저자: 미상 · 외국인
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브로드컴 2분기 실적이 컨센서스를 상회했고 VMware 인수로 인프라 소프트웨어 매출이 급증. 10:1 액면분할(7/15 예정) 발표 후 시간외 주가 12% 상승. 인수부채 증가에도 CEO의 비용절감 능력을 높이 평가. 분할 전 소수점 주식 현금화 위험 때문에 분할 전 매수를 권유하며, 차트상 상단 채널 부근이라 신규 매집보다 이익실현 구간으로 봄.
다듬은 글
one of nvidia's biggest competitors in the semiconductor space just announced a 10 for one stock split do you buy broadcom before or after the split we answer those questions and more on today's show what is going on investors hopefully guys are doing well out there we got another semiconductor giant doing a 10 for one stock split after the company announced their Q2 earnings we got a lot to talk about with broadcom because many of you might not even know much about this this company the company announced their Q2 earnings they also gave guidance for the rest of the year the final two quarters of the Year came in over expectations you might not know but Google relies almost exclusively on their own silicon otherwise known as a TPU a slight alternative to a GPU that Nvidia sells Google has powered their data centers and a lot of their own internal projects including their search engines their maps and even features here on YouTube using the CPU which Google takes a lot of credit for but actually broadcom is behind a lot of that design also we've got to talk about VMware now wholly owned by broadcom and you will see when we get over to the financials you had a massive bump in infrastructure software in terms of sales that obviously is due to that large acquisition for VMware so you get a little diversity with broadcom not only on the semiconductor solutions that they offer but also infrastructure software we'll go through the numbers take a look at the financials how they've changed with VMware if you followed this company you know that hawan the CEO of this company runs a lean and mean operation in fact I drove by their Bay area offices and they don't look anything like the luxurious Office Buildings that you often see from Apple and meta and many of these other companies including Google as well they leun run a me lean and mean operation over there and I tell you what you do see it from a financial perspective we'll have to talk about about that look at the balance sheet how that's changed after the acquisition and then you know I'm going to love this stock chart look at this 15year uptrend and you are extending well and above the channel lines we might have to adjust those as broadcom has gone straight parabolic now the company announced those Q2 numbers after the Bell Revenue came in at 12.5 billion that was 43% growth year-over-year doesn't paint the whole story because again they bolted on that VMware acquisition over the last year that is contributing to a year-over-year beat which is not really comparable Wall Street was expecting a number closer to$ 12 billion so they did beat expectations although when you have an acquisition I would argue it probably takes 12 months for the analyst to start to catch up from a revenue perspective what's going to have investors pumped up a little bit is you have that 10 for one forward stock split that will commence on July 15th those of you that are in Nvidia or have kept tabs on Nvidia know that that company just split earlier this week on Monday so for every one share of broadcom that you own you're going to get 10 shares and subsequently like if it were happen today the share price of broadcom would be divided by 10 you're not getting any free money in a 10 for1 stock split but you are getting additional shares also might make the company more accessible as Shares are now trading over $600 in the after hours now there are some scenarios that I can think of that want you to buy this stock before the stock split and that is if you have fractional shares because occasionally and some of you might have found this out with Invidia some Brokers actually cash you out on the fractional share instead of splitting the 0.5 or the 0.2 shares that you might own of broadcom or Nvidia they actually force you to sell that creating a taxable event and also unloading shares that you may not have wanted to sell so if you have 1.5 shares of broadcom well before July 15th and again this is all broker specific some Brokers don't cash you out some do before July 15th I would figure that out and if you had 1.5 shares of broadcom you might want to buy that extra half shares I've done this in the past I've owned Apple before a split I think I had 0.9 shares of Apple so of course I went and bought 0.1 shares of apples so I was not cashed out of shares that I at the time didn't want to sell now Q3 Q4 Outlook essentially we got fiscal 2020 four remaining last two quarters coming in at $51 billion that would be our full year revenue for broadcom the consensus was .28 billion or 40% growth again that 40% growth not all organic growth some of that or a bulk of that is VMware Revenue that is now recognized by broadcom the high-end estimate though was for f 51.78 billion so there's a good chance that broadcom comes in towards that high-end estimate it also Begins the question on when you start looking out till 2025 hawan the CEO of broadcom very notoriously kind of under promises overd delivers so we have to wonder if the 7 57.4 two billion for next year is a little conservative or even more conservative than normal as that would be about 14% growth my guess is a broadcom and the AI industry continues to hum along you're probably going to approach closer to maybe 20% growth and that would bring in the high-end estimate at 61.6 6 billion again what you're buying when you're buying broadcom is a company with a large portfolio of assets summon Telco summon other parts modems all those types of things but also custom silicon custom gpus AI data center stuff so this is absolutely an AI company they also obviously acquired VMware and you are going to see almost a splitting of Revenue your semiconductor Solutions this is your custom silicon not all AI but some $7.2 billion last quarter it was 6.8 so just 6 point of growth over the last year certainly not Nvidia like