저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
TSMC 3분기 실적이 시장 예상을 상회했고, 8~9월 월매출 급증(33%, 40%)과 4분기 가이던스(260~269억 달러, 컨센서스 250억 달러 상회)로 AI 수요 강세가 확인됐다. 순이익 약 100억 달러, 영업현금흐름 9개월 376억 달러 등 재무가 견고하다. 기술적으로 장기 추세 상단에 근접해 일부 차익실현 가능성을 언급했고, 175 부근 조정 시 매수 의견을 제시했다.
다듬은 글
the conventional wisdom about investing particularly investing in individual stocks is that it's very complicated that it's very hard and that the average person and the average retail investor should stick to passive investing and give your money to big giant companies like Fidelity and black rock and Charles Schwab and let their people that are supposedly and allegedly smarter than you handle your money dump your money into a index collect a management fee for basically doing nothing and earn a very healthy living on the back of you as a retail investor you're told time and time again that the vast majority of retail investors actually don't make money especially the ones that invest in individual stocks but I'm here to show you an example today if you knew where to look if you knew where to pay attention and this is not like trying to pick your fantasy football running back for the weekend it's not trying to pick against the spread in that hotly contested college football matchup this weekend either this is actually far simpler than that there's also a notion that Wall Street all the information is already known you as the retail investor are at a disadvantage but I'm going to show you that none of that happens to be true and it all is under the context of Taiwan semiconductor reporting their Q3 earnings before the Bell today after reporting those Q3 numbers shares of Taiwan semiconductor which have been on a tear over the past month over 24% higher over the past 6 months 49% higher and year-to dat up a shocking 100% higher just over the past 5 days we've seen shares climb 9% including today's rise of roughly 12% before the market actually closed if you knew where to look with Taiwan semiconductor you could have easily predicted this and at the very least earned 12% over the past 24 hours and certainly higher percentages over the past couple of weeks and months as Taiwan semiconductor and the semiconductor industry has basically been giving Clues on what to look for a couple of months ago back in September in fact just a month ago the company announces their monthly sales totals one of the few companies that do this occasionally you'll see it out of automobile companies you see it from Costco you see it from a handful of companies they actually give you an update on their sales total so when the company reports earnings it actually really shouldn't be that big of a surprise so you'd be shocked when the company said back in September that their August sales surged over 33% year-over-year they followed this this was just a couple of weeks ago in fact it was just last week we talked about this on our semiconductor show on our Equity Empire Channel links down in the description below if you want to keep up to date on the semiconductor industry we talked about how last week Taiwan semiconductor announced that September Revenue surged nearly 40% year-over-year so in backto back months the company announced that their sales are skyrocketing 33% last month 40% this month so it should come as no surprise that Taiwan exports which rely largely on semiconductors notched a new record high back in September as well all of this data was available to you if you knew where to look Taiwan exports skyrocketing the company confirming that their sales are skyrocketing should have meant there was Zero surprise that the company announced their Q3 earnings before the bell and they beat Expectations by about $210 million now the expectations were elevated to show 30 6% year-over-year Revenue growth coming in at 23.5 billion obviously a lot of that growth has to do with AI demand as that continues to boost the outlook for Taiwan semiconductor going forward yes the Q3 results were a beat of expectations the expectations were closer to 23.3 billion again the company came in at $ 23.5 billion we'll show that to you from a revenue perspective and show you why this company has such a dominant position when when it comes to fabricating any type of chips particularly the ones on the Leading Edge and used for AI but I think what is sending the stock even higher is the Q4 guidance and and and trust me there's almost no one to believe that if the September or August sales figures for Taiwan semiconductor were really strong then that followed with October and then that followed with earnings basically confirming all of that today nobody is shocked that the Q4 guidance is well above expectations in fact the revenue estimate put forth by Taiwan sem 26.1 to 26.9 billion the estimates over on Wall Street was for just $25 billion so they're a billion dollar just on their guidance and again remember companies give guidance with the intention to come over and above that in the future you see the highend even the highend estimate for the Q4 for Taiwan semiconductor $25.8 billion and I just showed you the company has got for 26 to 26.9 the only people that are shocked by this are the AI doom and gloomer the permes the people have been trying to tell you not to invest in the stock market or that it's been overvalued or that printing money and inflation and all these types of things is going to slow down the