저자: MatthewCrowder · 외국인
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Peter Schiff의 비트코인 관련 반복된 잘못된 예측과 금 옹호 논리의 모순을 비판하는 영상. 결론: 비트코인 비관론자 Schiff는 확증편향으로 계속 틀렸고, 그 결과 금이 몰수하기 어렵다거나 희소성이 가치와 무관하다는 주장까지 하게 됐다. [비트코인 버블 발언 이력] 2013년 Schiff는 비트코인을 튤립 버블, 금 2.0이 아닌 투기로 규정했고 당시 가격은 약 375달러였다. 같은 해 11월 '비트코인 대신 귀금속을 사려 한다면 다시 생각하라'는 트윗을 올렸고 그때 가격은 약 684달러였다. 이후 비트코인은 872% 상승했고 금은 35% 상승했다. [2017년 재차 버블 주장] 비트코인이 4,000달러를 처음 찍었을 때도 Schiff는 여전히 버블이라고 주장했다. 진행자는 10배 이상 오른 뒤에도 입장을 고수하는 태도를 비판했다. [2020년 예측 실패] 2020년 반감기(having) 이후 비트코인이 폭락할 것이라는 예측이 있었으나 실제로는 반대로 상승세가 이어졌다. 진행자는 공급이 줄어드는 희소 자산의 가격이 수요가 같다면 오르는 것이 상식이라고 지적했다. [금 vs 비트코인 논쟁] Schiff는 금이 비트코인보다 운반이 어렵고 몰수가 어렵다고 주장했으나, 진행자는 비트코인이 국경 통과와 전송에 훨씬 유리하다고 반박했다. 또 Schiff가 2020년 8월 '금의 가치는 희소성이 아니라 유용성에서 온다, 비트코인은 유용성이 없어 희소성은 무의미하다'고 트윗한 것에 대해, 진행자는 금 생산 중 산업용은 약 10%에 불과하고 나머지는 가치저장 수단으로 쓰인다고 지적했다. [스톡투플로우 분석] 진행자는 Plan B의 스톡투플로우(기존 재고/연간 생산량) 모델을 근거로 희소성이 시가총액과 상관관계가 있다고 설명했다. 금은 스톡투플로우가 가장 높고 시가총액도 가장 크며(약 11~12조 달러 수준), 은은 약 33년, 비트코인 시가총액은 약 2,100~2,200억 달러 수준이다. 비트코인의 스톡투플로우는 금에 근접하며 다음 반감기 이후 금을 넘어설 것이라고 주장했다. [진행자 개인 고백] 진행자 자신도 테슬라 약세론자였다가 2020년 5월 입장을 바꿔 800달러 부근에서 롱 포지션을 잡았고, 이것이 좋은 수익으로 이어졌다고 밝혔다. 공개 발언을 바꾸는 것은 고통스럽지만 돈을 버는 것이 맞는 것을 주장하는 것보다 낫다는 취지다. [결론] 진행자는 Schiff를 확증편향과 인지부조화의 사례로 제시하며, 그의 금 관련 주장들이 잘못된 판단을 정당화하기 위한 궤변이라고 평가했다. 그를 따르지 말 것을 권고했다. 현재 시점 기준 금 시가총액 대비 비트코인의 상대적 위치가 향후 상승 여력을 시사한다는 해석을 제시했다.
다듬은 글
this is matthew crowder from trader university and today i want to talk about peter schiff gold and bitcoin i've been getting a lot of questions about peter schiff so i thought i would address uh what i think of him and his views on gold if you're interested in learning how to make money in both bull and bear markets or you just want to see what i'm trading or investing in be sure to hit that subscribe button so for those of you who don't know peter schiff is a fairly famous libertarian talking ahead and gold bug he started euro pacific capital and now he runs i don't know if he changed the name to shift gold but he also runs a company uh maybe it's the same company called shift gold where he actually uh is a gold broker dealer who sells uh gold i think mostly to retail investors so uh peter schiff and i would agree i'm very bullish on physical gold as we see the dollar devaluing so someone like peter schiff and i have a lot in common in terms of our view of fiat money the central bank etc but i want to sort of watch walk you through the evolution of peter schiff's take on bitcoin and i think it's a it's a cautionary tale for everyone because this really could happen to anyone where we make a bad decision and then we have to double down and then we reach the point of complete absurdity so i'm going to show you how this works back in in 2013 um peter schiff was going on shows talking about how bitcoin was a bubble it was tula mania it was not a store value like gold 2.0 i think he criticized bitcoin as well in 2012.
