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브로드컴은 3개월 전 제시한 3조 달러 잠재력이 유효하다고 주장. 2025년 1분기 매출 149.2억 달러(전년비 24.7%), AI 매출 41억 달러(77% 성장). 2027년 AI 서비스 가능 시장(SAM) 600~900억 달러 재확인, 신규 하이퍼스케일러 4곳 추가 언급. VMware 소프트웨어 마진 약 92%, 영업비용 감소와 현금흐름 개선 강조. 중국 수출통제 영향 없다는 경영진 발언 인용. 주가 약 200달러 부근에서 매수 후 보유 권유.
다듬은 글
three months ago I said broadcom had the potential to be a$3 trillion Semiconductor Company some time has passed we've had deep seek we've got a new president we've got other things going on in the world do I still think broadcom presents the best opportunity in semiconductors that's over Nvidia that is over AMD that is over every other Semiconductor Company we'll talk about that on today's show we'll be talking about broadcom the fact that they announced their q1 earnings after the Bell they also gave us guidance for the Q2 from the company how does that measure up with the expectations set by Wall Street we'll go through the different financials because oh after all this is a company with an 8 billion semiconductor business but also has an infrastructure software business running at a quarterly Revenue rate of $6.7 billion that was 47% growth year-over-year they all also said on the conference call that it was running at over 90% gross margins we'll talk about the business we'll take a look at the conference call a lot of things said on the conference call in fact the shares moved much higher as hawan was more or less singing love songs to Wall Street shares have wobbled between up 10 to 15% in the after hours we'll talk about this stock also technically what is going on investors hopefully guys are doing well out there broadcom up over 33% over the past year but shares have slipped down about 22% year to date as the broader markets are in selloff mode Revenue came in the most recent quarter about $15 billion $14.92 billion to be exact that was 24.7% growth year-over-year it also beat Expectations by about $330 million the company gave you guidance of about 14.6 billion the previous quarter the upcoming quarter revenues are expected to be at about 14.9 billion and Wall Street was expecting a number closer to about 14 4.73 billion dollars the high end was closer to 16 A5 these will get adjusted over the next several weeks maybe even this next month or so company should come north of $15 billion in terms of Revenue the company also held a conference call that had very pleasing guitar music before the conference call starts a good alternative to the elevator music most iies play probably see how I have spent many years of my life probably waiting for these conference calls to begin now semiconductor Revenue grew 11% AI Revenue grew 77% to $4.1 billion in Revenue in the most recent quarter it's not about this quarter it's not even about the upcoming quarter it's about 26 27 28 and beyond for broadcom so there is some risk that demand doesn't come through we'll talk about that here in a second now they are saying that they are taping out the first 2 nanometer xpu just to give you some jargon xpu is basically like a custom GPU think nvidia's GPU but we are going to call them xpu as that is what broadcom calls them 2 nanometer is just simply the latest process node being offered by Taiwan semiconductor so they're saying they're Taping that out which is basically kind of an industry term for just getting that ready you're literally kind of actually taping it out and that should be in production I wouldn't say relatively soon but probably by the end of this year I would assume three hyperscaler customers when you say the word hyperscaler it means Google Amazon Microsoft probably Oracle meta could probably be thrown in there as well and they are going to scale to 1 million xpu clusters which means they're going to have a million of these things running their processors what shot the stock up higher was the fact that the company reiterated 60 to 90 B million dollar worth of serviceable addressable Market or Sam by 2027 so the company said this on the last call and this is when broadcom shares really shot up they were like 160 170 bucks and then boom they shot up all the way to $250 after the company said Yeah by 2027 we'll have $60 90 billion of serviceable Revenue and everybody was like wow that is absolutely incredible and so as time has kind of moved on from that people are starting to question is this still the case company says yes it is still the case and then they say that they have four additional hyperscaler customers two were known last quarter two more have joined on board so now you have four customers that have selected broadcom to develop their next Generation xus currently you have three we know of one in particular Google and you have two others that will likely contribute to the $ 6090 billion these four additional customers are actually not a part of the60 to9 billion guidance once he said that on the conference call broadcom shares shot up an extra 5% and so people are like wow this is incredibly bullish they talked about the gross margins on the software business this is primarily VMware those are up at 92% so they're having really high gross margins there a question on the conference call was wondering about the four additional customers could these be bigger than the customers that broadcom already services and they say on the conference call from broadcom that look these companies are still developing their xbus these are still these are large these are the largest companies in the world these chips take about a year and a half to develop but there is no reason why these four customers couldn't also Supply additional demand and additional units they asked broadcom about second half guidance that's what