저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론(MU) 3분기 실적 발표 직후 시간외 약 8% 하락 상황을 분석. 3분기 매출 68.1억 달러(예상 상회), 4분기 가이던스 76억 달러±2억 달러로 컨센서스 부합/소폭 상회 수준. HBM(고대역폭메모리) 수요가 AI 성장 동력이며 SK하이닉스는 내년까지 품절, 삼성은 HBM 공급 차질 언급. 이익 개선은 뚜렷하나 설비투자가 영업현금흐름을 상회해 잉여현금흐름은 여전히 음수. 기술적으로 장기 채널 상단이며 약 100달러 부근 눌림을 매수 관심 구간으로 제시.
다듬은 글
shares of Micron are dropping in the after hours if the company reported their Q3 earnings I'm seeing a drop about 8% we'll get over to the technical chart here very soon talk about if this is a company that continues to pull back in price can you step in here and buy and do you want to step in here and buy we'll have to look at it fundamentally as well we'll take a look at the Q3 numbers we'll also take a look at the Q4 Outlook at well which came in maybe According to some analysts a little bit soft based on where the expectations were we'll talk about about one of this company's leading growth drivers as we head into next calendar year and that is high bandwidth memory what is high bandwidth memory you ask we'll talk about that certainly going to be a big growth driver for the company in the AI space and then we'll come over here and look at this fundamentally take a look at how we've transformed the financials of this company just over the last year and even quarter over quarter heading in a very strong Direction speaking of strong the valuation on this one over 133 times forward earning I tell you what they better deliver results and when they come up just a little bit short we do see Wall Street punishing the company at least in the after hours now Revenue came in in the Q3 at $ 6.81 billion that beat expectations which were closer to about 6.7 billion but that doesn't give you the full story The Q4 Outlook came in at $7.6 billion plus or minus $200 million so you're getting to the upside closer to about 7.8 7.9 billion the consensus was for about 7.58 or about $7.6 billion I saw a lot of analysts expecting a number actually on a guide closer to8 that's still going to be 89% growth going forward and certainly with the elevated multiple that they have on their earnings you better continue to grow at a strong growth rate and we're expected to grow at near triple digits or just under triple digits really for the next two quarters and then you're going to flatten out or kind of smooth out to 40 and 50% growth as you lap these bigger numbers and a lot of that has to do with the fact that you're having a huge Trend in Ai and certainly the data center as well we'll talk about on device here with high bandwidth memory and so what high bandwidth memory is is if you look at any of these high-end AI chips made by Nvidia certainly also AMD Intel you have the logic chips usually in the middle and then surrounding that is the highb bandwidth memory and these things are capable and required to run a lot of the inference and certainly the training absolutely the training of these large language model without this High Ben with memory Innovation you probably wouldn't even have the innovations that you've seen from Nvidia you've got SK Hein certainly being a big time player in high bandwidth memory Micron coming on strong you also have Samsung as well who's had troubles getting their product on some of these bill of materials but Micron is expecting billions of dollars of high bandwidth memory sales through 2025 as SK hyx I think is sold out through next year you've only got hundreds of millions of dollars in Revenue really over the past 12 months so as long as the AI Trend continues to hum along well micron's got a Tailwind there and I don't think there's any reason to expect it to not do that because if you think about it our lives are just surrounded by more and more data and these training models and all the types of large language model development that's going on needs more and more data eventually they're going to be doing videos and Audi and you know multi-trillion dollar parameter type things and now you're moving on device as well we saw Apple several weeks ago announced different types of on device AI processing that's going to create Tailwind demand for more and more memory and obviously Micron being one of the leaders and one of the Premier manufacturers of memory well certainly going to benefit them now speaking of benefiting look at your Revenue coming in$ 6.81 billion again that was 81% 82% growth year over-year whereas last year look at you had negative margins they were basically giving away the memory for free and that is why they put this second quarter in here to show you even quarter over quarter you're seeing really a lot of strength with this company 5.8 up to $6.8 billion look at your gross margins from 1 billion all the way up to $1.8 billion what's exciting about this company is a lot of this Revenue growth is going to flow all the way down to operating profit that's because your research and development fees they've more or less kind of flattened out even when you have negative margins they're not far from when you grow your revenues by 80% here's even more exciting your sgna or your selling General administrative costs year-over-year again I told you they grew their revenue 81% over the last year but look at this they barely had to spend more on selling General administrative from 219 all the way to 291 that's going to flow a lot of money down to operating income last year you lost 1.7 billion dollar I'm shocked this stock over the last year is up just 117% I can't believe I just said that but these type of improvements year-over-year obviously getting priced into the stock even quarter over quarter look at this from 191 to 719 and this is something that has just turned the corner because look at this we get a 9mon view the first quarter must have been terrible over at Micron because look even for the full year despite two quarters in a row where you're doing 191 and then