Ray Dalio Thinks Bonds are Risky

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결론: 레이 달리오는 일반 물가보다 자산 인플레이션과 미국 국채 수급 문제로 주식시장이 버블 상태라고 본다. [핵심 주장: 인플레이션의 종류] 달리오는 주택·식료품 같은 일반 수요-공급형 인플레이션보다 금융자산 인플레이션과 통화 인플레이션을 더 우려한다. 금융자산에 약 GDP의 10%가 저장되어 있어 이것이 풀리면 수요가 크게 늘 수 있다고 본다. [근거: 국채 수급과 금리] 세계 채권 보유자들이 미국채를 과다 보유(과체중)하고 있고, 실질금리가 마이너스인 상태에서 이들이 채권을 대거 매도할 가능성이 있다고 본다. 채권 매도가 나오면 금리 상승 압력이 생기고, 이를 막기 위해 연준이 채권을 사들이며 통화 인플레이션이 발생할 수 있다고 본다. 중국 등 다른 자본시장의 매력이 커지는 시점이라는 점도 수급 악화 요인으로 꼽았다. [연준 정책 전망] 연준은 테이퍼링(양적완화 축소)이나 긴축을 하기 어렵고, 오히려 금리 상승을 막기 위해 자산을 더 사야 할 수 있다고 본다. 과거 시사만으로도 시장이 크게 반응했기 때문에 긴축을 많이 할 수 없다는 입장이다. [종목·자산별 방향] 특정 개별 종목이나 지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 목표는 언급되지 않았다. 미국 주식시장은 금융자산 인플레이션과 유동성에 따른 버블 형성 중이라는 평가(하락 리스크 시사)다. [조건·리스크] 유동성이 풍부하고 실질금리가 마이너스인 환경에서 대출·부채 확대가 버블을 키운다고 지적한다. 연준이 긴축하면 큰 부정적 영향이 생길 수 있다고 본다. [달러 전망] 미국이 채권을 대량 발행·매입하면서 달러 가치가 다른 통화 대비 하락할 것으로 전망한다. 특히 아시아 통화 대비 달러 약세를 예상한다. 단기적으로는 미국 성장이 달러를 강하게 할 수 있다는 반대 논리도 인정한다. [출연자 전망] 달리오는 장기 부채 사이클 말기에 있으며, 1970년대 초와 유사한 상황이라고 본다. 진행자는 캐시 우드의 디플레이션 전망을 소개하며 양측 시각을 모두 보라고 권한다.

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01. legendary investor ray dalio recently shared why he believes the stock market today is in a growing bubble why well it relates to inflation but not the typical kind that you might be thinking of not when you go to the store and it costs more to buy groceries there is a different kind of inflation that ray dalio fears so in this video we're going to hear why dalio is fearful why he thinks the market is a bubble and i'll break down exactly what this means for us investors hi and welcome back my name is tom heavy i hope you're doing well so i'm not gonna make you wait instead let's just jump straight into this first clip with ray there are different kinds of inflation um i'm not particularly worried about the classic supply you know demand pressing up against supply although we'll find out soon because there's something like 10 percent of gdp stored in financial assets that's going to be coming out and so it's likely that there's going to be a big pickup in demand and that will probably raise uh prices uh significantly and it also depends how you count for inflation because like housing prices housing prices themselves are going up a lot but rental prices are going down a lot the big thing big things i think are um and if you went to a three percent inflation rate or or some bounce i you know that that's not one of those things that gets me very nervous very excited the real issue is that we have a supply demand issue of uh bonds because we're going to have to sell a lot of bonds to those um in the world who own bond inventories and they have uh very low interest rates on negative real interest rates and they're overweighted in u.s bonds and they're gonna have to buy a lot more and um that is also coming at a time when chinese capital markets other capital markets are becoming more attractive that creates a supply demand issue that can create a monetary inflation because um there will not be enough demand to buy those bonds and that means that it's likely that the federal reserve will not be able to taper or cut back and might actually have to increase to prevent interest rates from going up and that's a classic monetary inflation so that's my bigger concern um than uh just the the spur i think for most of the world the real question is what are interest rates relative to inflation and also what is happening with all this liquidity because there's a huge amount of liquidity and negative real interest rates and that means that it pays not to own any debt instruments that pays not to own cash certainly not cash where you get no interest rate in an environment like larry says of some amount of significant inflation i think it'll be let's say in the vicinity of over three percent so you get taxed at that rate in terms of buying power and so when i look at that i think you're going to see the continued inflation in in in other assets and it pays to borrow a lot i know like in to borrow houses right now i mean to buy i'm seeing interest only loans being made when there's basically no interest rate in other words you don't have to break that pay back your principal anytime soon and you j and the interest rates are so low so there's a lot of money being thrown around that way those are the things that concern me more because you build up a bubble you saw the reaction in the markets when the fed just even hinted at tightening i don't think they can tighten a lot without having a big negative effect so that's what it looks like to me the whole picture of the low real interest rates and then also the worries about the supply demand monetary inflation and also the fed tightening i'm more worried about the inflation in financial assets and what that means for returns and bubbles that are developing because there's a massive amount of liquidity around and it's being thrown around um so that it's you know it's a different difficult environment for those returns to be justified i think we're building kind of a bubble so um i think inflation in financial assets and so on is um is an issue related to liquidity anyway you think about it uh what's happened is the net worth of um of of americans and most people in in developed countries um is higher than it's ever been i mean all of a sudden it was a big boost to net income um but yet production isn't so what you've seen is a lot of people got a lot of money which they're still holding and and they put it into the stock market and everything and interest rates go down and they borrow and that is a dynamic that creates a bubble and that's what i would say is um the main the main issue so if you've been investing the stock market for any period of time