저자: MatthewCrowder · 외국인
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결론: 발언자는 버핏·멍거의 비트코인 비판이 기술 이해 부족과 현행 fiat 금융체제 이해관계에서 비롯되었다고 주장한다. 멍거의 발언 및 비트코인 평가 멍거는 비트코인이 세계의 교환 수단이 되지는 않을 것이며, 금의 인공적 대체재라고 말했다. 발언자는 비트코인이 궁극적 준비자산·가치저장 수단이 될 것이라고 본다. 과거 비판과 성과 비교 2018년 비트코인이 4~5천 달러일 때 멍거는 비트코인을 무가치하다고 비판했다. 지난 20년간 금(약 562%)이 버크셔해서웨이(약 433%)보다 성과가 좋았다고 지적한다. 지난 11~12년간 나스닥(QQQ 약 480%)이 버크셔를 크게 상회했다. 기술 이해도 비판 버핏은 2020년 초에야 아이폰을 샀으며, 2010년대 주요 기술주 투자는 IBM으로 실패였다고 언급한다. 애플·아마존 투자는 후계 투자자들의 선택이었을 것이라고 본다. 멍거·버핏의 투자 이력 비판 멍거가 비트코인을 신선한 아기 뇌 거래에 비유한 발언을 문제 삼는다. 코카콜라 등 중독성 제품 투자를 세계 건강 문제와 연결해 비판한다. 금융체제 이해관계 버핏·버크셔는 2008~2010년 정부 구제금융과 QE의 수혜자였다고 주장한다. 골드만삭스 워런트, 무디스 등에서 주택 버블과 구제금융 모두로 수익을 냈다고 설명한다. 웰스파고·뱅크오브아메리카 투자를 고객 피해 사례와 함께 언급한다. 리스크·조건 발언자는 비트코인의 변동성은 별도 영상에서 다룬다고 언급하며, 이 영상에서는 변동성 자체를 깊이 다루지 않는다. 출연자 전망 비트코인이 준비자산·가치저장 수단이 될 것이라는 장기 견해이며, 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
this is matthew crowder from trader university and today i want to talk about warren buffett charlie munger his business partner and bitcoin and their views on bitcoin i've been getting a lot of questions about it in light of this recent interview with charlie munger people have been asking me for my comments whenever i hear munger buffett talk about bitcoin or tech i always think of this meme old man yelling at a cloud and i feel very much that this is how monger and buffett behave regarding bitcoin they haven't done their research uh they're very both really smart guys obviously they're both billionaires and i'm not so obviously what do i know but the problem is if you've listened to them over the past 10 or 20 years you've really made a lot less money than you could have this is the key quote from munger's most recent interview on bitcoin so i don't think bitcoin is going to end up as a medium of exchange for the world i don't either we've been talking about bitcoin is it will be the the ultimate reserve asset the ultimate ultimate store value and balance sheet asset and whether it becomes a medium of exchange or not doesn't matter as much gold is obviously been a great store value for the last 5000 years and it does not function as a medium of exchange anymore you don't go to the supermarket and use it use gold to buy groceries anyway munger comes up with all these old tired critiques of bitcoin and you can tell that he hasn't really done his research it's too volatile we've heard all this but what's interesting in this interview he says it's really kind of an artificial substitute for gold and since i never buy any gold i never buy any bitcoin if you want to learn more about bitcoin and its volatility and what i think about that i will link to this video below now monger has been carrying been comparing bitcoin to uh to gold and calling it worthless for the last few years he did it when bitcoin was back at four or five thousand in 2018 the problem with comparing bitcoin to gold and critiquing it if you're buffett or monger is that gold has been outperforming excuse me it's been outperforming even berkshire hathaway which is their company for the past 20 years gold up 562 percent uh berkshire hathaway up 433 percent so this is uh i think monger should be a little more careful about comparing the performance to gold you could basically own a gold bar under your bed and it did better than these two old supposed investing geniuses likewise i don't know why anyone would want to listen to warren buffett or charlie munger when it comes to new technology they've been underperforming tech stocks really for the last uh call the last 11 or 12 years the nasdaq the qqq is up almost 480 percent berkshire hathaway up a little more than percent buffett himself finally got an iphone in early 2020.
