저자: KathyWood/인터뷰진행:TomHeavey · 외국인
요약 보기
2021년 8월 영상으로, 마이클 베리의 ARK 숏 베팅과 캐시 우드의 반박을 비교한 콘텐츠다. 결론: 영상 제작자는 명확한 방향을 내리지 않고 캐시 우드 쪽 논리가 더 설득력 있다고 제시한다. 베리 측 주장: 인플레이션(심지어 하이퍼인플레이션)이 올 것이고 연준이 금리를 올리고 양적완화를 줄이면 고밸류 성장주가 가장 타격을 받는다. 그래서 ARK 보유 종목에 숏을 건다. 베리는 2021년 6월 트윗에서 현재를 '역대 최대 투기 거품'이라고 규정. 캐시 우드 측 주장: 거품이 아니라고 본다. 과거 닷컴 거품기와 달리 현재 기대감·애널리스트 목표가 경쟁 과열이 없고, 유망 IPO는 하락 중이다. 핵심 투자 테마는 DNA 시퀀싱, 로보틱스, 에너지 저장, 인공지능, 블록체인 5대 플랫폼(14개 기술). 디플레이션 관점: 우드는 인플레이션보다 디플레이션 위험이 더 크다고 본다. 기술 기반 '좋은 디플레이션'(학습곡선에 따른 원가·가격 하락)과, 단기 주주 압력으로 레버리지를 키운 기업의 '나쁜 디플레이션'을 구분한다. 근거로 목재가격 약 1/3 하락(고점 대비 약 17,110→4,500달러대), 구리 15~20% 하락, 유가 15~20% 하락을 든다. 달러 강세와 중국 이슈를 연결한다. 평가 방식: ARK는 섹터가 아닌 기술별로 리서치하며, 라이트의 법칙(누적 생산량 기준 원가 하락)을 중심으로 분석한다. 2020년 약 220만 대였던 전기차 판매가 2025년경 4,000만 대로 늘 것이라고 본다(우드의 전망이며 확정 수치 아님). 테슬라는 자동차 기업 하나가 아니라 AI칩·배터리·로보틱스·에너지 기업으로 봐야 한다고 주장한다. 리스크/조건: 금리 상승과 인플레이션이 현실화되면 고밸류 성장주의 타격이 불가피하다는 것이 숏 측 논리. 우드는 채권시장이 자신의 디플레이션 시각과 맞는다고 본다. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드는 ARK 보유 혁신 기업들이 장기적으로 크게 성장한다고 전망하나, 구체적 단기 방향성 발언은 제한적이다.
다듬은 글
is kathy wood's ark overvalued over the past few months more and more investors have been claiming that cathy woods investments have climbed too high too fast in fact one of the world's most respected investors for predicting crashes michael barry recently revealed that his firm today are shorting ark in other words the man who bet on the 08 housing market crash before anyone else is now betting on kathy woods arc to full in value so who's right is kathy wood right or has michael barry called it correctly again in this video we're gonna hear from both sides to try to answer those questions so back in june this year michael barry tweeted to say people always ask me what is going on in the markets it is simple greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things by two orders of magnitude flying pigs 360.
so the famed investor has been vocal in sharing his opinion that inflation is coming potentially even hyperinflation and his investments come as a direct consequence of this belief so what happens if inflation does continue to rise well if inflation rises too sharply the fed will likely have no choice but to raise interest rates and cut back on quantitative easing which we've seen recently now if all else is equal the biggest losers of this would be the companies who are trading on high valuations today because of the great potential they may offer in the future in other words the investments that kathy wood holds with her firm arc so in simple terms it appears that michael barry believes inflation is coming and so he plans to profit by shorting ark however kathy wood doesn't quite agree naturally she has a few counter arguments to share so let's hand it over to her now and ceo kathy wood joins us here on tech chat this morning kathy always good to have you thanks for the time thank you for inviting me carl always happy to be here so let's talk about the short community at large what is your message to them right now well you know what when uh i see such negative sentiment out there especially when it comes to valuation and longer uh time horizons investment time horizons uh i actually feel a a little more comfortable i like bad news and maybe news that's uh not the discounting is is worse now than the news actually will be i actually feel better in that kind of environment for for our strategies uh i don't think we're in a bubble which is what i think many bears think we are um in a bubble and i remember the late 90s uh you know our strategy would have been cheered on go go get them all right you know and you remember the leapfrogging of analysts uh making estimates one higher than the other price targets one higher than the other we have nothing like that right now in fact you see a lot of uh ipos or specs coming out and falling to earth we couldn't be further away from a bubble and the reason for that is the innovation around which we have centered our research uh the the these five platforms dna sequencing robotics energy storage artificial intelligence and blockchain technology are barely off the ground the seeds for all of these platforms were planted in the 20 years that ended in the tekken telecom bust and ended in tears and that and there's a lot of muscle memory around that but that's not what's going on right now the seeds planted back then are beginning to flourish now and it's just beginning with with five platforms involving 14 different technologies all of which are about to experience s-curves and feed one another's s-curves i don't think the market's ready for this that's what i meant uh we we're st we've dedicated our research and investing to innovation because we think we've never been at a more uh uh provocative time for innovation in history and i do want to get to how some of those forces are playing out on your macro thesis which you've talked about a lot in recent months but as far as the shorts go in terms of how their how they have their eyes set on ark specifically is it just do you think is it general macro bearishness or does it have something more to do with your ability to analyze all these companies that you're now in and stay on top of that game i i actually think it's more of a macro call i i i um when i read the bearish analyses they seem to be centered on inflation and interest rates going higher uh which will kill valuations and if anything uh as as you mentioned carl we're focused on the deflationary forces uh that are building up in the economy i think that's going to be the