i couldn't find the the link to that but this was back just to put into perspective today go today bitcoin is around uh 12 000 per bitcoin this is back when bitcoin was 375 dollars per bitcoin he said that bitcoin was in a bubble fast forward um a few more years i guess this is also 2013 where he says thinking of buying this is a tweet from november 22 2013.
thinking of buying bitcoin instead of precious metals think again at this point bitcoin was 684 uh since then at least up going up to march bitcoin uh bitcoin's obviously gone up a lot more it's doubled again from here roughly but bitcoin was up 872 percent and gold was up 35 and this is a pretty cruel meme all my tweets age well so fast forward to 2017 uh when bitcoin hit 4 000 for this first time and again this is going from what did we say 375 so it's basically up more than 10x he doubles down and says bitcoin is still in a bubble now when something keeps going up and it goes up for maybe 10 years it reaches the point where it can become fairly absurd to say something is in a bubble but this is the problem that peter schiff has is that he took a stance and he hasn't let new data alter his view and so now he's making just crazy predictions so here's an article from um i think this was originally published in may because it was talking about the may 2020 having last updated in in june this is why bitcoin will plunge after the 2020 having according to peter schiff obviously the exact opposite has happened it's been uh going straight up uh since there so the problem with having this sort of confirmation bias is that you begin to make bad predictions that that don't even make any sense because if if supply goes down for a commodity and let's say bitcoin's sort of a commodity it's scarce uh if the supply goes down why wouldn't you think that if demand stays equal that the price would go up i mean peter schiff's a smart economist he should understand these things but now he's reached the point where he is so committed to gold and so against bitcoin that he's begun to say completely absurd things and he's really uh at least in my opinion making a complete fool of himself so here's an article i'll link to about how gold is harder to confiscate than bitcoin now obviously bitcoin you can memorize your your 12 or 24 word keyword uh seed phrase your recovery phrase and you can walk across a border and you could take 100 million dollars with you or you could take a hundred thousand dollars or you could take a hundred dollars uh peter schiff is saying that gold is more difficult gold is easier to transport and and more difficult to confiscate than bitcoin which is just a common sense view i'll link to this article so you can read it but uh a common sense view of this just that says that this is absurd obviously gold is much more difficult to transport especially as you start talking about significant sums of money bitcoin is much easier to hide it's much easier to transport it's much easier to beam around the gold i could send some gold i could send some bitcoin right now to anywhere anywhere in the world and it would take 10 minutes 30 minutes maybe an hour at most how am i going to send gold how am i going to send gold anywhere in the world especially to some hostile uh regime and now i would say that we've reached the the height of peter schiff's absurdity this is a tweet from august 15 2020 and this is where i think he's he's completely lost all credibility uh in this tweet he says gold is not valuable because it's scarce gold's value comes from all the unique properties that it has as a medal utility makes gold valuable uh scarcity just makes it expensive bitcoin has no unique properties scarcity without utility is meaningless meaningless now the the reason schiff has been forced to adopt this point of view is that everyone has figured out that bitcoin is much more scarce than gold and so what peter schiff is being forced to do is to deny how important scarcity is now obviously copper is a lot less scarce than gold but it has a lot more unique properties in fact it's much more used as an industrial metal uh and uh but it's but it's it doesn't have the same value that gold does as if you look the market cap of all copper versus the market cap of all gold gold is much more valuable and i would argue it is because it is scarce there are lots of very interesting metals like palladium and platinum and some of the rare metals that are not as not as valuable as gold simply because when you look at their stock to flow and this is how we measure scarcity the stock to flow would just be the existing inventories of a metal divided by annual production so that these it's sort of an inflation measurement or it's the inverse of inflation measurement and i'll link to a paper that explains this but i would argue that this is why gold is so valuable it has a very high stock to flow silver has the next highest stock