저자: TomHeavey · 외국인
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결론: 발표자는 비트코인을 과장도 폄하도 하지 않고, 캐시 우드의 ARK 보고서 기준으로 비트코인의 특성과 장단점을 설명하는 교육 영상이라고 소개한다. 비트코인의 작동 원리: 은행 장부처럼 모든 거래가 공유 장부에 기록되며, 여러 참여자(채굴자)가 거래를 승인하는 구조라고 설명한다. 캐시 우드 ARK 보고서의 4가지 기준: 가치의 글로벌·자유로운 교환, 부의 완전한 소유와 보호, 규칙의 신뢰성·예측 가능성, 시스템 무결성의 검증 가능성을 제시한다. 기준별 비교: 중앙 기관이 자금 흐름을 통제하는 기존 체계와 달리 비트코인은 주소만으로 참여하며, 개인키를 가진 사람이 소유권을 가진다고 설명한다. 범죄 자금 논쟁: 비트코인이 마약 거래 등에 쓰였다는 인식이 있지만, 최근 연구상 불법 거래 비중은 약 0.5%라고 언급한다. 공급 한도와 인플레이션: 비트코인 총량은 2,100만 개로 고정되어 있어 법정화폐 인쇄와 대비되며, 2020년 미 달러의 약 22%가 그해 인쇄되었다는 수치를 인용한다. 금과의 비교: 비트코인은 수학적으로 금보다 희소하다고 보지만, 2020년 들어 비트코인과 주식시장의 상관관계가 높아지고 금과의 상관관계는 낮아졌다고 짚는다. 현재는 안전자산보다 위험자산으로 인식된다고 평가한다. 무결성: 거래 내역과 코드가 공개되어 누구나 검증할 수 있다는 점을 장점으로 든다. 단점 및 결론: 사용의 어려움과 큰 가격 변동성을 주요 단점으로 꼽고, 비트코인은 기존 화폐를 대체하기보다 금과 유사한 면이 있는 독특한 자산이라고 정리한다. 다음 편에서 투자 관점의 수치 분석을 예고한다. 출연자 전망: 특정 가격 방향에 대한 예측은 제시하지 않는다.
다듬은 글
bitcoin depending who you listen to it's either the best thing since sliced bread and it's gonna make gold pointless someday or it's only used by drug dealers and criminals listen there's so much nonsense out there about bitcoin as an investor what i think is much more interesting than any of that rubbish is when someone like kathy wood the famous tesla investor who you've probably seen just about everywhere by now when a seasoned investor like her comes out and shares her thoughts on it when someone who i really respect is willing to actually put her money where her mouth is that's what gets my attention so her fund arc recently released a paper discussing what bitcoin is and what it isn't in this video i'm gonna break it down for you and add in my own critique in there too i'm not gonna hype up bitcoin nor am i gonna throw baseless claims at it either this video is just to teach you about what bitcoin is what it isn't what it has going for it and of course some of the negatives too this is going to be really interesting as well because we've recently heard the two public us companies two public us companies square and micro strategy have bought and are holding hundreds of millions of dollars of bitcoin between them so whatever else regular people might think about bitcoin is fascinating to see how people who are simply so much smarter than myself at least are taking it extremely seriously people who run huge companies worth many billions of dollars so let's jump into it and i'll break it down for you i'm gonna start by explaining what bitcoin is but wait wait wait don't freak out because i've seen the panic that goes through most people's eyes when you say you'll explain what bitcoin is so don't worry i'm gonna make it shockingly simple trust me let's first think about a regular bank account just a regular bank account in our example you're going to send your friends some money from your bank account to their bank accounts what happens well now that everything is digital the bank doesn't exactly need to move physical cash anywhere essentially the bank just has one gigantic excel spreadsheet next to your name it says one thousand dollars next to your friend's name it says 500 if you send them 250 the bank is just gonna minus 250 from your account and add 250 to their accounts pretty simple i think we can all understand that well bitcoin is actually surprisingly similar with bitcoin there is also a giant spreadsheet if you want to send your friend let's say half a bitcoin that half a bitcoin is going to be minus from your account and added to their account just like before on a basic level if you can if you can just understand that sending money is essentially just moving zeros on a spreadsheet you're actually pretty much halfway there now if you can answer the question of who decides if the zeros should be moved or not if you can answer that you're pretty much all of the way there so let's try to answer that but when we had the bank before of course the bank is the person who controls the excel spreadsheet so when you click send on your phone the bank decided whether the money would be sent or not in the case of bitcoin though there is no one single company or individual that controls this spreadsheet and this is what confuses most people so when you transfer money using bitcoin who does decide if the money should be sent or not well there are thousands or even millions of people worldwide who can all keep a copy of that spreadsheet on their computer instead of it just being held and accessed by that one bank anyone can access it in fact if you wanted to you can even go and check it out after this video and some of those people who choose to access it also help to run the network by approving your transfer so when you transfer your money as long as the majority of people who are helping the network give a thumbs up your bitcoin is gonna be transferred to your friend and there are economic incentives sprinkled in there to ensure that the majority will approve your transfer in other words if the majority didn't approve your transfer they probably cost themselves quite a lot of money by damaging the network well as the majority of people generally don't like losing money there hasn't been a single example of this happening in bitcoin's entire history so to recap moving money around is just moving noughts on a spreadsheet the real question is just who controls that spreadsheet in the case of banks only the bank can see or edit the spreadsheet in the case of bitcoin anyone in the world can see it and certain people known as miners choose to be part of that group that can also edit the spreadsheet and of course anyone can mine because no one is in control to say that you can't be part of it as long as the majority