저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드는 금리 급등 시 밸류에이션 조정이 올 수 있다고 인정하면서도, 장기 성장 궤적을 믿고 조정을 기회로 활용하겠다는 입장이다. 금리와 밸류에이션: 미국 장기금리가 1년 내 최고치를 찍은 상황에서 금리가 급등하면 ARK 포트폴리오가 밸류에이션 리셋의 주요 대상이 될 수 있다고 봄. S&P500 PER은 대체로 20~25배에서 고점을 형성했고, 이는 정상화된 명목 GDP 성장률(4~5%)의 역수와 연관된다고 설명. 다만 장기 성장률은 약 3%로 보며, 이 경우 PER 33배가 새로운 고점이 될 수 있다는 논리를 제시. 영상 진행자는 현재 PER 38배가 기존 상단을 넘어 조정 가능성을 시사한다고 해석. 성장주 밸류에이션 논리: ARK가 투자하는 파괴적 기술은 초기에 수익성이 낮아 PER이 높게 보이지만, 기술이 확산되면 이익이 급성장해 현재 멀티플에 성장해 들어갈 것이라고 주장. 기술 확산 타이밍은 Wright's Law(누적 생산량 두 배마다 비용이 일정 비율 하락)로 판단한다고 설명. 조정 대응 전략: 강세장에서는 보유 종목을 52개로 늘려 분산하고, 약세장(예: 작년 저점 33개)에서는 손실 종목을 매도해 세금 이익을 확보하며 고확신 종목으로 이동. 이동 대상으로 리제네론, 노바티스 등 대형 바이오를 제시하며 이를 사실상 현금 성격의 방어 자산으로 활용한다고 설명. 이들 기업은 유전체 혁명, AI, 유전자 치료에 투자 중이라 가치 재평가 여지가 있다고 봄. 시장 타이밍 비판: 진행자는 1997~2020년 장기 보유 대비 최고 수익일을 놓치면 수익률이 크게 떨어진다며 시장 타이밍과 현금 대피를 비판. 강세장 재진입 타이밍이 매도 타이밍보다 중요하다는 연구와 2016년 DALBAR 연구를 인용. 결론적으로 분산 투자를 권장하고 캐시 우드의 분산 확대 행보를 예시로 듦. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드는 단기 조정 가능성을 인정하나 장기적으로 파괴적 혁신 기업들의 성장을 확신하며, 조정기를 고확신 종목 매수 기회로 활용하겠다는 입장.
다듬은 글
so kathy wood and ark's funds have crashed it's not just them though the nasdaq has just suffered its worst day since october as part of an overall crash in the stock market as an investor moments like this can be scary but we know that as investors we need to think long term as warren buffett says his favorite holding period for an investment is forever that's why in this video we're going to be looking at the long term prospects for arc we're going to be talking about how to prepare in case there is another crash and we're going to be listening to kathy sharing her thoughts on market crashes like these just quickly i am not a financial advisor nor is this financial advice okay so let's get straight into it and i won't make you wait let's just jump straight into the first clip it seems undeniable to me though that you must be thinking about the impact of higher rates on the kinds of stocks that have been tried and true winners for you all throughout whether it's the signature fund the fintech innovation fund and even other areas of the etfs that you have are you worried that as rates go up those stocks could come down uh well i i do believe if rates were to take a sharp turn up that we would we would see a valuation reset and our portfolios would uh would be prime candidates for that valuation reset of course now one of the things that i found interesting over the last over the last really 20 years is that the the s p's p e ratio tends to peak out in the 20 to 25 times range of the forward forward earnings and i think the reason for that is most portfolio managers and maybe quantitative research researchers are looking at normalized nominal gdp growth in the four to five percent range which is where long-term interest rates should be normalized we actually think normalized gdp growth is probably closer to three now if you think uh and and that's where long-term interest rates should stabilize if you think of 20 to 25 times uh that's one over four to five percent growth so it's the inverse of the growth rate the nominal gdp growth and that's where it seemed to be peaking out we think there's actually longer term i agree with you scott there will be a valuation reset there will be fear i'm sure and we will use it to our benefit concentrating our portfolio to our highest conviction names uh but i think longer term especially given the the powerful growth trajectories that the five innovation platforms around which we revolve all of our research uh that that those trajectories are so powerful uh that these multiples that they these companies are going to grow into their multiples a lot faster than most uh investors are now expecting and so that's a source of confidence for us so there are a few important things we should listen to here firstly kathy talks about how rising interest rates could lead to a drop in the market well with long-term u.s interest rates recently hitting their highest value in a year this is not a hypothetical for the future this is something we have to consider now second kathy highlights of the p e ratio for the american stock market usually tops out at around 25 but also hints that it could find a new top of 33 this time why 33 well because 33 is the inverse of the three percent growth that she talked about in that clip now to give us some context let's put up a chart to show us the historic ratio for the market now let's add a line to show where 25 is and another for 33.