and following the news no doubt you'll have seen that most investors are screaming today about their fears of inflation why exactly would inflation be bad for the market well when inflation begins to rise the fed's response is usually to raise interest rates when they do that it changes discount rate calculations for the stock market and if all else is equal it will mean the stock market is going to fall in value but here's the thing dalio is not worried about traditional inflation he's not worried if house prices are going up or if it costs you more to buy a pint of milk at the store he's worried about inflation specifically in the price of financial assets and if we want to narrow in even further we're talking about america's bond market you see in order to raise money the us government like every government worldwide will sell bonds this is essentially them asking to be loaned money in return for an interest rate then they can use this money along with the income they receive from tax to carry out government spending so it's absolutely essential that the u.s government are able to sell their bonds and as dalio describes it when you look at the world and see who holds america's bonds today and what their incentives are he believes that those major investors are likely to sell american bonds in the coming months and years going forwards this would cause interest rates to rise which could have a major impact on the american economy and stock market but of course the fed can't allow this to happen so what's the solution well their only viable solution is to become the buyer of those bonds themselves if someone else sells an american bonds then the fed buys it at least they're balancing things out the problem there though is that the fed only gets the money to buy these bonds in the first place by printing more money now not exactly surprisingly printing so much money is exactly why people are worried about inflation in the first place so the fed are basically stuck between a rock and a hard place if they don't print money they risk america's bond market being affected which would in turn damage the economy if they do print more money though they continue to inflate the supply of cash and spark even more fears of inflation so which path will they choose well the way dalio sees it they will have to buy those bonds which means they have to print more money and so the fears of inflation rising will continue now we're gonna hear dalio's thoughts on the us dollar and why he believes it may struggle versus other currencies you mentioned the dollar i mean i guess one could see there are different scenarios that come out of this i mean the classic scenario for the us growing faster than everybody else sucking in a lot of imports would be that actually the dollar could rise and export problems to the rest of the world that way but i know but ray you just mentioned that uh you potentially see that dollar heading down so is this is there a fundamental threat to the dollar that comes out of this uh yes now the way i mean i'm just dealing with the mechanics you know the way it works is you sell a lot of bonds oh so now who do you sell the bonds to and when i look around and calculate who owns the bonds and uh what they have to buy um and what the incentives of buying uh they're they're bad and in fact you could see dollar selling of bonds what that means is then the federal reserve is in a position of either seeing rates rise because there's not enough demand to meet that in fact if they start selling it would be a very bad situation and that they can't let that happen because that would be very bad for the economy and and markets and all sorts of things so we have to keep in mind where we are we're at the end of a long-term debt cycle and that means that uh the federal reserve will have to do what they did last time which is to buy a lot more to prevent the interest rates from going up that's very non-cyclical it's one of those cases where you know in reserve currencies it's a it's a very dangerous thing now you compare that with alternatives um first best alternatives or other asset classes but also let's say china for example i think the situation that we're in is quite similar to the going from the late seven late 60s into the early 70s when there was a different core inflation rate in the united states versus germany and japan it's different balance of payments situation we're in a basically a balance of payments deficit they're at a balance of payment surplus position that means that um they chronologically are worried about imported inflation and there's favorable capital flows so i think that that's negative for the dollar particularly against asian currencies so while there is some logic to say that the us dollar could get stronger in the coming months as the u.s economy grows versus other countries dalio sits on the other side of the fence he believes that the us printing so much money to buy more bonds will ultimately cause the dollar to fall in value in relation to other currencies now i do want to make something really clear just because ray dalio thinks inflation is inevitable it doesn't mean he's right in recent videos i've featured kathy wood sharing her thoughts and why she thinks deflation is coming not inflation deflation she thinks the exact opposite of dalio and is preparing for a very different outcome now the reason i'm featuring dalio today is because as investors it's important that we hear both side of every story otherwise we'll never develop a truly balanced perspective now i'm interested to know what you think do you think inflation is coming or do you think deflation is the bigger threat let me know your thoughts in the comments below thank you for watching and i will see you again very soon