저자: TomHeavey · 외국인
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워런 버핏이 항공주 전량 매도, 골드만삭스 지분 84% 매도, 현금 약 1400억 달러 축적 등 최근 매도 행보를 보이며 주식시장이 고평가 상태라는 신호가 많다는 결론. 버핏 지표(시가총액/GDP)는 156%로 사상 최고치 부근이며, 이는 주식시장이 경제 규모에 비해 과열됐음을 시사. CAPE(PE 비율)는 2009년 15 대비 약 두 배 수준으로 역사적 평균보다 높아 저평가 종목 찾기가 어렵다고 설명. Broch Value(금리 포함 지표)는 2019년 중반 이후 시장이 저평가 구간이라고 보여주며 상반된 신호를 제시. 영상은 시장 방향을 확신할 수 없으며 상승·폭락 모두 대비하라는 결론. 자산 분산(국가·자산유형)과 헤지 필요성을 강조. 버핏과 레이 달리오도 강세 전망을 내놓지 않는다고 언급. 화자는 자신을 금융 자문가가 아니라고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
so early in May we found out the Warren Buffett had sold all of his airline shares some investors were quick to point out that this was just an indication of how Buffett views the airline industry not his thoughts on the overall stock market however since then Buffett has sold 84% of his stake in Goldman Sachs and has grown his cash pile to nearly one hundred and forty billion dollars in times like these I find a best to look past the words and analyze the actions of great investors such as Warren Buffett if we can successfully analyze well one of the world's great investors is doing with his money and why he's doing it maybe we can learn a thing or two which would help us with our own investments during these somewhat crazy times that's why in this video we'll be taking a look at Warren Buffett's recent actions we'll be explaining why he isn't buying stocks using things like the Buffett ratio and most importantly what this means for us and how we can learn from him for our investments so let's get straight into it in the first quarter of 2020 Berkshire Hathaway posted a huge net loss of nearly fifty billion dollars with the stock market suffering from a major crash this wasn't exactly a surprise though what is a surprise is Buffett's actions afterwards as Buffett is famously said in the past be greedy only when others are fearful in other words when the stock market is crashing and everyone is fearful that it will fall further this is the smart investors opportunity to buy stocks at a discount imagine the stock market as your favorite clothes store this talk for example I think is from next if I walked into a next door when they do eventually reopen and found this same top at a 30% discount that'll be great I'd probably buy quite a few so why should the stock market be different if there is a stock you love and it drops by 30% it's an opportunity to buy the same item for 30% less than it was a few days before this is usually when Warren Buffett goes shopping in 2008 when the market was in a frenzy and most investors were fearful Buffett swooped in to pick up five billion dollars worth of stock in goldman sachs and made a tidy profit from it so when the stock market crashed in the first quarter of this year you'd expect buffett would be up to his old tricks and begin shopping while the sale was on however he did the opposite he actually sold more stocks than he bought not only did he sell all of his airline shares he also sold 84% of his stake in the bank Goldman Sachs he sold some of his position in another bank JP Morgan although this was a smaller portion with just about 3% on top of this though he reduced his investment into Amazon by naught point 7 percent and sold his entire stake in Phillips 66 for an investor who so frequently highlights the importance of holding stocks in the long term and ignoring the short-term fluctuations Buffett has been making drastic changes to his company's portfolio so the question is why because Warren Buffett believes were in a recession okay I think we're finished that was a quick recording today thanks for tuning in I'll see you again soon okay no but seriously let's take a look into a Warren Buffett is thinking and how we can learn from his wealth of knowledge for our own personal investing so as I mentioned at the beginning we can use something known as the Buffett ratio and we're going to talk about that in just a second but quickly believe it or not I'm actually on my 17th minute of recording so far as I'm really not very good on camera so if you could take a second to like the video it helps the YouTube algorithm and I would really appreciate it so let's look at the Buffett ratio on the screen now we can see this chart and that the current level of 156 percent is near all-time highs but what does this mean what exactly is this chart telling us well this chart is a ratio of the value of the stock market divided by the GDP of the United States or in other words it is the value of the stock market divided by the size of the economy so you've probably heard that the stock market isn't the same as the economy in fact if you've taken a look out of the window over the past few months and then notice that the stock market is somehow still rising I'm sure you know exactly what I'm talking about but here's the thing the Buffett ratio puts the stock market in context with the economy because Warren Buffett knows that while the stock market and economy sometimes head off in different directions for a while they will nearly always meet again further down the line if the stock market grows but the economy doesn't the Buffett ratio grows higher if the ratio increases too much a rational mind would expect the stock market is likely to drop at some point although then again a rational mind can hardly account for Jerome Powell and the money printing machine so there is that but what we have to remember here is the Buffett is a value investor which means that he invests into stocks but he believes are below their fundamental value with the entire stock market appearing high in relation to the economy it's likely the Buffett can't see many if any stocks that are trading below their fundamental value and as a result a second crash could be around the corner here's another indicator this chart shows the p/e ratio of companies in the stock market dating back to 1880 if you haven't heard of the p/e ratio don't worry it's not complicated it's basically just a measure of how much a company is worth compared with how much money they actually make the higher the ratio the more expensive you could say a company is it's kind of AIT's conceptual sense right if you have two companies let's say company a and Company B and Company A makes twice as much money as Company B then Company A should be worth more in other words a company that makes more money should of course be worth more money but here's where it gets tricky when times are good and investors are optimistic about the future people begin to pile their savings into the stock market this causes the market to rise but it doesn't mean that the companies are actually making any more money than they were before all that's happening is their stock price is growing but the business itself might not be or the business might be growing as well but not as quickly as a stock price and this is what we can see on the charts from around 2009 onwards from this point the p/e ratio of the stock market is regularly growing and that means that stock prices are growing fast but the companies aren't actually earning that much more money as an investor who is looking for stocks trading under their fundamental value this is of course a bad sign look at 2008 the ratio drops to 15 the lowest it had been in nearly 20 years perhaps Buffett looked at this and thought to himself the companies look relatively cheap because he believed that the number would rise again he was investing heavily compare this to today and the ratio is just under