저자: TomHeavey—출연자없음,캐시우드분석영상 · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드(ARK Invest)의 투자 전략을 분석한 영상으로, 결론적으로 장기 혁신 투자 접근은 유망하나 2014년 이후 강세장만 겪어 하락장 검증은 부족하다는 입장이다. 캐시 우드 성과: ARK Invest ETF는 2014년 출시 이후 연평균 약 30%대 수익을 기록했다고 언급. 테슬라 목표가 4,000달러(주식분할 전 기준)를 공개적으로 주장해 화제가 됐고, 이후 주가는 조정 후에도 분할 조정 기준 약 2,000달러 수준으로 크게 올랐다고 설명. 투자 철학: 기존 섹터 기반이 아닌 혁신 플랫폼(로보틱스, 유전체, 자율주행, 핀테크, 인터넷 등) 기준으로 기업을 선별. 테슬라를 자동차 제조사가 아닌 AI 칩·자율주행 택시 플랫폼 기업으로 봐야 한다는 논리이며, 자율주행 택시 모델의 매출총이익률(약 80%)을 자동차 제조(20~30%)와 비교. 전략 1 — 기술 도입 곡선 장기 보유: ARK는 기술 도입을 네 단계로 설명(초기 정체, 시장 기대 하락, 대중 확산, 지속 진화/차별화). 시장은 단기 영향을 과대평가하고 장기 파괴력은 과소평가한다는 점을 강조. 단기 매매는 어렵다며 장기 보유 필요성 강조. 전략 2 — 유전체 혁명 관련 종목 집중: ARK 상위 10개 보유 종목 중 5개(Invitae, CRISPR Therapeutics, Illumina, Compugen, Editas Medicine)가 유전자 관련 기업. 테슬라가 전체 보유 비중 약 8%로 1위, 이어 Invitae, Square, CRISPR Therapeutics, Roku, 2U, Illumina, Zillow, Compugen, Editas 순. 전략 3 — 분산 투자: 빅테크(애플, 아마존, 페이스북 등)도 여러 ETF에 소량 편입. ETF당 보유 종목 39~49개로 분산도가 높고, 고위험 종목 중 소수만 성공해도 전체 수익이 가능하다는 구조 설명. 리스크: 2014년 이후 강세장만 경험해 장기 하락장에서의 성과는 미검증. 고위험 종목 비중이 높아 변동성 큼. 진행자는 투자 자문이 아니라고 명시. 결론: 혁신 중심의 장기 관점과 분산 전략은 매력적이나, 완전한 시장 사이클을 거친 뒤 평가해야 한다는 신중한 입장.
다듬은 글
so kathy wood is one of the most successful investors over the past six years her fund the arc invest etf has well it's hammered nearly every competitor since its launch in 2014 somehow offering investors a ridiculous yearly return of nearly 30 and i mean kathy herself she's consistently made headlines for her boldly bullish predictions about the tesla share price in fact while tesla was under 200 per share she was there calling for a 4 000 share price everyone called her crazy but even today after some volatile swings tesla the share price is just under 400 and when we adjust because they recently split the stock in five it comes out to nearly two thousand dollars per share around ten times the price when she was making headlines for her prediction so with kathy's unique approach to investing and her somewhat incredible performance over the past six years but it's fair to say she's ruffled a few feathers in the traditional world of investing and in this video we're going to be looking at three lessons that she implements with her investing which have contributed to her somewhat incredible performance and we're gonna take a look into the specific companies which she's been investing into hopefully we can pick up a few tips of her now before i break down her investing strategies i do want to make something very clear firstly i'm not a financial advisor and this isn't financial advice like i always say i'm just a regular guy researching this stuff really to get my own head around things and then i'm just sharing that research with you the other thing we do have to consider is that the arc etfs kathy's funds well they launched in 2014 and that was during a bull market so while we've had a pretty rough year so far we haven't seen how these funds would perform in a sustained market downturn so let's bear that in mind before we get carried away for me what i do really like about the companies that kathy invests into though is that they're all based on innovation basically seeing how the world is today imagining how it will change over the coming years and then betting on the companies who are best placed to carry out that change even though the stock market will of course have ups and downs innovation is something that is never going to stop and the companies who then carry out such innovation should in theory be profitable in the long run i mean there will be some ups and downs like i say but if you're looking on a long term horizon this is how i tend to think and if you want proof of this look no further than the most valuable companies in the world today they're all based on technology and the internet and they've come really from virtually nowhere to where they are today and most in just the last couple of decades so let's look at cathy's approach to investing she's launched four etfs back in 2014 we have the arc invest etf and this is the most general of all of them and it really covers a variety of things including robotics genetics and autonomous vehicles then you have the etfs which are more specific to individual niches such as the autonomous technology and robotics etf the arc next generation internet etf the genomic revolution etf and last year a fifth etf was launched focusing on fintech the arc fintech innovation etf the premise behind these etfs was to identify companies that are overlooked by traditional sector-based strategies so essentially the way the traditional investors work is that they look at things based on sectors so for example you have car manufacturers historically they just produce and they sell cars i mean it's pretty simple they have a certain cost per car they make and they have a certain profit per car they sell if they sell more cars they make more money if they sell fewer cars they should make less money however what happens when technology begins to enter into the car industry and we have companies like tesla who aren't really just building cars anymore they're also building an autonomous taxi service and on top of you know what in fact let's just hand it over to kathy and she's going to explain it a hell of a lot better than i ever could technology is seeping into every sector so it's blurring the lines between and among sectors and the