of those people the miners they don't like flushing money down the drain they're gonna help the network run properly and that means they're going to approve your transfer so you might need to rewind and listen to that last minute again just to let it properly sink in because believe me it took me a long time to get my head around it but once you do you pretty much understand the core concept of what bitcoin is and i think that's pretty cool so now that we understand roughly what bitcoin is what implications are there when we take the spreadsheet out of the bank's hands and put it into the hands of anyone who wants to keep hold of it well this is where kathy's team come in because they've put together this paper and i'm gonna run you through the highlights essentially kathy's team give four criteria that a financial system must meet number one value should be exchanged globally and freely number two wealth should be owned wholly and protected in other words people should be in control of what they own number three rules should be enforced reliably and predictably and number four integrity of the system should be verifiable in other words you and me should be able to verify for ourselves that the system that we're using is designed in a fair way we shouldn't just have to trust someone promising us that it's fair so let's see how cathy and a team compare the current system with bitcoin for those four factors the first assurance is the value should be exchanged globally and freely however centralized parties determine the eligibility of participants and control the flow of money while controlling the flow of money can protect the financial system from malicious activity who defines malicious activity so the point here is that banks and sometimes governments they decide who can send and receive money and who can't this is great to be fair if your government has your best interest in mind and call me naive but i think to be fair most governments do the problem is there are some governments in the world that are corrupt they don't have the best interests in mind of their citizens and this is where we have a problem with bitcoin however users can send any amount of value any time to anyone anywhere and users are simply defined by their bitcoin address which is kind of like your bank account number users are not defined by their name their location or any other personal information so we're starting with a pretty contentious one here essentially what it comes down to is two questions number one do you think your government or your bank should have the power to turn off access to your money there's no right or wrong answer here either i completely get both sides of the argument your money is yours nobody should be able to touch it but if your money can't be touched neither can the money of criminals and that's not good for society to tell you the truth and you might actually be surprised by this but bitcoin is terrible criminal money in its earliest days bitcoin was used on the dark web to buy drugs and so it still carries that association today but more recent studies have found that a mere 0.5 of bitcoin transactions are for illicit purposes so bitcoin has this spreadsheet that everyone in the world can see and you can see every transaction ever made in its entire history you can't see people's names but you can see their bitcoin address with a bit of computer learning it doesn't take governments too much effort to get a decent idea of who owns which addresses so any criminal who is using bitcoin a publicly visible spreadsheet to break the law they're a categorical the truth is that cash physical money is a far more effective and private way for criminals to circumvent the law the second question is do you think there are certain governments worldwide that maybe you don't trust to only take money out of the hands of criminals are there certain governments who might use their powers to stop people accessing their money not because they've broken laws but because they're going against the government in these cases the fact that bitcoin can be exchanged globally and freely is a positive for people who are unfortunate enough to be in those countries and pass is the first assurance that cathy's team have outlined the second assurance is that wealth should be protected and owned wholly cathy's team highlights that in the traditional system participants rely on a local enforcer to grant property rights and protect property whereas with bitcoin it has an embedded independent property system or another way of saying that with bitcoin whoever holds the private key which is essentially a password owns the bitcoin so in the traditional system you're relying on your government and local authorities to keep records of you let's say owning some land whereas with bitcoin the responsibility is on you to keep your password safe meaning nobody else can touch your bitcoin so i'll tell you the truth here i'm fortunate enough to live in a country where i don't think my government is going to take my possessions away from me anytime soon as a result this point doesn't really resonate with me so much and it may not resonate with you so much either but then again we should try to imagine we're less fortunate we live in a country where the government may confiscate our wealth and then imagine if we would still think the same way in 2016 india scrapped 500 and 1 000 rupee banknotes overnight in 2019 the hong kong and shanghai banking corporation seized the funds of individuals affiliated with the hong kong protests even when governments aren't directly confiscating money we see examples like venezuela whose inflation