but your infrastructure software boosted by that VMware acquisition up 175% over the last year 1.9 billion all the way to 5.3 so you're actually getting a pretty Diversified company and we'll talk about that here in a second once your operating expenses start to normalize here they should churn out a fair amount of net income and profits over and above what they're already doing your net revenue came in at 12.5 billion we talked about how that was 43% growth year-over-year but it's not comparable last quarter you did about 12 billion back in April again not really comparable that's why they have this middle common 8.8 billion but that's before VMware total cost of Revenue coming in at $4.7 billion last quarter it was $4.6 here's your gross margin 73 up to 78 these margin continue to improve as you have Synergy as you have people that are unfortunately laid off teams of VMware are merged with the teams over at broadcom look at your research development up from 23 up to just 24 selling General administrative this is what hawan is known to just slash and bird notice before they had VMware they spent just $438 million on nearly $9 billion in sales this is a guy that doesn't believe in paying a lot of sales commiss commissions and having a big sales staff and notice over the last just the last couple of months you've Whitted it down from 1.6 billion down to 1.3 I bet as we move forward in subsequent quarters this is a number that's probably going to get under a billion do they have some restructuring charges obviously they're laying people off severances all those types of things and some amortization of those assets that they acquired you had about a billion dollars there hit the balance sheet so these are things that are likely not to recur into next year and so you have to factor that into your valuation and certainly investors are as they're powering the stock to an alltime high they realize that these operating expenses particularly on the sgna line going to continue to decrease they'll continue to see Topline growth the gross margins are almost baked in from a software perspective your operating expenses are going to stay flat if not continue to move down so that's going to increase your operating income as we move forward in sub quarters it went from 21 to about $3 billion net income went from 13 all the way up to 2.1 again this is negatively impacted though by some restructuring charges and other acquisition related things now it did blow up the balance sheet you had about $17 billion in cash in October of last year that's actually cash and receivables this year it's closer to 14 billion dollar move down to long-term debt this is where you really see it 37 billion oh all the way up to $71 billion I tell you what you get a lower interest rate environment it helps companies like this continue to bolt on more and more Acquisitions so this company carrying a lot of long-term debt but obviously they have a lot of visibility and a lot of confidence in their long-term operating cash flows which came in in the most recent quarter at $4.6 billion it's not as good as the 4.8 that we put up in February as it appears to me that potentially maybe you have customers of VM that are renewing kind of in that January month and so you have kind of an influx in cash that you maybe can recognize as a receivable and so in this quarter doesn't look as good again it's not necessarily comparable to the February quarter but more or less you're staying in that 4.5 4.6 billion of operating cash flow on a quarterly business you notice $25 billion that's when you close that VMware acquisition that's where obviously a lot of that long-term debt got bolted on as well from a shareholder perspective other than the 10 for one stock split you do have the payment of dividends here as well they continue to pay down the debt and also you have share rep purchases over at broadcom overall you have to be comfortable with this company taking on a mountain of debt to combine companies and then generate operating cash flow over the next several years in order to not only pay down that debt pay dividends increase profits and increase efficiencies but I tell you what there is no one there is no one in the business that I'd rather have as CEO than the CEO of this company he is a ruthless Cost Cutter he does not care and that's exactly the kind of person that you want in charge would you want to work at broadcom probably not but would you want to invest in broadcom based on Hawk Tan's track record I would say absolutely and here's proof of it he's been in charge of this company for the tenure of this uptrend and here we are blasting off to the top of a channel way up and above I think you could probably move the channel up here these top of the channel moves occasionally you can hover along here wouldn't surprise me if you're able to kind of hover and channel towards the top of the channel like we did from really June of 15 to 2017 these are areas where I'm not really excited about accumulating stocks like this these are areas where you're taking profits and I tell you what if you're taking profits in these stocks and they continue to move higher no one's really had a bad day taking a profit and that is why you buy stocks is to watch them go up and to sell them and then to take that cash and go do something you want now speaking of cash in the after hours broadcom after announcing very very good earnings also very very solid guidance also nothing in the financials makes you concerned about this company certainly one of the leaders as it relates to AI data centers that a lot of investors are just catching up to the story and now you've got a 10 for one stock split shares of broadcom up over 12% in the after hours passing the 1,00 675 Mark if you have fractional shares of broadcom and you don't want to be Force sale of them I'd probably accumulate shares before the stock split everyone else can probably wait and see what happens over the next month folks that was broadcom we'll be back later this week good luck with your Investments
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