stock market they may be right at a certain time but if you listen to them over the past year you've missed 100% Grain on Taiwan semiconductor and if you listen to them over the 5 years you've missed out on a 300 100% rise and a chance to change your life financially so the revenue estimates for the Q4 are absolutely Sensational for Taiwan semiconductor so we've got to expect that the q1 and Q2 As you move into next year if Q4 is going to be $26 billion you've got that Blackwell ramp and you've got other products in the pipeline that'll likely push the subsequent revenues even higher than the current estimates for Taiwan semiconductor that is all contributing to the stock Rising by about 12% but like I said at the jump this was all very very well telegraphed by this company now let's jump over to these financial statements because these are an absolute thing of beauty we have that 25 or excuse me 23.5 billion worth of net revenue gross profit coming in close to 13.6 billion your income from operations a staggering 11.1 billion we also got confirmation if we needed any that Taiwan sem will not buy Intel's Foundry and the reason why they don't have to do that is because their current business is so strong and their relationship with the companies that manufacture with them including Apple Nvidia AMD and many others is so strong look at these types of profit numbers you pull all the way down to a net income number at right at $10 billion so folks I I can't just emphasize how strong these financials are not only that if we want to throw Intel into this conversation how big of a mountain that they have to climb not only a mountain we're talking about a mountain range that Intel has to climb just to be in the same conversation of Taiwan semiconductor because folks off of 23.5 billion worth of Revenue almost half of it flows down to net income this is the reason why this stock is worth $840 billion which I think is close to eight times the size of an Intel at this point is because the financials are absolutely Sensational now the company with those great financial numbers are able to continue to invest in its business not only in its home country of Taiwan but also now here in the United States as well and globally for the past nine months this gives you a statement of cash flows we had operating cash flows coming in at 37.6 billion dollar again this is for 9 months this is not just for a single quarter that would be Mega cap Tech type numbers but needless to say for a manufacturing company this is off the charts in fact it is some of the best you'll ever see now the company has to invest in these foundaries which are very complex very large and very very extraordinary Feats of engineering but look at this for the past N9 months company had to spend and I say just $18.5 billion on property plant and equipment that is offset obviously by the fact that they had $37 billion dollar worth of operating cash flow so yes it's a staggering number that they invest in property plant and Equipment but is offset largely by their operating cash flows it gives the companies to do things like paying cash dividends to the tune of about 8 billion over the past n months these financials are absolutely Sensational both from an operating perspective also from a cash flow perspective it is also the reason why no offense to Intel we are certainly rooting for them and they certain have a chance to compete but right now Taiwan semiconductor is the Michael Jordan of The Foundry and manufacturing of chips business and Intel is like a kid in eighth grade who's just learning how to dribble now moving over to the technical chart it is near the top of the range and here we are very very close to a multi- deade long top of the trend this is typically when Taiwan semiconductor reverses if you're holding shares of Taiwan semic ctor like I am and like I publicly recommended to our subscribers so sometimes last year you're probably sitting on a 100% or more gain this is the area where you do think about trimming some profits if that what you want to do if you want to continue to hold you have to expect there will be some pullbacks in Taiwan so to the first area where it is interesting is probably 175 obviously further back if that materializes we'll be pounding the table here to invest in this stock considering the financials and considering the competition is nowhere close to where Taiwan semiconductor is this is an elite elite level company but I showed you today that they literally telegraphed exactly what was going to happen in this quarter they more or less telegraphed what was going to come in their guidance Wall Street as usual is actually a step behind so if you are the belief that Wall Street is ahead of the game they know all these things it's a Wall Street casino and you have no chance you're actually fooling yourself Wall Street is consistently behind the game consistently behind the trend that is why a stock like this despite all of the clues and evidence that they were going to do this is up over 12% today and really year to date up over 80% that is because Wall Street is just picking up that this stock is a winner folks that was the show today we'll probably be back I think later today we got Netflix so be sure to tune in subscribe if you haven't liked the video if you can and good luck with your Investments
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