so the 25 line is where the market usually tops out as we can see whenever our chart has crossed this line in the past it has usually fallen back below soon after today the p e ratio sits at a very high 38 above both of our lines and kathy says this can be seen as an indicator the stock market today is due a drop however kathy isn't overly concerned about this because she believes that the company she has invested into will grow into their multiples a lot faster than most people think but what exactly does that mean well kathy and arc invest into disruptive technology and disruptive technology it often starts out as promising but isn't particularly profitable in the early years and as a result when you look at metrics like the p e ratio what you often find is that these companies do appear overvalued but here's the thing when technology goes from promising to actually disrupting that is when the earnings begin to grow very quickly therefore kathy believes that the company she has invested into because they are on the precipice of disruption today even though they might appear overvalued compared to how much money they're making today that could all change very quickly as their profits begin to grow rapidly and they catch up with their valuations hence she describes it as growing into their multiples but how does kathy know these technologies are about to gain adoption well kathy uses wright's law to time her investments wright's law says that for every cumulative doubling of units produced costs will fall by a constant percentage or said in terms we can all understand as we produce more of something such as equipment to map out our genes it gets cheaper to produce that equipment so kathy's goal is to invest when the technology has dropped to a price where it is on the verge of disruption and so rapid growth in the coming years is now possible having said all of that though the market has crashed and so have arcs investments so the question is how does kathy prepare in case there is another crash if she thinks there is another crash coming what does she do next so so my question plays off what scott just asked you do you take into account or do you have any type of forecast in terms of rates and adjust the portfolio to that forecast or do you keep cash there and etfs are kind of interesting in terms of the level of cash you're allowed to keep or not keep um so so how do you do it so rates right now they're moving up do you say okay we may be in a little trouble here with this valuation reset they're going to jump up another whatever up to you know maybe two percent do you get in front of it or do you just take it as it comes no we we use it actually uh and so what we've been doing for the last six months is expanding the number of names in our portfolio and we do that as a bull market extends because in some ways it's a tax efficient strategy what we will do during a correction especially a severe correction like the prices presented we will sell names in which which are creating losses now because again we've bought them we've diversified and bought them more recently sell those names creating losses to buy our highest conviction names some of the names we've been moving into you'll notice uh are names like some of the bigger biotech names uh regeneron novartis uh cicada and what we will do during and we we think of them as cash-like but there's also a reason an investment reason we are moving into them uh ironically we think they're deep value names because these companies the ones we are choosing are they are able to use the convergence of technologies that is taking place today in the genomic revolution so dna sequencing artificial intelligence once again and gene therapies new technologies new ways of doing things they are investing aggressively now they have to because they've lost a lot of their pipelines or will soon do so and we think the returns on investment in the biotech space and i'm talking big biotechs if they're doing this correctly could move from the high single digits today back into the golden age of healthcare so in the 80s we saw 20 to 30 percent so we're using them as cash-like instruments in in some some way because we will move back into our pure play names uh if we get into a severe correction but we also see the investment merit in these names they're just not pure play names so we we use corrections toggling back and forth and so right now our flagship our flagship portfolio has roughly 52 names in it at the low point last year it was as low as 33 i believe so again some really interesting points here as the bull market grows kathy diversifies across more and more companies in the bottom of the market last march they held just 33 stocks today though they hold as many as 52.
and i mean part of the reason they do this is for the tax benefits so if the market crashes they can sell some of these newly purchased shares at a loss which is going to bring down their tax liability and it balances out some of the profits they've made but on top of that they have begun investing into biotech companies like regeneron and novartis because they see these companies as deep value stocks so while the stock market has discounted these names kathy notes that today these companies are investing heavily into the important technologies that she focuses on like gene editing and artificial intelligence but what's really interesting here is that she describes these companies as cash like holdings so in a bull market kathy basically believes that these companies can continue growing because they are investing in gene editing and ai but in a bear market they almost act like cash because the steady nature of those companies means they aren't likely to crash as much as other stocks so what do we think of all of this well it's obvious to say that kathy has already forgotten more about investing than i will ever know so i think it's far more honest and more valuable for you if i really just defer to her knowledge on this all i will personally add is that some people instead choose to cash out of their stocks and they sit on the sidelines with that cash instead of diversifying for me i'm not really a fan of that strategy did you know for example if you invested between 1997 and 2020 you would have made a 334 return if you simply did nothing and held throughout if you missed just the top 10 days you still made a profit but this time it was just 124 so you lost nearly two-thirds of your potential profit and that's if you just missed 10 days out of a 23-year window if you missed the 20 best days your return dropped to 38 and if you missed the 30 best days you actually lost 7 okay so trying to time the market and sitting in cash it's generally a bad idea but you probably already know that so here's something that you might not know researchers carried out a study and they found it was more important to correctly forecast the bull markets than to correctly forecast the bear markets in other words if you want to try to time the market knowing when to sell as some people are doing right now is much less important than knowing when to buy back in so if you are going to sell ask yourself honestly do you think you can also time the buying back in correctly too and according to the 2016 dalbar study the average person like you or me when we try to time the market we are much worse than the institutional investors who by the way also suck at it again this just backs up the idea that we should not be trying to time the market as an investor what we're all trying to do is just ignore our emotions and act as a robot would forget how we feel and simply do what makes sense according to the maths right well i can tell you the math says that trying to time the market is nearly always a bad idea the math says that the solution is instead to simply diversify more that means not cashing out but spreading your money between more companies more countries and more asset classes and we can see this is exactly what kathy is doing today she's gone from 33 stocks to just over 50 in the space of a year for me personally i try to go with a mathematical approach if i can which means diversifying and then i just try not to look at my portfolio too many times per day i hope this video helps in these somewhat crazy times
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