he was obviously smart enough to invest in apple a few years before that but this is really the tech literacy of these guys they've missed out on the entire tech boom of the last 20 years obviously they've made good money in apple and amazon but you can imagine what they would have done if they didn't have all their capital tied up in the banks oil companies and in other really old economy dying brands the biggest tech stock that buffett bet on for most of the 2010s was really ibm which ended up being a complete disaster so when he says he doesn't know about investing in tech i think we should take him at his word amazon apple were almost certainly picks of his lieutenants his younger lieutenants who is he's been grooming to take over after he and munger are no longer in charge if you're finding this video helpful and if you want to learn more about why i think value investing is dead i really go into it in depth in this video and i'd also ask you if you're enjoying this video to hit that subscribe and hit that like button back in 2018 uh buffett i'm sorry monger said that uh he compared trading bitcoin or investing in bitcoin to trading freshly harvested baby brains he says you wouldn't trade them you wouldn't trade them would you it's too awful a concept to me bitcoin is almost as bad this is a sure sign that someone is not thinking clearly obviously munger's known for his colorful analogies but to compare bitcoin to trading baby baby brains uh it's really quite unbelievable especially given buffett and munger's history of investing in companies that are actually really bad for the world coca-cola objectively over the last 40 years has probably caused more health problems around the world than any other company they sell highly addictive uh highly addictive drinks that are full of uh full of fructose and it's you don't need to google much to find all these stories about especially uh countries uh developing countries suffering from uh from coca-cola and the diabetes that it brings with all of the uh the high sugar content and it's it's even more sinister than that monger has a famous uh speech where he talks about how to create a highly addictive substance a highly addictive drink and then market it to the whole world in the place of water you add salt to it to make people more thirsty you create all these nice uh brand images you know santa claus drinking coca-cola you can i'll link to this the speech this monger speech but he basically goes back and sort of tries to deconstruct the rise of coca-cola and what they did that was smart so when he compares bitcoin to baby brains i think uh actually dealing in coca-cola nothing against it i used i used to drink it uh but if you want to talk about net negatives for the world for global health uh bitcoin would not be the one that's closest to trading baby brains it would actually be many many of munger and buffett's investments they love investing in addictive snacks and an addictive uh products like uh like coca-cola in addition we can see why buffett and monger hate bitcoin they are very much beneficiaries of the current fiat financial system and they made most of their money in the wake of the us leaving the gold standard berkshire hathaway and buffett are beneficiaries of big government bailouts especially over the 2008-2010 time frame and they've really been beneficiaries of all the money printing the qe that was behind those bank bailouts in particular if buffett ends up buying into your company as he did with apple and amazon that's really a sure sign that your company has probably become a somewhat evil monopoly and buffett obviously likes investing in investments that have a good moat that can protect themselves and there's nothing there's no moat deeper than uh various tech oligopolies that have been allowed to grow bigger and stronger than most world governments and so i would suggest that this is one of the main reasons he invested in apple and amazon not because he likes the tech but because buffett is your classic monopolist here's the growth of the the money stock the m2 money supply over buffett's investing career you could have invested in gold you could have invested in anything any really hard asset or cash producing asset like a stock and done really well especially as interest rates have fallen from uh call it 20 percent short term interest rates down to zero percent we talked about uh buffett uh i always think of his middle name as being bailout he was invested in all these banks uh going into the great financial crisis and then he ended up uh being a beneficiary of it as he uh as he pushed the the fed and the treasury to bail out wells fargo goldman sachs and many of these companies that he then was able to invest in he got warrants in in uh which are a form of options in goldman sachs and he really made a fortune uh both ways he made a fortune on moody's for example which was rating all these junk subprime mortgages as aaa and um so he made money in the housing crisis the housing bubble going into the crisis and then he made money on the bailout as well here's a history of investing in companies like wells fargo uh bank of america which obviously treat their customers extremely badly wells fargo has had one scandal after another over the past 10 years especially creating fake customer accounts it looks like berkshire finally exited but there's still large shareholders in bank of america which is another terrible poorly run bank with terrible customer uh terrible customer service so i think that when you when you think about buffett and monger and their take on bitcoin you have to see it in this context when they call bitcoin rat poison or rat poison squared they are talking about it as a threat to the current financial system so there may there may even be something more sinister about this they may hit they may hate bitcoin because they actually understand it rather than just being old and not understanding not understanding tech i uh i just wish they had a little bit more humility it's obviously uh they've obviously both had great investing careers and they're very smart but they've i think they've outlived their understanding of the present and they especially have failed to comprehend the magnitude of what technology has done in the world over the last 20 years how software has revolutionized the world and how bitcoin which is really money as a form of software how it is revolutionizing the world so when you see uh when you see old guys like peter schiff or munger or buffett or any of these people badmouthing bitcoin i think it's important really to understand their context in the fiat financial system as well as the threat that that bitcoin poses to many of their current portfolio companies if you found this video helpful be sure to hit that subscribe and like button hit the notification bell if you want to be notified when i publish my next video and let me know your questions and comments in the comment section below thanks a lot for watching and i'll see you in the next video
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