저자: TomHeavey · 외국인
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워런 버핏이 배럭골드 지분 1.2%를 매수했지만 금을 직접 산 것은 아니며, 금 가격 상승은 금광업체 실적에 직접 영향을 준다. 발언자는 금 가격 상승 전망을 지지해 왔으나 버핏의 과거 금 비판과 대비해 양측 논거를 제시하겠다고 밝힘. 버핏의 금 비판: 100년 보유해도 생산성이 없으며, 농지나 주식(배당)이 장기적으로 금을 이긴다고 주장. 발언자의 금 강세 근거: 연준의 대규모 통화 공급으로 인한 인플레이션 우려, 경제 회복이 V자형이 아닐 것이라는 판단, 중앙은행의 긴축 지연 가능성. 버핏의 투자 규모: 배럭골드 투자 5.63억 달러는 현금 1400억 달러 대비 약 0.4%로 작은 편. 금 직접 보유 vs 금광주: 금광주는 금 가격에 2차 레버리지가 붙어 수익과 위험이 모두 커지며, 발언자는 금 현물(ETF) 보유로 충분하다고 봄. 발언자는 개인적으로 금 강세를 유지하며 위험 감수 수준에 따라 투자 방식을 고르라고 권유.
다듬은 글
okay so warren buffett has been buying gold and that is not a sentence i thought i'd ever be saying now you've probably heard the buffet has been buying gold but what exactly does this mean for you does this mean that you should be buying gold is it smarter instead to buy the companies that mine gold or is the opportunity just already gone have you already missed your chance so in this video i'm gonna break down my research on gold and try to help you to answer all of these questions for yourself now of course this video is not financial advice i'm just a regular guy researching this stuff to really get my own head around things and then i'm just sharing this research with you in the hopes that it really helps you to understand things better so you can make an educated decision for yourself okay so let's get straight into it so i've been a big fan of gold for some time in fact three of the past four videos that i've released have involved conclusions with me saying that i think gold looks set to outperform most other investments so it would be really easy for me to sit here and say that warren buffett has bought gold and that means he's bullish so i'm bullish and you should be bullish too but the truth is it's a little bit more nuanced than that and as much as i'm really excited about the world's largest investor investing into something that i've been talking about for months and months my responsibility to you at the end of the day is to present you with both sides of the argument so that's what i'm going to try to do in this video i'm not going to be overly bullish or bearish i'm going to try to present both sides of the argument okay so despite all of the headlines buffett hasn't actually bought gold instead he's purchased a 1.2 stake in barrack gold the world's second largest gold miner so he hasn't actually bought gold he's bought shares in a company that mines gold but what exactly is the difference well when you buy gold you're obviously just buying gold which means the price goes up and down and that's what's going to happen to your investment whereas with a gold mining company you're betting on how well the company is going to perform and of course generate profits but if you had to think about it for a second and take a guess what do you think is the single largest driver of that company's profits what changes it most of all well of course it's the price of goals i mean think about it for a second if gold sells at one thousand dollars per ounce and then over the course the next few years the price doubles to two thousand dollars well the company who are pulling it out of the ground and selling it they can obviously sell it at a much higher price if they can do this they can make more profit and so the company becomes more valuable so i think the first important distinction to make is that warren buffett has bought shares in a company but also with such a strong link between the price of gold and the shares of the company let's just say you don't buy a gold mining company unless you're also a little bit bullish on gold as well okay so great yet another investor is bullish in gold in 2020 but we have plenty of those so what exactly is the big deal here well the reason that this is such big news isn't just because warren buffett as the ceo of berkshire hathaway is the largest investor in the world it's because he's also famously been very outspoken in his belief the gold is not a good investment there's a clip that i'm going to share with you in a second but before i do that i'd just like to quickly say this video took a while to research record and edit so if you do appreciate the work that went into this remember to just smash the like button as it really helps with the youtube algorithm anyway here is that clip of warren buffett talking about gold if you if you buy an ounce of gold today and you hold it a hundred years you can go to it every day and you can you can coo to it and you can caress it and and you can fondle it and and 100 years from now you'll have one ounce of gold and it won't have done anything for you in between if you buy 100 acres of farmland it will produce for you every year you can use that money to buy more farmland you can do it all kinds of things but for a hundred years it'll produce things for you and you still have 100 acres of farmland at the end of the 100 years uh you could buy the dow jones industrial average for 66 at the start of 1900 gold was then 20 at the end it was eleven thousand four hundred but you'd all gotten dividends for a hundred years so a productive asset of any kind a decent productive asset is going to kill a non-productive asset over time now in any given one-year period five-year period any asset can outperform another essence incidentally they're right to be afraid of paper money i mean they they have a very their basic premise that that paper money around the world is going to get worth less and less and less over time is is absolutely correct but you just disagree with the investment theory beyond that yeah yeah where they run