you're up to 719 you've still lost operating profit side 218 million so these last two quarters are fantastic and what Wall Street is more or less pricing in right now is these next couple of quarters plus or minus something on the guidance side they're going to be great and they're going to flow a lot of profits and revenues down to the bottom line of this company now from the balance sheet perspective this company is not just a chip designer man they design these things and they're manufacturing this is a combination of kind of an old school chip company that used to design and manufacture this company's doing some manufa ufacturing as you see their property plant and Equipment balance sheet line to the tune of $38 billion you'll see that when we get to cash flows as well so they're not as great as you see we you certainly with like an Nvidia but also like an AMD as well cash and cash C company actually has done a really nice job they have a fair amount of cash and I was actually surprised this a company we haven't looked at maybe in a while I was surprised they don't have a ton of long-term debt certainly compared to cash certainly compared to the amount of property PLA and Equipment they have also the Outlook going forward really really clean now unfortunately their cash flows is kind of split here we get a 9mon view on the cash flows we pull down a negative net income number I mean things have really turned around over the last two quarters for micron now given that they're a manufacturer they're going to have a lot of depreciation amortization that's their big addback on their cash flows and look at this over the last nine months $5.1 billion of operating cash flow last year it was only and I say only $1.3 billion and it's only because again this is a manufacturer okay they're involved in that chip pack I think they've got a plant in Idaho and I think New York City at least here in the United States they've obviously got a big presence in Taiwan as well $1.3 billion of cash flow last year on a 9-month basis not going to cut it we had to spend $6.2 billion on your property plan equipment that's leveled out or normalized maybe you could say over the last year to 5.2 but it still exceeds our operating cash flow so this is kind of the risk going forward that you get a little little bit of slowdown here or SK hyx or Samsung or maybe even a fourth Memory Maker there's not really I don't think four but that they capture all the business or you know the margins compress and you're not able to capture all this in operating cash flows that really out seeds kind of the investment that you have to do in terms of the fabrication facilities so they're not generating a lot of what I would call free cash flow which is operating cash flow minus kind of these Capital expenditures in fact we're still negative but again the market is more or less kind of pricing in this growth going forward and they're looking at what we've seen over the last two quarters and they're assuming our research development is not going to go up by a whole bunch our sgna certainly not going to go up by a whole bunch and we're going to be able to maintain those margins because SK hyx is basically sold out and Samsung is basically kind of falling on themselves and they can't get their high bandwidth memory product working and so Micron is going to step in there and deliver a lot of that business business they're still able to pay off some debt and over the last year they burned through about a billion dollars and again if things maintain themselves and it's a big if for some people some people think this AI is in a bubble and certainly if you think that well Micron is absolutely not the stock for you but if you believe this AI Trend if you're believing in Nvidia well then you should be able to believe in Micron as well as they're basically well on their path to that Trend now I was actually surprised when I look at the stock chart we're on a weekly chart for micron and we're going back to 2008 some of you guys weren't even investing back in 2008 and I was surprised this stock is channeling absolutely beautifully now we've just set up kind of at the top of the channel I think we're in a position where this will be viewed as maybe one of these tops that we've made more recently and we're pulling out for a pullback for micron and I think we'll have one maybe right around the $100 level would be exciting for micron and you might be saying well that's crazy well in the after hours we're trading at 131 these stocks like Micron Nvidia have just simply been going up over the last year I think we see higher volatility that volatility not just to the upside but to the downside as well you get a $100 price level on Micron that's probably the first level where I'd be excited it'd be an area of support at least from a technical perspective you get a further pullback in this one you're certainly going to have some really really bad news going to be much harder to pull the trigger you get down to like 70 or 80 bucks you shave off about half the price on this one but that also obviously a buying opportunity as again this long-term Trend there's been a lot of bumps and starts and stops in the memory business over the past 15 16 years or so this company seems to always be able to come out on top I think this AI Trend and the trend for more and more memory on device in the data center certainly on these AI gpus as well I don't think that's slowing down anytime soon and certainly a company like Micron is is going to capture a lot of that business and fundamentally they've done a very nice job with controlling their cost on R&D and sgna would give me the confidence on a further pullback to pull the trigger on Micron hopefully you guys enjoyed today's video we'll be back again I think Nikes tomorrow and then Friday as well good luck with your Investments
Comments 0