저자: MatthewCrowder · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오가 비트코인에 대한 입장을 바꿨으며, 발행량 한정 자산으로서 포트폴리오 편입을 시사한다고 보고, 발표자는 향후 1년 내 비트코인 10만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 전망. 달리오의 입장 변화: 과거 수년간 비트코인에 강하게 비판적이었으나, 최근 트위터 논쟁과 레딧 AMA를 거치며 비트코인과 일부 디지털 자산이 금 대체 자산으로서 포트폴리오에 자리 잡을 수 있다는 취지로 말했다고 설명. 달리오의 한계: 발표자는 달리오가 중앙은행들이 비트코인을 보유하게 될 가능성을 과소평가했다고 주장하며, 금은 실제로 공급이 제한적이지 않다는 점을 짚음. 주장의 근거: 비트코인 가격이 과거 버블 이후 신고가 근처로 회복된 점, 공급 상한(2,100만 개)이 명확한 점, 2021년 강세장이 예상되는 4년 주기를 근거로 제시. 억만장자 보유 주장: 잭 도시, 피터 틸, 윙클보스 형제, 마이클 세일러(마이크로스트래티지), 찬푸 등이 비트코인을 보유하거나 강세 입장이라고 언급하며, 투자자들이 이를 주목해야 한다고 주장. 마이크로스트래티지 자금 조달: 약 4억~5억 5천만 달러 규모의 전환사채를 0.75% 이자율로 발행해 비트코인을 매입하는 구조를 소개하며, 비트코인 상승분이 이자율을 넘으면 유리하다고 설명. 전망: 발표자는 비트코인 12개월 내 10만 달러 도달 가능성을 제시하며, 다음 해 여름 전에도 가능하다고 언급. 리스크/조건: 발표자는 투자 권유가 아니며 재무 상담이 필요하다고 명시. 다만 비트코인의 높은 변동성은 인정. 출연자 전망: 발표자는 비트코인 강세 전망 유지, 달리오는 여전히 금을 선호한다고 소개.
다듬은 글
this is matthew crowder from trader university and today i want to talk about ray dalio and how he has recently changed his stance on bitcoin this is really big for the bitcoin space because ray dalio is one of the giants he uh has been very bearish on bitcoin very negative about bitcoin for many many years which doesn't make a lot of sense because he does understand and he has taught me a lot about how the long-term debt cycle works how we're at the end of one right now and we're at the point where governments and central banks are beginning to devalue fiat currencies this is why dalio has been saying that cash is trash for a very long period of time simply because the fed and other central banks keep printing more cash which makes it less valuable but in the process drives up the price of scarce assets like stocks gold and bitcoin for some reason it may just be a an age thing uh dalio has been against bitcoin but that is all changing as of the last couple weeks so he had a a long uh back and forth on twitter saying i might be wrong about bitcoin and it's very interesting the reason that he said he might be wrong and that he was willing to reconsider everything was that bitcoin was back up close to new highs and i think this is very smart obviously dalio's a market veteran and he pays attention to price action and when you have a bubble popping as we've seen before in my previous videos if a bubble pops and then the asset comes right back up to its all-time highs as amazon did as california housing market is done etc this is a reason to wake up and take notice because true bubbles don't come back after they burst bitcoin seems to be one of those quote unquote bubbles that is coming back so ray dalio had a discussion on twitter with lots of other people he went radio silent for a couple weeks and then this just out in the last 12 hours or so in a reddit ama ask me anything someone asked him about uh bitcoin and it's very interesting i've copied and pasted here to make it a little bit easier to read it looks like he has now come full circle and believes that bitcoin has a place in investors portfolios along with some other digital currencies he doesn't mention which ones the only one he does single out is bitcoin he says i think that bitcoin and some other digital currencies presumably he means by that cryptocurrencies have over the last 10 years established themselves as interesting gold-like asset alternatives and similar similar to gold in the sense that they've limited supply and uh they're mobile gold bars of gold is not exactly mobile but it's certainly more mobile than real estate so he suggests that bitcoin could serve as a diversifier to gold and other such store of wealth assets this is what we've been talking about bitcoin as a store of value it's still very volatile it's an emerging store value in the same way that apple and amazon stocks were emerging stores of value and have now taken over that um that function the main thing he says del ray dalio says is to have some type of these assets that have limited supply and it's interesting it keeps coming back to that because bitcoin is the only one that really has a truly capped supply a supply a max supply that is credibly capped they're companies like ripple xrp cryptocurrencies like xrp which supposedly have a cap but there's a corporation behind them that can always print more bitcoin is very different it's much more decentralized there's not a corporation behind it the same goes for ethereum there's no hard cap on eth so he says that the mistake that a lot of investors make is not having enough of these limited supply assets in their portfolios and he says not enough people do that and then he concludes by saying he still prefers gold over bitcoin which we would expect given his age i believe he's 70 years older around there as far as bitcoin relative to gold have a strong preference for holding those things which central banks are going to want to hold and exchange value in when they are trying to transact i think here that dalio really underestimates how um central banks just given the game theory of the situation will be forced into bitcoin i would not be at all surprised if various central banks whether in venezuela iran north korea china some of these countries may even possibly even european countries uh other asian countries uh other central banks in south america or africa may have already started to accumulate bitcoin bitcoin still has a very small market cap these central banks can print money it doesn't make any sense for them not to have a