저자: StoicFinance · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 레이 달리오의 중국 시장 발언을 반박하며, 중국 정책 변화는 반자본주의가 아니라 국가자본주의의 일관된 흐름이라고 주장한다. 달리오 발언 요지: 지난 40년간 중국은 시장경제와 혁신을 허용해왔고, 서방 투자자들은 이를 과소평가해 수익 기회를 놓쳤다는 취지다. 달리오는 최근 디디(DD) 상장 보류와 데이터 규제, 교육기업 비영리화 등을 국가가 국민 이익을 위해 취한 조치라고 옹호했다. 영상의 반박: 진행자는 달리오가 중국 공산당 입장을 그대로 반복한다고 비판한다. 디디의 정보 유출 주장은 사실이 아니며 처벌 성격이라고 본다. 교육 규제는 불평등 해소라는 명분이지만 외국인 교사 금지 등은 이념 교육 목적이라고 주장한다. 시장 사례: 워런 버핏의 BYD 투자, 소프트뱅크의 알리바바 투자, 캐시 우드와 찰리 멍거의 중국 투자 등을 들어 중국 투자 기회가 실재한다고 본다. 반면 중국 정책은 예측이 어렵다는 점을 강조한다. 정책 해석: 2015~16년 위안화 절하, 증시 부양 등은 자본시장 발전 방향을 바꾼 것이 아니라 일시적 조정이라는 시각이다. 중국 규제 당국이 규율을 찾아가는 과정에서 혼란이 생긴다고 설명한다. 지정학 및 투자 전략: 미국의 중국 기업 상장 규제와 연기금 투자 제한 가능성 등 지정학 리스크를 언급한다. 미국과 중국 시장 모두 포트폴리오에 포함할 가치가 있다는 결론이다. 인권 및 달리오 평가: 홍콩 언론자유 문제, 신장 문제, 코로나 초기 대응 논란을 들어 달리오가 공산당을 옹호하는 것은 거짓이라고 비판한다. 달리오의 중국펀드 홍보 동기나 공산당에 대한 두려움 때문일 수 있다고 추측한다. 채널 측면: 중국 관련 발언 이후 유튜브 광고 수익이 60% 감소했다고 밝히며, 그럼에도 중국 문제를 다루는 것이 더 중요하다고 강조한다. 영상 말미에 거래소 및 증권사 추천 링크가 있다.
다듬은 글
a lot has been made recently surrounding china and their anti-capitalist actions over the last few weeks but one investor who notably stayed quiet has recently come out with an article where he explains his point of view on the chinese markets i am of course talking about the legendary investor ray dalio the founder and chief investment officer of bridgewater associates the largest hedge fund in the world now i'm going to show you guys what he had to say explain his history when it comes to investing in china and then give my take on it all videos recent chinese policy moves related to number one dd's listing and controls on its data usage and number two china's education companies being converted into non-profits have created a lot of doubt about capitalism and capital markets in china so i'd like to help clarify what's going on there i understand that it's confusing to people who are not close to what's happening since i started going to china 36 years ago i have found that most western observers who do not have direct contact with policy makers and who don't follow in detail the patterns of the changes have tended to not believe that the ccp's usage of capital markets to foster development is real they interpret moves like these two recent ones as the communist party leaders showing their true anti-capitalist stripes even though the trend over the last 40 years has clearly been so strongly towards developing a market economy with capital markets with entrepreneurs and capitalists becoming rich as a result they've missed out on what's going on in china and will probably continue to miss out in this case the policy makers signal to dd that it might not be best to go ahead with the listing and they understandably want to deal with the data privacy issue in the case of the educational tutoring companies they want to reduce the educational inequality and the financial burden on those who are desperate to have their children have these services but can't afford them by making them broadly available they believe that these things are better for the country even if the shareholders don't like it so ray dalio basically started off by saying that over the last 40 years china has had a relatively capitalistic market that has allowed innovation and development to take place and it's also allowed capitalists to build businesses and become fantastically wealthy and he is right china has allowed bright people like jack ma to build companies and make themselves and everyone else far richer dalio then pointed out that most western investors have never really believed this to be the case and as a result they have missed out on some great returns but this is just not true and we can show that very easily warren buffett invested in byd a chinese auto manufacturer just over a decade ago and he turned a few hundred million dollars into around 10 billion softbank's vision fund and its figurehead masayoshi-san infamously invested in alibaba and made themselves billions in the process kathy wood has invested in china charlie munger has invested in china so if all these infamous hugely successful investors have actually been investing in chinese companies why did dalio try to tell us otherwise well the truth is only he knows but there are some things that give us an idea as to his motives last year bridgewater associates ray dalio's hedge fund released their brand new china fund which obviously invested in chinese companies now it's easy to forget this but dalio is a salesman and he is constantly trying to sell his product his funds to customers or investors i think he knows that millions of people are going to see what he just said and he thinks that if he portrays the idea that he is the only western fund manager to truly get china then he might win himself some more capital now obviously i don't know this for sure but i'm more than willing to hear what you think if you have any other ideas for what his angle might be next dalio basically said that china and the ccp are behaving in a way to maximize the benefit to their citizens and not for any other reason he parroted the lines from the ccp about dd leaking information to the west and said that the ccp was acting in its own citizens best interest by punishing them for their ipo now i don't think i even really need to say this but dd was not leaking information to the west and the ccp's actions were purely punitive i know this you know this dalio knows this as well he then went on to say that the education sector reform was as a result of the country trying to reduce inequalities and make it easier for poor people to get a good education now this is again obviously a lie when in history has removing the free market and preventing the profit motive actually benefited the people on top of that how on earth does banning foreign shooters from teaching chinese children help inequality why would the ccp want to stop foreigners from being teachers if not for sinister reasons the ccp is very clearly trying to use education as propaganda in order to make sure the children are being taught what they want them to learn and not western values like democracy and freedom of speech i really hate to say it but it is at this point of hearing what dalio has to say that you should be asking questions like why is he lying to our faces and why is he regurgitating the communist party statements but if you want to hear him out more then don't worry