thority which tells us that stocks are now twice as expensive compared to their earnings than they were in 2009 and higher than the vast majority of the past 140 years and this is taking the recent crash into account so if we're talking about trying to find undervalued stocks again this isn't the best sign however I don't want to only highlight arguments for why the stock market is overvalued I want to approach my research from an unbiased perspective so let's look at another chart this time is a bit more positive and it's gonna show the stock market in fact could be undervalued on the screen you can see what is known as the brock value do you remember from earlier how the buffett ratio looked at the stock market compared to the economy well the brock value does the same except it also includes the country's interest rate so it has the economy the stock market and the interest rate why include the interest rate well as Buffett says the most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates if interest rates are destined to be at low levels it makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money in other words without getting too technical a lower interest rate usually results in a higher stock market and a higher interest rate usually results in a lower stock market now let's consider that interest rates are near all-time lows and there are many calls for negative rates in the upcoming future when we after this in the brach value begins to tell a very different story in fact based on this chart the stock market was overvalued for most of 2018 and early 2019 but around mid 2019 this flipped as the yellow line which represents a stock market drops below the white line halfway through 2019 this indicates that the stock market is actually undervalued from here onwards we can see the stock market has been undervalued ever since and is quite significantly undervalued at the time I'm recording this so what is it is the stock market undervalued or is it overvalued make your mind up Tom well in my opinion it's probably more likely to be overvalued based on what I'm seeing much more impactful than just my thoughts though is looking at what the world's top investors are doing if you're subscribed you'll know how I regularly talk about my two favorite investors Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio Warren Buffett is selling more stocks than he's bought and his company is sitting on the biggest pile of cash they've ever held so it doesn't sound too bullish Ray Dalio has been boldly saying we are in a depression like the 1930s so it's fair to say he's not too bullish either so why did I show you that last indicator the brach value is it just to confuse you more well the truth is nobody knows which way the stock market is going to move not even the world's best investors and certainly not me so while it would be easy for me to say that the stock market may crash again I have to recognize that I'm certainly not smart enough to make such bold predictions instead the best thing I can do to add value to you is to highlight the likelihood of both outcomes so you can understand why it's important for investors to prepare for both outcomes I know that may sound somewhat counterintuitive right how can you prepare for the stock market to rise and prepare for it to crash at the same time surely you have to pick either direction well if you are 100% invested into the market you're screwed if there is a crash if you're not invested into the stock market at all you risk missing out if the market continues rising now I'm not a financial adviser and I'm not gonna tell you what to do my only aim with these regular videos I record is to share my research as I try to wrap my own head around things and all I'll say is that from my research hedging your bets often looks like a good idea in other words not being all in or all out the key to this is to make sure you do a few things well if I were to ask you what are you invested into what would the answer be would it be mostly the American stock market perhaps an SMP 500 index if the answer is yes I understand that makes total sense over the past 100 years that's basically the best investment around and I expect it will be one of the best investments again over the next hundred years but consider this for a second you're well diversified across the American stock market doesn't it make more sense to diversify across different countries and different investment types so not just America and not just stocks you see most people have a tendency to invest into their own stock market far more than they should take me for example I'm from England so should I invest more into the English markets than the American well no of course not just because I'm from England it doesn't change anything America is the world's largest economy and the world's largest stock market so it makes more sense for someone like me to invest more into America than my own country this is why I talk so often about the American markets and not as much about the English the best thing you can do is to pretend for a second that you're not from any country imagine you were an an alien who visited and decided you wanted to be the next Warren Buffett okay slightly strange I know but just go with me here if this were the case you wouldn't be affiliated with any country so you'd look at all of them and conclude that it doesn't make sense to invest into only one instead you might buy a little bit of each of the countries and you'd probably buy a little bit more of the countries with the larger economies such as the United States and you'd probably also buy a little bit less of these smaller economies such as England's so if you're holding the American stock market ask yourself how well diverse via that really is does it make sense to add some of the UK stock market what about the rest of Europe and how about the Asian markets again try for a second to pretend that you're not from any country and simply ask yourself what would you do in that situation because we all fall foul to the tendency to invest into our own stock market but the truth is if you're building the perfect portfolio why does it matter what country you're from surely is a numbers based thing so really dividing this up between the biggest countries regardless of where you're from seems like the best thing to do after you as this alien has invested into many different stock markets you realize that you're still not diversified because you only hold stocks yes you do hold stocks in many different countries but as we know from past experience when the stock market crashes in one country it often crashes in another one - so are you really prepared for a stock market crash this is when you might want to think about diversifying across different investment types in particular investments which don't go down when the stock market does holding a little bit of these investments as well as stocks might protect you better if a crash does calm in fact I've recently released a video discussing two of these types of investments and how the world's best investors are investing into them right now to protect themselves in case there is a crash so it should be up here now and if you want to check it out click up here if you've enjoyed this video well I released three videos per week like this on Mondays Wednesdays and Fridays so be sure to subscribe if you don't want to miss them thank you for watching
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