shocker out there that uh deflation is the greater risk now not inflation and and not all deflation is bad there's really good deflation associated with these technologically enabled uh uh platforms uh there they follow learning curves which are characterized by declining costs and prices and enables uh more and more sectors to have access to these powerful new technologies so that's good deflation uh the bad deflation is going to be associated with companies whose uh who paid too much attention to short-term oriented shareholders who wanted their profits now wanted their dividends now and did not want companies to sacrifice short-term profitability in order to capitalize on some of these massive trends that we see building they are going to be stuck with obsolete products and yet in the meantime they've leveraged up uh their balance sheets to buy back sales uh and satisfy short-term oriented shareholders how are they going to uh service that debt they're going to have to cut prices of these products and services that are not going to be as popular in the future as they have been in the past and then the third source of deflation which is really starting to come through now in a noticeable way started in mid-may uh when lumber prices broke we're seeing commodity price uh deflation uh it's uh it's uh we've gone from with lumber prices have been cut to one-third less than one-third of their peak 17-11 to 4 500 right now you've got copper down roughly 15 15 to 20 percent you now have oil down nearly 15 to 20 percent uh and i think the cream of the crop here and the reason this may be happening and may accelerate to the downside is the dollar is going up and that of course might be associated with what's going on in china right and kathy a few moments ago you talked about the innovative way that you guys that are structure your research and i wonder what does someone shorting arc miss about your approach the advantages or perhaps the differences of being an etf versus say a hedge fund i don't think the rapper matters that much i i think our research is the differentiator and and the way we've set up our research department is a differentiator unlike traditional asset management firms our analysts do not follow sectors uh they follow technologies the 14 different technologies that i mentioned involved in these five major innovation platforms so they are technology specialists and they are generalists when it comes to sectors so we have a very good idea based on our analysis of these technologies and wright's law wright's law we've centered our research around it uh wright's law is a relative of moore's law uh but moore's law is a function of time wright's law is a function of units and wright's law has worked better in the semiconductor industry recently than moore's law has so we think that's a very important gauge of how quickly these costs are going to decline over time and uh we also pay a lot of attention to price elasticity of demand at what point in this cost or price decline trajectory will uh new sectors open up to these new technologies uh and so i think what we are able to see is exponent are exponential growth trends that are not priced into the market i'll give you the uh easiest example last year uh ev sales were 2.2 million units around the world we think based on uh the declining costs of battery pack systems uh that uh that electric vehicle prices will drop below gas powered prices uh in a year or so they're already lower from a total uh cost of ownership uh point of view so we think that 2.2 million will be 40 million in five years in 2025 not even five years no one is for forecasting that so our the starting point from the top down using wright's law getting a sense of how quickly the costs associated with these technology our technologies are falling and how quickly therefore they will be taken up by more and more sectors and industries over time so kathy highlights several key points firstly the bond market appears to agree with kathy not michael barry secondly commodity prices such as lumber may have seen a rapid growth in price earlier in the year but they have subsequently fallen sharply but most of all the main thing that kathy believes short investors are simply missing is that the five technology platforms she focuses on span across numerous different industries so while traditional analysts may focus on an individual industry at arc they recognize that technology like blockchain or artificial intelligence will have wide-ranging applications across virtually every sector in the coming years as a result you can't apply traditional sector metrics to value a company that doesn't operate within just that sector a company like tesla for example you can't value them as just a car manufacturer because it is also an artificial intelligence chip company a battery company a robotics company an energy company and even more now of course there will be a fair value for companies like tesla but the key point is that we have to include all of those elements when giving them their value to say tesla are just a car company would be wildly missing the mark and yet that is exactly what so many traditional analysts today are doing so those are michael barry and kathy wood's thoughts but i'm interested to hear your thoughts do you think kathy is right or do you think it's barry that will have the last laugh let me know your thoughts in the comments below thank you for watching and i will see you again very soon
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