rate rose to 10 million percent in 2018 so even though i don't personally feel like i need to control my own wealth so i know that it won't be confiscated there are clear examples worldwide of people who would benefit from this the third assurance is that the rules should be enforced reliably and predictably with kathy's team citing that in the traditional system centrally controlled institutions can enforce and change rules arbitrarily and this can lead to some pretty serious problems for example if a central bank mismanages its country's money supply the money can lose purchasing power through inflation or even hyperinflation as we saw before with venezuela in fact in the last century three monetary policy changes cascaded cutting the purchasing power of almost half of the world's currencies by 50 percent this chart shows us the share of countries whose currency has lost more than half of its value in just a five-year period as we can see the number of countries undergoing hyper inflation over the past 50 years has been higher than any period before and there are serious fears that the current situation worldwide could lead to even more examples kathy's team highlights that bitcoin has rules which are enforced reliably and predictably by incorporating a unique system of checks and balances to maintain integrity for example we can see on this chart bitcoin's future supply which is forever capped at 21 million this is the maximum number of bitcoin which can ever exist this is obviously in contrast to traditional currencies which can be printed at will in fact remarkably estimates are the 22 of the circulating us dollars were printed in 2020 alone so bitcoin has rules which are going to be enforced reliably and we can all find out ahead of time what they are because they're written in the code depending what you want though that's not necessarily the best thing either i mean if central banks worldwide hadn't been able to print money and get it in the hands of people who needed it this year 2020 would have been a much greater disaster whether too much money was printed or not and where some of that money went is another matter but money was certainly needed the point here isn't that bitcoin is competing with regular money though because in my opinion it's not it's competing with things like gold investments which thrive in times when central banks are printing money because they are limited in supply proponents of bitcoin highlight the bitcoin is mathematically limited at 21 million while gold is still being mined albeit at a pretty slow inflation rate meaning the bitcoin is more scarce than gold and of course it's true bitcoin is limited by math so it is more scarce than gold however there's been a slightly worrying trend over the course of 2020.
the correlation between bitcoin and the stock market has been rising while the correlation between bitcoin and gold has been falling what does that mean to me it means the bitcoin today has not been around for long enough to have the same safe haven status the gold does even though it does exhibit many of the same properties instead it's viewed today as more of a risky asset it will be interesting though to see if this changes over time the fourth assurance is the integrity of the system should be verifiable centrally controlled institutions lack transparency and auditability little transparency suggests that institutions have no incentive to be accountable in a more consumer-friendly regime participants would be able to audit and verify the integrity of the system bitcoin however embeds native verification tools so as we know anything that happens with bitcoin is shared on the spreadsheet that anyone in the world can access bitcoin also follows rules according to its code which is openly available for anyone to see both of those mean the bitcoin is fully transparent everyone is treated equally and the rules are consistently followed so now that we understand what bitcoin is and how it compares to the traditional monetary system i have to say i think bitcoin has some major flaws the fact that it's so difficult for many people to use is a big problem the violent up and down volatile price swings they put many people off the fact that it's slow and clunky to use is not good either i could sit here and say that bitcoin is perfect money i could say the bitcoin is trash but the truth is neither of those is right bitcoin is entirely unique and that it's the first currency native to the internet instead of a single country it isn't likely to replace any traditional currencies not in my opinion at least but it looks very similar in many ways to something like gold and it even has a few advantages that gold doesn't have such as being able to carry it across borders by simply being able to remember a string of digits so it can't be confiscated off you of course it also has some major disadvantages compared to gold as well but the fact that bitcoin is so difficult to pin down to a neat easy description is because we've never seen anything quite like it before and that's what makes it so interesting so i'm going to be recording a part two for this video shortly where we're gonna explore bitcoin from an investment perspective we're gonna be looking at the concrete numbers behind bitcoin and exploring how it fits into a portfolio based on maths and science not rumors hunches or anything like that just maths and science if you want to make sure that you don't miss that hit the subscribe button now if you haven't already click up here to check out another video and of course simply thank you for watching
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