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엔비디아 실적(분기·반기 매출/이익 급증, 마진 고수준)과 재무구조(무부채 수준 아님, 인수 위한 부채 증가)를 분석. 주가는 PER 약 90배로 고평가이나 성장세 지속 전망. 주가가 약 460달러 추세선까지 조정 시 진입 고려, 현 시세 추격 매수는 신중. 배당 여력과 AMD 등 반도체 ETF 노출도 언급.
다듬은 글
what is going on investors back again time to take a look at nvidia corporation ticker symbol nvda they just reported earnings after the bell we'll jump into those we'll take a look what happened in the quarter revenue-wise profit-wise we'll jump into the stock chart take a look at what's going on there so this is a 300 billion dollar market cap we see after hours it's selling off just slightly they're about to begin their conference call we'll see if there's any news on that sometimes that moves the stock maybe up or down just a little bit we see during regular trade it traded off just a little bit as the general market kind of sold off today the p e ratio on this is pretty hefty at 90.
the dividend is pretty small but they do have a dividend so that's kind of interesting when we jump into these earnings we'll actually see that they have tons of room to increase this if they want to so it'll be interesting to see over the years if you're a long-term holder of nvidia if this dividend becomes a little bit more of the reason why you might hold the stock obviously we've had a monster run like a lot of stocks but especially kind of in the chip space technology space you've had a monster run in these stocks over the last two years and maybe you can call this a flex or whatever it's only three shares but i am long full disclosure i am long nvidia shares again i bought three shares back in november of 2018.
if you look at this chart it's right in this time frame when this stock i remember they reported earnings or they did something in the stock tanked and i bought shares and you can see i paid 161 dollars per share i am up 196 in uh you know just under two years time frame so people ask me all the time why don't i invest in plug power why don't i invest in uh space why don't i invest in neo stock why don't i invest in some of these risky stocks well guys you can pick up blue chip stocks like nvidia when they dip and then have nearly 100 percent year-over-year returns on a stock like this why do i need to take my risk with uh some of these more speculative names can you do well with plug power can you do well with neo can you do well with nicola sure if you buy it right i'm not saying you can't make money there but my style is more buying these for sure blue chip names that do pay a dividend as well pick them up when they fall out of favor for whatever reason you have to be very patient you have to time it correctly but if you're able to do that take a look at the gains that are possible i turned 161 dollars in per share that was only 485 that is now worth over 1400 at today's market price so and you can see some of the other gains i've had on these other stocks again i focus on buying blue chip stocks because they tend to go up almost as quickly as the riskier ones and you're risking far less of your capital so let's jump into in video so that was lesson number one lesson number two let's jump into nvidia and take a look what's going on here we got three months ended here july over july here and then we've got six months ended here july over july here and so man explosive growth quarter over quarter here we went from 2.6 billion all the way up to close to 3.9 the cost of revenue is relative you know this is a pretty high margin business i would say this is you know close to 50 margins it's actually a little bit higher than that so you've got nice high margins at nvidia and those hold true even for the six month period as well look at the six-month gross we went from 2.9 up to 4.3 so this is a company that is firing on all cylinders right now and so operating expenses we see r d just ticked up a little bit we've got selling general administrative that actually ticked up a lot for the six month ended not quite as much but we are seeing a slight acceleration in the expenses but this is a company that can afford it because you see here we paid 1.6 to net out 2.2 and so our income from operations is 651 million dollars for the quarter that fares fairly favorably to the previous period where we made 571.