the five innovation platforms that we're focused on they're converging so we need analysts very comfortable with technology even in the healthcare field and the industrial field and we need them to their responsibilities to be broken out by innovation platform that platforms that cut across economic sectors so a stock like tesla now being analyzed in the traditional world by auto analysts which are analysts focusing on a very mature industry they're value analysts right so price to book dividend yield all of those metrics are important to them are going to find it difficult to to analyze a company that is not just an auto manufacturer but also a an artificial intelligence chip designer and an autonomous taxi platform provider which is a transportation as a service so we've got three analysts focused and collaborating on understanding how tesla is going to evolve during the next few years sam korres who does our robotics work autonomous vehicles are going to be robots he also does our energy storage work so he's very comfortable with battery technology probably i would say he's the financial industries expert on battery technology we have james wang who's focused on artificial intelligence he came out of nvidia which is the artificial intelligence chip company so he spent nine years there so great expertise and understands how significant tesla's latest chip design artificial intelligence chip design is pushing it four years ahead of anything that nvidia is doing right now and then we have tasha keeney who is who is using their inputs and pulling together our autonomous taxi network model and the autonomous taxi network model is a very profitable model the gross margins there are in the 80 percent range the gross margins for auto manufacturers are in the 20 to 30 percent range night and day so you need a completely different kind of analyst and a different way of thinking about the world no longer sectors but platforms so as kathy describes it technology is really blurring the lines between sectors and making it harder and harder to say a company fits neatly into just one sector however when it comes to technology and innovation these things do not happen overnight and that's why the first strategy the cafe uses is to focus on the adoption curve of technology and be willing to hold the company for a long time in order to see results now when it comes to investing for the long term well this is something i am completely in agreement with for the absolute professionals i think short-term investing is difficult enough for them for people like us short-term investing i think is just a fun way to lose your money in some ways like they say it's about time in the market not timing the market and that means really holding for the long term but what do we mean when we say about the technology adoption curve well this is really interesting essentially arc has identified four key phases in technology adoption phase one is the long flat adoption curve during this phase a lack of understanding is the main cause behind the delay in the acceptance of innovation phase two is the decline before mass market acceptance in other words the investments actually drop in value before they grow arc is attributing this to the market's tendency to overestimate the impact of short-term events and to underestimate the long-term trend of disruption so this is something i've spoken about with you numerous times in the past how people really tend to they overestimate the short-term impact the technology is going to have but they also underestimate the long-term impact i mean if you want an example just look at people's expectations in 1999 about how the internet would change the world in a few short years obviously it took a lot longer than this meaning they overestimated the short-term impact on the flip side though in the years after the initial hype i mean i really doubt that many people would have expected it to change our lives as much as it has today people overestimate the short term and they underestimate the long term phase three is an ever expanding market truly innovative companies can reach a mass market and grow their market share beyond any wall street projections phase four is continued evolution and differentiation as companies mature they can in turn be disrupted themselves if they don't reinvest in the future so by looking for companies that don't neatly fit into any one sector arc has portfolios that look kind of odd to most traditional investors but that is done intentionally as they believe the biggest opportunity exists when a company spans numerous sectors i mean for example whatever you may think of tesla as a company specifically i think it should be clear that any company building autonomous vehicles that can rival uber in the future and have interest in developing advanced battery and robotic technology well i would say that that company has a lot more upside potential than a company who just manufactures cars i'd say to be fair the risks are probably higher too hence you see such crazy movements up and down with the likes of tesla but again the potential returns are higher now let's look at the second lesson when studying ark's portfolio and we're going to look at the specific companies that appear most commonly in their investments across those five etfs and i think this is really quite interesting as it gives