a lot of people are wondering some companies have pushed off demand into the second half maybe this quarter next quarter is not as good maybe tariffs those types of things and so some companies have pushed it off to the second half broadcom basically avoided that question saying hey we're not really speculating on the second half yet there was questions about deep seek tariffs export controls those types of things broadcom really just saying that they're focused on their R&D and they're really pushing things forward they believe that running AI on premise is going to be a growing Trend particularly when you get Sovereign governments more and more into AI they're going to obviously want have very secure guard rails around that they're not going to run that in like a public Cloud situation VMware has software and solutions for that space they were pressed again on the four additional customers that will come online potentially with xbus and what do they think the volumes will be broadcom then reiterated that look this takes about a year to kind of develop it the software companies or the hyperscalers they actually have to develop the software to run these things so it's a little bit on them broadcom develops the hardware and then those things are paired together but put bluntly broadcom says look we don't work with startups these are multi hundred billion dollar companies that we all know the names of okay so it's like Amazon Microsoft Google these types of customers meta Oracle it's going to be the big boys that's the only companies that this company tends to deal with they're not dealing with the startups out there there was questions about the China export controls and if that's impa imp acting plans and hawktown just basically said no it's not impacting anything interesting question what happens to broadcom if AI budgets kind of shift to inference which is kind of running the AI applications broadcom tends to focus or talk a lot about kind of the training and the development of these Frontier AI models and they say look there are xus that do two different things they have xbo xus that focus on inference and then they have some that focus on training the combination of these two ships add up to 60 to 90 billion serviceable addressable Market this was kind of a backdoor question about deep seek like hey if it becomes cheaper to train these models does that impact broadcom I would probably say it probably does a little bit but it probably then picks up the inference chips that have to be bought on the networking side because we tend to forget about broadcom that they also have the basically a market leading networking business and we saw when Nvidia reported their earnings that their networking business actually went down year over-year I think quarter over quarter as well and they are seeing in a trend over at broadcom that the large networks and the large clusters are all going to ethernet or ethernet networking and that is obviously big news for broadcom because they are basically the market leader there company continues to accelerate their networking development and R&D for their big clients they have a road map in place and they talked about that on the conference called that appears to be very very exciting so look even if Nvidia or AMD or one of these other companies continues to get design wins and they sell a fair share broadcom is still going to benefit because their networking solution is pretty much the premere in the industry analysts still pressing the company about those four additional customers right now the current shipments of xpu from broadcom are about 2 million units that's expected to grow to 7 million units by 2027 that's contributing to the 60 to 90 billion of serviceable addressable Revenue that the company might see will the four additional customers contribute to the 7 million and the answer to that is yes only three customers will deliver the 7 million units that broadcom is projecting by 2027 meaning these additional customers which again are some of the largest in the world and have very deep pockets would make that number much larger potentially maybe even doubling it that's me speculating but it certainly could do that compan was asked about new technologies in the networking space particularly around Optical and some copper if you're deep in the Weeds on this stuff there are some companies working on some interesting stuff there and Hawk tan basically saying the opportunity is very high particularly in Optical networking which was an interesting comment the typical mix on the AI Revenue in the semiconductor businesses is 70% for the xbus and 30% is networking interestingly enough in this quarter it was actually 40% networking so you had a heavier share of networking again reinforced by when we saw nvidia's earnings it was light on the networking so that gives you a little clue as we move on later this year Nvidia always reports their earnings before broadcom so when Nvidia reports their earnings you want to go down and drill down to that networking Revenue line and if it's light then that means it's probably heavy over at broadcom they asked hwan about m&a going forward is this company has basically built the entire business on the back of mergers and acquisition obviously in the Trump area although no company has really tested this yet but the belief is that more m&a will happen again nobody's really tested yet so we'll see what happens but they say look we're too busy with AI and VMware and they're not really thinking about it at this point and shares at that current time we're up 15% I'm seeing them drift a little bit lower we'll talk about this technically here in a moment but you've