저자: TomHeavey · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏이 약 97억 달러 규모의 도미니언 에너지 천연가스 파이프라인·저장 자산 인수로 오랜만에 대형 투자에 나섰다는 소식을 분석한 영상이다. 결론은 버핏이 시장을 완전히 낙관하게 된 것은 아니며, 여전히 가치 있는 기회를 찾는 중이라는 것이다. 인수 배경: 버핏의 버크셔 해서웨이가 7월 4일 연휴 기간 발표한 이 거래는 4년 만의 최대 인수다. 현금 40억 달러와 부채 57억 달러 인수가 포함됐다. 버핏의 최근 행보: 항공주 전량 매도, 골드만삭스 지분 축소, 최근 1년간 아마존·RH·크로거 매수 등 개별 종목 중심 매매를 해왔다. 테크 데이터 인수전에서는 아폴로에 밀렸다. 시장 해석: 이번 거래 규모는 버크셔 현금 1370억 달러의 극히 일부라 시장을 공격적으로 낙관한다는 신호로 보기 어렵다. 5월에 버핏은 매력적인 것이 없어 아무것도 하지 않았다고 말했었다. 진행자는 버핏이 가치 기반 투자자이므로 시장 전체보다 개별 가치 기회에 주목한다고 본다. 천연가스 관점: 미국 천연가스 선물이 25년 저점 부근에서 거래되며 에너지 자산이 저평가됐다는 해석이 나온다. 버크셔는 이번 인수로 미국 주간 가스 송전의 18%를 확보하게 된다(현재 8%). 규제로 신규 파이프라인 건설이 어려워져 기존 자산의 가치가 높아질 수 있다는 분석도 제시됐다. 도미니언 측면: 천연가스 사업을 매각하고 풍력·태양광·가스 중심 규제형 유틸리티로 전환한다. 향후 영업이익의 90%가 유틸리티 사업에서 나올 것으로 예상된다. 투자자 조언: 진행자는 개별 종목 직접 투자는 전업 수준의 리서치가 필요하다고 강조한다. 본인은 분산투자 후 주기적 리밸런싱을 선호하며, 주식 100% 투자도 변동성이 크므로 권하지 않는다고 말한다. 리스크: 거래 규모가 크지 않아 버핏의 시장 판단을 단정하기 어렵다. 천연가스 가격 회복 여부와 규제 환경 변화가 변수다.
다듬은 글
so after a break for major purchases in recent months Warren Buffett is back to his old tricks as he announced the end of his recent droughts with a ten billion dollar bet on energy to be specific Buffett's company Berkshire Hathaway broke its silence at the end of a holiday weekend with his biggest acquisition in more than four years the nine point seven billion dollar deal for Dominion Energy's natural gas pipeline and storage assets signaled to the market the Buffett is willing to pounce despite his cautious tone in May okay so we're gonna be taking a look into the details we know about Buffett's biggest deal in over four years and most importantly what this means for us by analyzing as best we can what Warren Buffett is thinking about the stock market today so let's get straight into it so while Americans were celebrating the fourth of July weekend Buffett was lining up this deal if you're American by the way a happy belated fourth of July weekend to you I hope it was a really good weekend for everyone to some people this purchase from Buffett may have come as a surprise in fact with his recent sale of all airline companies and trimming certain positions in his portfolio I have to hold my hands up and admit I wasn't expecting to see a major investment like this so soon afterwards and I'm not the only one either as noted his inability to make a major acquisition recently has drawn scrutiny from his critics who have argued the buffer has lost his ability to pull off the game-changing transactions that helped Volt Berkshire into the ranks and the most valuable US public companies now let me jump in for a second this does make for good reading but the idea that Buffett has lost the ability to pull off game-changing transactions I mean come on but still the deal to buy substantially all of the minion Energy's natural gas transmission and storage assets for four billion dollars along with the assumption of 5.7 billion dollars in debt shows that Buffett is willing to put his money to work with Buffett quoted as saying we are very proud to be adding such a great portfolio of natural gas assets to our already strong energy business as Darin a portfolio manager at Chevy or value manor notes he's inspired to see that given Buffett is bearish he's still willing to make acquisitions where he thinks it makes sense and where it meets Berkshires hurdle points okay so there are a few points to unpick here the first is that we really shouldn't be surprised as we know buffett has built up a reputation as an investor who thrives during the bad times he is renowned for his ability to swoop in during difficult economic times and invest into companies the he believes have dropped below their intrinsic value however in a way the surprise comes from his lack of activity during the previous market crash in March many of us investors myself included were expecting to see him take this as an opportunity to swoop in as usual and when he didn't this is when we began to question if he views the market very differently today to how he did in 2008 and in previous crashes when he was famously investing in spite of so much fear in the market so is this recent purchase an indication the Buffett's opinion on the market has changed does this now mean the buffett is bullish well unless you are Warren Buffett you really can't know what he's thinking but as I often tell you my favorite way of gauging the market is to look at the world's best investors people like Warren Buffett's and to analyze their actions remember it's his actions not his words that we're paying close attention to well as noted here the announcement the berkshire was spending ten billion dollars on the dominion acquisition may sound massive but it's just a tiny fraction of the more than 137 billion dollars in cash that berkshire hathaway had on his balance sheets at the end of the first quarter in fact Berkshire is only paying four billion dollars in cash to the Dominion assets Buffett is also taking on nearly six billion dollars in debt so this deal hardly qualifies as the elephant-sized acquisition the Buffett has been talking about wanting to do for more than a year now the article goes on to notes that the company's last major deal was the purchase of aerospace parts maker precision Castparts for 37 billion dollars in 2015 so here's the thing most articles you read have their own bias and put their own spin on things but I try to ignore that as best I can and break down the fact for you I mean everyone has bias I'm certainly not perfect but I do my absolute best to try to put that to one side and this takes a fair amount of time to research and put these videos together so if you wouldn't mind taking a moment to smash the like button I would really appreciate it so what are the facts here well this is Buffett's first major acquisition since 2015 we can't overlook this is the first major deal he's done in nearly five years that is obviously a bullish sign however we also can't ignore this deal of 10 billion dollars with only four billion paid in cash is a very small proportion of the cash pile the Buffett is sitting on so it would be wrong to blow this out of proportion and conclude that he has suddenly become bullish on the markets in fact if we go back to Buffett's comments in May the picture