for the six month end it all looks to be looking good because we made 9 29 in the previous period and then this period we made we're at 1.6 billion halfway through the year so that's a solid solid so if you want to annualize this out we've got a you know about 3 billion dollars worth of i guess you can call it almost net income we come down here to net income down here we got 1.5 billion or net incomes really here 1.5 billion if you want to annualize that out you're at 3 billion and so you've got a 300 billion market cap you see and you're paying you know again close to 100 times earnings for a company like this but they are growing very rapidly on the top line and they're also growing their their gross profit is pretty high as well and so you see here from an earnings per share basis we had 99 cents earnings in the quarter and we had 247 for the six months the only reason why i want to bring that up is because of the dividend notice we only pay 64 cents per share for the entire year and so this is a company that has tons and tons of room if they want to attract investors into their shares by increasing the dividend gosh they could like they could uh quadruple they could quintuple this dividend and have plenty and plenty of money left over to operate the business so that is a good sign we see shares are increasing slightly but very this is relatively minimal uh dilution in my opinion uh kind of quarter over quarter let's jump down to the balance sheet let's see how well capitalized they are now so we see cash and cash equivalents at first glance you go oh man this is so this is back in january and this is the current month so about six months later so we had 10 point call it 11 billion and then boom what happened we're down to 3.2 well take a look marketable securities this is cash as well this is basically like treasuries uh bonds things like that just really safe notes or whatever well it looked like all they did was move some money into there so it looks like they're just parking some cash for a short period of time maybe they deploy that in another way because when you add this up you're at about 10.9 billion dollars which is almost exactly where we were back in january everything else looks pretty darn good our inventory is ticked up a little bit so that's kind of interesting maybe they're well positioned for the the holiday quarter or maybe some refresh cycle whatever it is with their clients uh maybe there's some new computers some new gaming things that are coming out they're definitely big in gaming and that's probably their number one revenue driver at the moment so inventories have ticked up so that could be a positive sign it could be a negative as well but i'll take it at first glance as a positive that they're going to be able to deliver the chips and the products to their clients to their customers uh to drive more revenue growth in the next quarter we see assets actually ticked up uh nicely over the last year or so we have some of it is or most of it i would say is probably tied up into this goodwill they acquired i think it's melanox i think uh and that's this is the first they actually closed that deal i think in the quarter and so that's where some of this goodwill comes from and so you can discount this maybe a little bit all things being considered it's pretty uh even on the asset side now long-term liability side we do have some long-term debt here and that actually ticked up quite a bit so it's interesting i think what they did is because our cash didn't tick up but our debt went from you see here 2 billion up to 6.9 billion my guess is they finance their acquisition in the quarter through a debt raise which is probably not a bad thing because the interest rate that they borrow at is probably low low low single digits and the growth rate of the company that they acquired is probably in the mid teens and so it's a it's good trade-off they're going to borrow a little bit of money at a low interest rate and acquire a company that's growing at like a mid teens kind of valuation type thing and so i think it's a good trade-off and also you see they have 10 billion dollars in cash and they're not really doing a lot with it because we can see over the last six months they barely touched their cash and so they have plenty of coverage here on this long-term debt everything else i mean look at this we only got 11 billion dollars in in liabilities total liabilities 11 billion dollars and that's about what we have in cash let alone all the other assets that they have this is a company from a balance sheet perspective is as crystal clean as you will find it's another reason why the stock has been kind of on a monster move is because it's such a clean balance sheet compared to maybe some of the other ones in the space maybe like an intel uh and maybe some maybe not amd but some of the other ones in the space so this is a very very healthy chip maker and they're they're certainly on the forefront of a lot of the technologies that are being adopted now from a cash flow perspective everything looks really good we went from 1.6 in the previous period all the way up to 2.5 that's for six months ended we see here this is where we purchased the marketable security so i showed you on the balance sheet where they had where their quote-unquote cash went down most of it got dumped into these marketable securities as we see here and then here we see the acquisition of the business so you see this is where they acquired a company they obviously didn't do that in the previous period but they did it here for 7.1 billion dollars we see here they issue debt here so we we issued five billion dollars in debt i would guess most of it went to kind of cover this acquisition or kind of finance that into a certain extent so we did have some cash flow you know you see cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the period we see that it went up considerably most of it had to do with the fundraising we did with the debt cost now from a chart perspective this tr this stock has been on a runaway train yeah you know if you want to try to catch this stock i would maybe try to wait until it pulls it almost looks like it wants to maybe roll over a little bit here i would wait until it pulls back close i put in a trend line here i'm not saying this is the most accurate trend line or if you need to to use this one you could probably even bump it up if you want to like bump it up into here get it really tight up there you can see when this stock pulls back to this trend line it tends to want to keep going and so at the current price where we're at if we pull back to 460 which is i guess about uh you know it's about 20 off where we're at in the current share price if stock if the stock were to trade back there i would consider that an uh interesting entry point if you want to get in there because this stock has just the top is blown off of it okay there's no and you see here on the macd this thing has been trading high and just has stayed elevated okay partly because of the industry that they're in cloud computing is so hot gaming is so hot just being the on the cutting edge of the chips that nvidia is a part of the graphics chips all the cloud computing chips it's just a hot hot sector and so to think you're gonna see one of these big dips like you did two years ago i don't necessarily think that's in the cards anytime soon but if it does pull back to this trend line that's what i would wait for at the current price it's 460.
now obviously if a few weeks go by the stock's gonna keep trading up this trend line's going to go up and so maybe maybe see we have a little gap here i could see maybe like yeah 468 if you want to get a little aggressive with it 470 if you own some amd maybe you own some intel maybe you own some of the other chip makers maybe you jump in here in this the other option is find the chip etf find one that has exposure i think you want exposure to nvidia and amd those are the two that i think are really firing on all cylinders i would try to find the etf that has the biggest exposure to both of those if you don't want to directly buy into say amd or nvidia so that's in video for you for me the quarter looked great the balance sheet is fantastic the valuation has gotten a little stretched like most stocks uh if you can look past that you can close your eyes and buy this one if you want personally i am waiting for a little bit healthier pullback so that's in video for you hopefully you guys enjoyed this one we'll be back again soon with another video hit that subscribe button if you like what we're doing here we'll be back again soon good luck with your investments
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