to flow and then you go on down the chain right now bitcoin has a stock to flow that's only slightly below gold and after the next having it's gonna have a stock to flow in other words it's gonna be much more scarce than gold and so peter schiff by refusing to admit his mistake is now at the point where he's forced to argue very absurd things that gold is is harder to confiscate than bitcoin and also that gold is not valuable because it's scarce it's clearly valuable because it's scarce and because the existing supplies increase so slowly because it's very expensive to mine and very very dangerous to mine there are a lot of environmental problems with gold mining etc and so i think he's a peter schiff's really a cautionary tale on what happens when you double down on bad uh when you double down on bad bets you begin to have to say really absurd things such as that the scarcity of gold doesn't matter gold is actually valuable because of its scarcity that's why it trades at a monetary premium to its utility or two it's your use value i've talked about this a little bit in previous videos but uh only ten percent of gold is used for industrial purposes the rest of the ninety percent of it is is basically used as a store value as a form it's a very ancient form of money i think plan b does a really great job in this paper talking about stock to flow relative scarcity and the market cap values a lot of people are confused by the fact that they just look at the price of uh they just look at the price of silver or the price of gold and try to decide which is cheaper than but the way you have to do it is you have to look at the uh the total market value of all the known above ground supplies so for example silver has a stock to flow these numbers are slightly dated now but silver has a stock to flow of approximately 33 which means it would take 33 years to replace all existing inventories above ground market value or market cap of 561 billion gold has a higher stock to flow as a result uh we're not necessarily interested in in the fact that the price per ounce is higher but the total market value the market cap is higher this is probably closer to 11 or 12 trillion at this point and uh to put this in perspective bitcoin only has a market cap so far of about 210 220 billion and i think plan b does a very good job of of of uh correlating market value total market cap to scarcity or stock to flow and so we can see for example right here gold has the highest stock to flow it also has the highest market cap and then there is a silver right here uh plan b is in the process of adding diamonds and real estate and some other things to this and then these other dots we see are bitcoin in various uh previous incarnations when it had a lower stock to flow but right now bitcoin stock to flow is closer to right here and as a result this is one reason i think it's going to go up so much now peter schiff is as i said is a cautionary tale about confirmation bias where we only look for evidence that confirms what we already believe and you know he's also a great example of cognitive dissonance where he's gone so far down the path of hitting bitcoin that he has to start saying absurdities such as that gold is harder to confiscate and the fact that gold is not valuable because it's scarce and all of this are sort of mental gymnastics that he has to go through in order to avoid uh admitting that he was wrong about bitcoin saying it was a bubble at 375 and a bubble at uh 4 000 in a bubble at 10 000 in a bubble at 12 000 etc so it's a cautionary tale uh i know how difficult it is to change your opinion i was a tesla bear for uh a long time and unfortunately i flipped around in may of 2020.
this was extremely painful to admit that i was wrong uh but i thought it was uh i much rather make money uh than be right and so i flipped around tesla and got long around uh 800 and that's been a very good ride so i definitely i understand how difficult it is to change your mind especially publicly when you've made public pronouncements and i made a lot of bearish public pronouncements about tesla that turned out to be wrong it's very difficult to change your mind publicly and it's much easier just to settle into confirmation bias but the problem with this is you end up missing out on a lot of money and so for this reason i would say people ask me if they should follow peter schiff i think he's basically made himself a laughingstock at this point especially with this latest tweet just totally misunderstanding why gold has uh has value as a monetary good let me know your questions comments in the comment section below and if you found this video helpful be sure to hit that subscribe and like button hit the notification bell as well so you'll be notified when i post my next video thanks a lot for watching and i'll see you in the next video
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