begins to become a bit clearer as he said at the time we have not done anything because we don't see anything that's attractive to do if we really liked what we were seeing we would do it and that will happen someday now remember Buffett is a value investor he's looking for good value opportunities in the markets as a result in many ways he isn't actually too bothered what the overall market is doing but here's the thing when companies become overvalued at the end of a bull markets true value is virtually non-existent and that's why Buffett isn't investing whereas when companies become undervalued at the bottom of the bear market many companies actually begin to trade at a value below what Buffett would consider their true or intrinsic value in other words what the market is doing is mostly not relevant it's only really relevant in that good opportunities are more likely to be found in the worst times and less likely to be found in the best times so I will go back to Darren Pollock's quote from earlier where he said buffett is still willing to make acquisitions where he thinks it makes sense and where it meets Berkshires hurdle points as Buffett is a committed value investor and has outlined his unchanging investing philosophy over the course of many years we know that he must see value with this investment well we can't know for certain what he thinks about the markets again nobody except Warren Buffett knows Warren Buffett's thoughts we can still try to analyze this based on his actions well this move would indicate to me at least that he believes there is still value in the market for investors that are willing to look closely enough for it and let's not forget the buff it hasn't been sitting on the sidelines doing nothing either in fact Buffett has simply been much more active buying and selling individual stocks lately than doing deals for entire companies Berkshire Hathaway recently slashed its stake in Goldman Sachs and dumped its positions in Airlines Southwest American United and Delta but Berkshire has bought shares of Amazon high-end furnishing retailer RH and Kroger in the past year Berkshire also recently lost a bidding war for software and hardware distributor tech data to private equity firm Apollo Global Management so there are bullish signals here however while Buffett's actions might indicate to us that he still sees some value in the market even after the Fed has pumped so much liquidity into it we must also recognize the size of the deal the dominion agreements total enterprise value would account for about 7 percent of the cash the Buffett is currently sitting on meaning it's not something that's going to move the needle from a balance sheet standpoint so while this is the most bullish indication that we've had from Warren Buffett for some time I would guess and this is just my opinion that these small size of the acquisition might tell us that Buffett thinks there is still some value in the markets but maybe not that much now what does this mean for the regular investor you know people like you and me I mean I don't know about you but I'm personally still living with my family as I'm saving up to someday move out so I'm not exactly going out there and buying up entire companies like Warren Buffett's well in my opinion and this is just my opinion I think there are two approaches that can work for people like us the first is the hands-on approach to finding value now if you're dedicated to analyzing the market and committed to spending hours researching to find undervalued companies you might want to take a look into Buffett's rationale behind investing Berkshire struck the deal at a low point in the market natural gas futures in the u.s.
dropped last month to their lowest point in 25 years and have recovered just slightly since according to Bill's Mead chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management this looks like confirmation that commodities like energy are undervalued for Berkshire the move greatly increases its footprint in the natural gas business with this purchase Berkshire Hathaway will carry 18% of all interstate gas transmission in the United States up from 8% currently the deals timing might show that mr.
Buffett sees a silver lining in the regulatory headaches more barriers for new pipeline build-outs could mean better value for existing ones the pace of pipeline build-outs has long lagged behind the production of oil and gas even with reduced production recently pipelines will likely have plenty of business going forward for Dominion the move is part of its transition to a pure play regulated utility company the focus is on clean energy production from wind solar and natural gas following the sale Dominion expects the 90% of its future operating earnings will come from its utility companies that provide energy to more than 7 million customers in states like Virginia North and South Carolina Ohio and Utah if you're taking the hands-on approach to investing you should do a lot of research I've included the source in the description so you can check out the information I've just covered throughout but you need to do much more research than I can fit into a 10 to 20 minute video you need to really dedicate several days to researching it the key thing here is if you're going to take a hands-on approach to picking individual stocks you need to acknowledge that is not a part-time hobby it really is a full-time job and I would also point out the research investing 100% into the stock market even if you are picking the individual stocks makes for a very up-and-down very volatile set of investments so even for someone who actively picks the stocks it doesn't mean you should be 100% invested into the stock market the second approach is the hands-off approach and I'll be honest this is my personal favor it involves creating a diversified set of investments and rebalancing every now and then with rebalancing it can be as infrequent as once a year or more often depending on how much time you have and the associated fees so up here you'll actually see a video I've created on how to build a diversified set of investments click on it now if you'd like to learn more and of course thank you for watching you
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