there's more to come i remember a number of such analogous misinterpretations for example i remember how the chinese retail investor bubble bursting led to government stock buy-in and the government trying to manipulate the market for a while i also remember the chinese currency plunge in 2015 to 16 resulting from the people's bank of china wisening the band and how that led to many investors pointing to these developments as evidence that policymakers were turning away from developing capital markets some skeptical investors looked at these moves as inappropriate anti-free market interventions even though these same moves happened many times in many capitalist markets and even though the fiscal and monetary policy inventions in the u.s and other developed markets dwarfed the chinese government's interventions in its markets through it all chinese policy makers successfully managed to fall out and pursued their goals i.e the direction of their actions never changed it has been in support of a fast and steady development of capital markets entrepreneurship and openness to investment to foreign investors so i encourage you to look at the trends and not misunderstand and over focus on the wiggles to understand what's going on you need to understand that china is a state capitalist system which means that the state runs capitalism to serve the interests of most people and that policy makers won't let the sensitivities of those in the capital markets and rich capitalists stand in the way of doing what they believe is best for most people for the country rather those in the capital markets and capitalists have to understand their subordinate places in the system or they will suffer the consequences of their mistakes for example they need to not mistake their having riches for having power for determining how things will go you also need to understand that in this rapidly developing capital markets environment chinese regulators are figuring out appropriate regulations so when they are changing fast and aren't clear that causes these sort of confusions which can be misconstrued to be anti-capitalist moves also you need to understand that the global geopolitical environment changing leads to some changes you can see that reflected in the us government's policy shifts such as a changing its policies about chinese companies listings in the united states and b threats to prohibit american pension funds from investing in china assume such things will happen in the future and invest accordingly but don't misinterpret these wiggles as changes in trends and don't expect this chinese state-run capitalism to be exactly like western capitalism having said that i do think it is unfortunate that chinese policymakers don't publicly communicate the reasoning behind their moves more clearly as for investing as i see it the american and chinese systems and markets both have opportunities and risks and are likely to compete with each other and diversify each other hence they both should be considered as important parts of one's portfolio i urge you to not misinterpret these types of moves as reversals of the trends that have existed for the last several decades that let you scare you away so what did ray dalio tell us there well he told us that china's version of state capitalism is and always has been used to ensure the best outcome for the largest amount of people i don't think i need to tell you how ridiculous it is to hear that because once again dalio has just lied to your face history has proven to us that governments do not know what is best for their citizens the evidence is littered amongst every single failed socialist state in the world the market is the most efficient allocator of resources and that has always been the case and this is also where i think it's important to note dalio's history regarding china he said it himself that he started visiting and investing in china 36 years ago put simply that means he has been investing in china before the tiananmen square incident and afterwards he practically saw with his own eyes what happened and is still sitting there and telling you that the ccp acts in the interests of its own citizens he is well aware of what is happening in xingyang province yet he still sits there and lectures us on governments acting in their citizens best interests he ignores the violation of basic human rights like that of free speech in hong kong and he even had the audacity to claim that china's handling of the virus over the last year shows how much the ccp cares that was after it emerged that china had disappeared scientists who tried to warn of the virus and after it emerged that china had bribed the who the world health organization to hide its outbreak from the rest of the world after everything we've just heard him say and how easy it is to refute his claims it's blatantly obvious to me that he is lying the reason behind his lying is not quite as obvious it's likely that he is trying to promote his china fund to investors and it's likely that he is afraid if he speaks out against the ccp then he will be unable to continue to operate as he does it's possible that he has literally been bought by the ccp but to be perfectly honest that's very unlikely what we really have here is someone who is too weak to say no dalio is too weak to tell the truth he's too weak to tell you that while there may be money up for grabs in china it involves making a deal with the devil and the truth is this sort of thing is happening to me right now since starting to talk about china the ccp and their actions my ad revenue from youtube has dropped my 60 if i were just to make my usual videos to ignore what's going on in china i would be making a lot more money right now but sometimes there are more important things than money if you're new to the channel and you enjoyed this me out and help spread the word then consider liking the video and leaving a comment and youtube will do its part by pushing this video out to more people just like you there are links down below in the description where you can get a guaranteed free twenty five dollars from crypto.com up to 250 dollars in free bitcoin from blockfi and up to 2 300 in free stocks from weibull there's also a link to my favorite brokerage called etoro that you can check out as well thanks for watching until next time
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