rising and he thinks it's mostly due to the situation we are in with the pandemic ending right now first he explained how he thinks that the supposed long-term effects of the virus were overstated and that most people will not be changed long term by the last year people are going to go back to shops and restaurants they're going to go back into work and start earning more money they're going to start spending money instead of saving or investing it again as well the vaccine rollout is also going well most vulnerable people have already been vaccinated and most people who want the vaccine have already got it this should stop the virus from spreading as much and it has already started to save lives ackman thinks that the delta variant may encourage more people to get vaccinated but other than that he doesn't think it will cause that much of a change in our society and to be honest i pretty much agree with him here people have been locked up in their homes for over a year now and everyone i know is just sick and tired of it and ready to get back to normal people want to eat out go to bars and restaurants shop again see friends and family and that's good for the economy countless companies are also pushing to get employees back in the office and lots of other companies are making it clear that people who want to work from home will have to accept pay cuts what doesn't make sense is ackman's belief that inflation is here to stay that it's not transitory and yet the economy and the markets will boom anyway now if that sounds weird then good it should sound weird there's no shortage of bulls in today's market investors like kathy wood are going around exclaiming their beliefs that fears are unfounded and that inflation is basically a lie but that's just the point they're saying that inflation is false and then the market will boom because inflation is false ackman just told us the opposite he said that the market is ready to boom but that high inflation is also here to stay now i agree with him that inflation is not transitory there have been wage increases in all sorts of jobs from banking to fast food consumer goods have increased in price along with lots of commodities as well and ackman is also right that a lot of inflation that we have seen isn't being reported on by the media and it hasn't been acknowledged by the fed house prices have soared car prices have risen asset prices like stocks and shares but also crypto classic cars and watches have all increased in value as well all of this is likely due to the expansion of the money supply and it isn't going to just disappear the problem is that consistently high inflation is not good for the economy like ackman seem to suggest it's absolutely destructive and awful for the economy it sends people into panic mode and makes them cautious for the future it often leaves some people's salaries lacking but most importantly it will lead to the fed raising interest rates now put very simply raising interest rates will grind our economy to a halt any person with debt will see their repayments increase asset prices will fall as people have to liquidate their positions to pay off their now more expensive debt meaning people who are foolish enough to think that a new rolex or an nft was a good investment will be left out of pocket people who want to buy a house won't be able to afford what they're used to meaning house prices will come down companies who carry a lot of debt who are maybe planning to use it to fund growth and innovation will quickly find that the interest they're paying is more than the growth they're seeing interest rates will rise as a direct consequence of high inflation and rising interest rates will end this boom cycle so why is ackman telling us that the sky is green when we can clearly see it's blue well it's pretty hard to tell to be honest but by looking at his history we can make a pretty good educated guess around 10 years ago ackman secretly built up his largest ever short position against herbalife only to then make the rounds on all the biggest tv channels to tell everyone it's about to crash just one year ago ackman secretly built up a huge short position against the market as a whole only to then make the rounds on tv again telling everyone that hell is coming and that it's about to crash i think it's pretty likely that ackman wants to pump the market higher he isn't ready to exit his position and wants to make a hefty profit so he is trying to soothe fears of a bubble and promote the idea that a boom is right around the corner he might be stating that inflation is here to stay because he doesn't want to damage his reputation by being wrong or maybe he thinks that the fed is going to tolerate high inflation for far longer than the rest of us do whatever the real reasons behind his statements are one thing is clear we should not trust bilakman we should not believe what he's saying unless he provides the evidence to prove it and we certainly should not be basing our investment decisions off of his if you're new to the channel and you enjoyed the consider liking the video and leaving a comment and youtube will do its part by pushing this video out to more people just like you there are a few links down below in the description where you can get a guaranteed 25 from crypto.com up to 250 in free bitcoin from blockfi and up to 2 300 in free stocks from weibull there's also a link to the brokerage that i use most of the time called etoro that you can check out if you want thanks for watching until next time