us an insight into the individual companies and allows us if we wish to go and research those individual companies so the author of this article has pulled data from all five of ark's etfs to identify the top 10 holdings perhaps unsurprisingly considering tesla's incredible run over the past couple of years it ranks in number one position with a total of eight percent of their holdings second is inverti a company specializing in genetic testing third is square a payments and financial services company fourth is crispr therapeutics who are focused on gene modification fifth is roku a company offering a variety of products in the field of tv entertainment sixth is 2u an online education platform seventh is illumina one of the leaders in dna sequencing eighth is zillow group a real estate listing and investing platform ninth is compugen a drug discovery and development company and finally in number 10 is editas medicine a leading gene editing company focused on developing crispr medicines as noted an important recurring theme in this top 10 is the genomic revolution in other words companies that are focused on things like the discovery of influential genes or editing those genes once found in fact five of the top ten companies inverted crispr therapeutics illumina compugen and editas medicine are focused on exactly this and it's not exactly every day that you see a portfolio where five of the top 10 companies are focused on genes and i find this really particularly interesting because when i listen to how kathy talks about formulating her investing thesis which is really by analyzing when the cost of a technology has dropped to the point where it could be on the precipice of going mainstream well for me that really resonates with me so when i see her investing so heavily in gene related companies i take that as a pretty good indication that people who are simply so much smarter than myself are willing to put their money where their mouth is and remember people tend to overestimate the short term and underestimate the long-term impact when it comes to technology so with this when crispr for example was first used and shared with the world my research on it is that people were incredibly excited and cautious about how it was going to change the world in just a small number of years many years later it's clear that people overestimated the short-term impact well if we think about it logically there would come a time many years after its first use where the costs would drop to the point where it truly can achieve mainstream adoption and if we follow the classic rule well in the years leading up to this mainstream adoption people would naturally underestimate it now i'm not a geneticist and there's there's really no benefit of me sitting here and quoting an article i found online on the topic of gene editing that i barely even understand to myself there's no point to you but what i think is much more interesting is when you see people who have been right about things in the past as kathy has and she's working with some top geneticists and those geneticists are telling her that the time is right to invest now i think that's i think that's fascinating and that's why i'm bringing you this video as i think to tell you the truth kathy and the team at arc i think are some of the smartest investors around and of course like i said at the beginning they haven't been through a full up and down cycle so we don't know how that would play out but i do still think these guys are some of the best investors around at the moment now let's take a look at the third lesson the author of this article basically decided to look at the stocks which appear the most across the five arc etfs so the list before was the top 10 investments based on the amounts invested this time it's simply a case does a stock appear in one two three four or five of their etfs and what that brings us to is this list what i find really interesting here is that there are some big names such as apple amazon and facebook even though they may represent smaller portions of the portfolios than the likes of tesla or square it's interesting that kathy and the team arc are not overlooking the biggest companies around clearly she thinks that even the largest companies are capable of innovating and growing further and on top of this the typical number of holdings in arc etfs are between 39 and 49 now that is a very good level of diversification which of course i think is a key factor but especially really if the largest investments are into more risky companies i mean when we look at something like gene identification and gene editing for example i think it's fair to say that there is a very high degree of risk now of course if those companies are successful the potential profits could be huge but through diversification she isn't just relying on one company even if most of them are not successful she probably only really needs one of them to work out to get a great overall return i'd love to know what your thoughts are though let me know what you think about kathy's approach in the comments section do you think that it's a potential winning long-term approach or do you think we have to see a full cycle to really judge it before you go don't forget to check out this video up here and of course just thank you for watching
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