from that and and they should run from it uh is where in my view they make the mistake but they have a correct basic premise so buffett has often made the comment on gold that it is an unproductive asset as he puts it if you hold it for 100 years you're still going to have your gold at the end of that time but that's all you're going to have it hasn't produced anything so it seems kind of weird that he would invest into a company mining gold out of the earth but let's try to be fair and neutral and point out that because buffett has bought shares in the company a company that pays dividends and he hasn't bought gold directly buffett hasn't bought an unproductive asset but then again with the company's profits being determined in large part based on the value of gold's that unproductive asset there is a clear link between the price of gold and buffett's investments again i don't know of any investor who really buys shares in a gold mining company that isn't also a little bit bullish on gold so with this investment buffett appears to have done a u-turn and taken a positive stance on gold right well again like every situation in life we have to really dig into the details to see the truth let's start with why he might have bought gold and then we can run through the counter arguments well gold is a store of value it tends to hold its value and even grow in times of high inflation and when there is less certainty around the economy now uncertainty around the economy i think that one goes without saying and we don't need to go into much detail there but what about inflation well i've spoken a lot about the fed printing vast sums of money in previous videos but we really all know about that that's nothing new what's really interesting is the question of when will they stop printing so much money in a recent video entitled is it too late to buy gold i made the point that the fed have a really difficult choice in front of them you see if they stop printing money too soon if they cut down on stimulus packages etc the economy may slide backwards and take a further negative turn if they stop printing money too late the economy might be okay but the dollar will probably be pushed to the point of high inflation and with economics as well it's never as simple as just stopping at the right time because these things are so difficult to judge so the question is which one out of those two do we think they are more likely to lean towards are they more likely to favor stopping too soon and risk harming the economy or stopping too late and risk harming the dollar well in my opinion i think the economy is the absolute priority which means they'll probably favor stopping too late if anything and that means the dollar could be devalued through inflation it is because i think that inflation is coming and i'm less than confident about the economy that i've personally been bullish on gold and we could make an argument that perhaps buffett feels the same way but again my responsibility to you is really to present both sides of the coin and not just my personal opinion and to tell you the truth that's not the easiest here i mean the world's largest investor who has been famously negative about gold his whole career has just invested into a gold mining company and this news comes out after i've been banging on about gold for months and months and literally three of my previous four videos have concluded specifically with bullish words on just gold so part of me just wants to say we have conclusive proof the buffett is bullish on goal two and end the video right here thank you for joining but that's not right to do so instead let's consider for a second the buffett and his company berkshire hathaway are sitting on around 146 billion dollars in cash or a cash convertible earning a relatively low interest rate the staggering amount of cash that he's holding could perhaps be taken as an indication that he's maybe not as bullish on the stock market as his words might indicate either way he has billions of dollars in cash or cash convertibles so he has to start thinking about how to protect that money sure his main focus is picking great stocks which means he'll be able to beat the market but as that pile of cash grows he obviously has to consider how to make sure that inflation doesn't gradually eat into it and again this is where gold usually comes in for most investors but let's consider the size of buffett's investments into barrick gold in total he invested 563 million dollars at the same time he's holding over 140 billion dollars in cash if we took his investment into barrack and divided it by his cash pile it would give us a value of just 0.4 percent or a ratio of 250 to one so there's no getting around the fact the buffer's investment to gold is relatively small compared to the amount of money that he holds as cash although then again this is still the most bullish investment on gold the buffett has made so even if we must try to put things into perspective in terms of size as gold investors we can maybe also take a little bit of pleasure seeing one of the world's largest and most anti-gold investors give such a bullish signal for the precious metal now let's talk quickly about whether it's too late to buy gold or whether it's not and then we'll talk about whether it makes most sense to simply buy gold itself or if it's better to buy a gold mining company like buffett has done and then i'll share exactly what i've done with you so i've recently released a video going into the details about why i'm still bullish on gold even after such an incredible 2020.