got strong revenues across the board one thing that I do want to point out is your selling General administrative cost those went from $1.5 billion last year right when the VMware acquisition was bolted onto this company and I've said time and time again that they were going to whittle this down and continue to whittle this down and here it is $1 billion the previous quarter under a billion dollars on selling General administrative they run things incredibly lean over at this company and look at your R&D even year over year it's basically flat and so you had your total operating expenses last year at $5.3 billion on just $12 billion in Revenue last quarter your operating expenses were $4.4 billion on $14 billion of Revenue now you had $15 billion in revenue and your operating expenses went down again to $3.9 billion hwan is one of the best operators in the business particularly about combining companies and that is an underrated skill in the stock market we've seen time and time again in the stock market across many many different companies AT&T being a great example IBM probably being another example where these companies try to acquire somebody and they can't integrate it the it just doesn't work this company's made it work and it's unbelievable as it starts to scale and that's what we're seeing over at this company so higher revenues lower expenses you can see what happened to operating income it ballooned to $6.3 billion last year you were just $2 billion it's just absolutely unbelievable so it's bolstering up the balance sheet balance sheet looks particularly good they still have a hefty amount of debt which they talked about on the conference call is basically uh you know not to just be super General about this but these were interest rates in the four to 5% range some of them are even south of 4% so it's not really super expensive debt and they continue to work that down when you get down to cash flows you can imagine as you dropped your operating expenses and you increased your Revenue look what happened to your cash flow from operations boom up to $6 billion that's what has people so excited about this company if the AI Trend can remain on track and this company can deliver a lot of this quote serviceable addressable Market between 60 and 90 billion and then you've got another four customers potentially coming online to make this maybe 100 150 $200 billion serviceable adjustable Market well this company is run like an efficient operating machine and so that would generate massive amounts of cash flow on top of that we haven't spent a ton of time about it this company has a software business running at 90% gross margins and again they were able to whittle down the sales in general administrative of that business unit really across the board but wow that is going to be absolutely spectacular last year $4.8 billion of operating cash flow all the way up to six billion now you're not spending a lot okay property planting equipment you drive by the office buildings of many of these silicon valleys I mean Google's headquarters is spectacular so is Apple's you drove by broadcom and you almost miss it it's very modest compared to most near trillion dollar companies in Silicon Valley uh they don't spend a lot there there's not a lot of wasteful spending here in fact they try to do their best to cut cost rather than increase them so that's great for you the shareholder they continue to pay dividends they did pause back the common stock repurchase but they did repurchase some sh shares from employees paid down some debt and those types of things just financially things are in a very very good place now with broadcom the key is they have to hit the AI Trend and the AI train has to keep going the more the AI Trend keeps going the more this company is going to benefit in the after hours you have ticked off the highs you were consolidating in these shares right here in about $200 Mark in the after hours and look if you're buying broadcom today I I would buy it and then just forget about it I get asked questions all the time about stocks this is a stock that you just buy and you forget about and you just expect that hey look in 2027 this serviceable addressable Market because there's a good percentage of investors that first of all don't understand this market number two don't think it's going to materialize and so if you believe that this is going to materialize if you believe the AI trend is going to just continue and the trend to develop your own custom xbus is going to continue well then this is the stock that you just buy and hold could it continue to move lower could you buy shares at $180 and these things trade down to $140 yeah that's possible but in 2027 2028 2029 202030 are you really going to care if you bought these shares at 200 or 150 and the Stock's worth $3 trillion which would be three times more than today probably not so I continue to load up on this one as we see volatility in the market this is literally the top AI play this is the top Semiconductor Company because you not only have the growth of their semiconductor business probably not priced into shares you have this gigantic software business that is also at this company growing at a very healthy clip this provides not only some protection to the valuation but also upside as well broadcom an absolute Premier stock if you buy individual stocks and you don't own broadcom I would probably call Fidelity call call Schwab get a financial adviser the game of individual stocks is probably not for you hopefully you enjoy today's video back again tomorrow for the Fang stock recap show good luck with your Investments
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