and i'd really recommend you check it out after this the link will be in the description too but i'll highlight a few key points for you here so we know why people buy gold it's a protection against inflation and it's an insurance policy in case of difficulty with the economy well when you're looking at the next three to five years let's say whether you're bullish or not comes down to what you think is going to happen for these two things inflation and the economy now for me personally i think the economy is going to take a lot longer to recover than many people believe i think the idea that it will be a v-shaped recovery sounded great when it was mostly pushed it sounds less likely now and really sounds good in the lead up to an election but the data coming out to me just indicates that i don't think it's going to happen and when i look at inflation i don't see the fed or just about any central bank worldwide cutting down on money printing to support the economy anytime soon so when i look at these two factors i think they both still play into gold and as a result when i consider the reasons why gold has increased in 2020 i think these reasons continue as a result i'm still bullish on the price because again i think the reasons to be bullish will continue forwards on top of that we're seeing quite a unique effect with the fed printing so much money because they pump so much money into the market some of this extra money has actually begun spilling over into other markets such as commodities in fact we've recently been witnessing virtually all markets somehow rising simultaneously stocks bonds and commodities have all been climbing in recent months so as i think that the fed is going to continue printing money i also think the money is going to continue spilling over from the stock market into other investments such as gold particularly as investors become more fearful of buying the stock market at or near all-time highs now the question of whether to buy gold or gold mining companies is a really interesting one so the way that i tend to see it is that buying gold is like buying an investment with one layer you buy gold and if the price rises your investment rises if the price falls your investment falls nice and simple buying a gold mining company on the other hand is like adding a second layer you see you still have that layer at the bottom which is the price of gold and that layer is going to heavily impact what happens to your investment into the company but now that you've added a second layer on top that's what the company does for example if the company are able to outperform their competitors they'll be able to grow at a faster rate and will potentially increase in value even more than just buying gold by itself with the value of fuel being as cheap as it is globally this reduces the cost for all mining companies allowing them to potentially be even more profitable however with this there is the downside risk too what happens if you invest in a mining company that is outperformed by its competitors what happens if fuel prices rise and the profit margins of all mining companies simultaneously fall what if the company collapses you'd lose all your money well holding gold it might just sit there and return nothing it's an unproductive asset but at least it can't go bankrupt so when you add a second layer you're essentially increasing your potential reward but you're also increasing your risk so in my opinion whether it makes more sense to look at gold or gold mining companies really comes down to two things number one how much risk do you want to take on if you're looking for higher risk and higher reward then maybe adding a second layer could work if you don't want added risk buying gold by itself should be sufficient and number two are you able to research and understand companies well enough to be able to analyze that second layer now if you're warren buffett of course you can that's where he excels but if you're not working full-time in the investment arena then it can be quite challenging so for me personally i already hold some high-risk investments such as cryptocurrency so when i look at gold i'm not really trying to add too much risk i'm not trying to take on the highest risk possible and as a result for me simply holding gold is enough but of course it's going to differ for everyone that's just what works for me i'm really just trying to outline so you can gauge what works best for you finally when it comes to holding physical gold or buying an etf i personally hold my investments in an etf as i'm invested through a government scheme which allows me to increase my investments by 25 i produced a whole video on the pros and cons of the two approaches though because there are some serious trade-offs to both side of things so check it out by clicking up here now if you've enjoyed this video remember to smash the like button for the youtube algorithm and subscribe for videos every tuesday and wednesday and of course just thank you for watching
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