small exposure to it especially these sort of more rogue these more rogue states like venezuela or iran and so i think he underestimates here the role that bitcoin can play as a reserve asset for central banks in the same way that gold has played this role historically so i think that's where he uh he sort of still has his blinders on he doesn't quite understand how uh bitcoin's portability and it's it's really credibly capped max supply wait gold the supply of gold is not really capped there's a lot of it under the ocean there's a lot of it in outer space very different from bitcoin where they're only 21 million bitcoin but i still think this is huge what we basically have here is another billionaire endorsing bitcoin and saying that it could be a part of people's portfolios obviously he doesn't offer investment advice i don't offer investment advice either but you have to wake up and pay attention when billionaires are buying uh are buying something and talking about it in the open and we can be almost certain at this point that dalio has begun to accumulate bitcoin given his change of mind and how he's now talking about it if you're finding this video helpful be sure to hit that subscribe button to see other videos like this now as we said billionaires have been scooping up bitcoin and everyone should ask themselves this question obviously it's not uh intended as financial advice this is a conversation you should have with your financial advisor but all these billionaires as i've been pointing out in videos over the last few months have been scooping up bitcoin is there a reason if you don't own any bitcoin do you have a good reason do you really think you know more than these bitcoins there's a lot of humility that has to come in bitcoin i first learned about bitcoin in 2011 i never bought any to hold for the long term until 2019 so it took uh it took me eight years to really understand it and this is as someone with a finance background who is living in silicon valley so it's not an easy thing but i think that it's a question that everyone needs to ask themselves especially as we move into 2021 and this very bullish period of bitcoin of bitcoin's four-year cycle if you don't own any bitcoin if you own zero we're not talking about trying to buy a whole bitcoin which is beyond many people's budget but you can buy fractional bitcoin you can buy as much as fifty dollars or a hundred dollars and so this is a really weird situation where we see all these billionaires coming out buying bitcoin telling us that they've bought bitcoin or in the process of buying bitcoin and yet there's still a lot of people who are willing to chase various stock picks uh that billionaires do so for for example if warren buffett buy something but if billionaires are buying bitcoin for some reason they don't wake up and see what they're doing even may perhaps just because bitcoin is is a kind of new exotic asset that's a little bit more difficult to figure out than regular stocks but i'll just go through quickly a couple billionaires a few billionaires off the top of my head who uh we either know own bitcoin or certainly appear to own bitcoin jack dorsey um founder of twitter the only thing that he has in his twitter bio is bitcoin obviously we know what square his other company has been doing uh in terms of moving their reserves into bitcoin as well so here's a billionaire who loves bitcoin obviously peter thiel paypal was originally intended as as a new world currency it failed at that but succeeded in um making its investors a lot of money uh peter's obviously with his libertarian background sort of a natural candidate for bitcoin and he was disclosed in 2017 that one of his vc funds one of the founders funds funds had a large position in bitcoin i don't know if they still do a couple other billionaires that are related to the facebook scene like peter the winklevoss twins who worked on very worked very early with mark zuckerberg huge bitcoin bulls saying that it's going to 500 000 per bitcoin as as a conservative target these are guys who've always been ahead of the curve whether it was with social uh social media social networking on the internet uh or crypto currencies and then obviously michael saylor the uh ceo of microstrategy that's just been buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bitcoin both personally and for his uh company microstrategy and then uh obviously chamoth as well a large bitcoin holder i believe he said in one of his interviews that he holds a million bitcoin so these are the billionaires that own bitcoin there's only uh 21 million bitcoin out there if you don't own any you've got to ask yourself what am i doing why why why don't i own any when all these billionaires are turning very bullish on it finally wanted to finish with a piece of news that's also related to michael saylor the pricing of those microstrategy convertible senior notes which i talked about in yesterday's video if you want to understand a little bit a little bit better uh but they just came out this morning and announced the interest rate on those bonds which is amazing so what he's basically doing through microstrategy which is the company he founded he is raising approximately uh 400 million dollars it looks like they're actually raising more 550 million dollars up from 400 million dollars they're selling bonds to raises cash they're selling senior convertible notes and they're using the cash mostly to buy bitcoin and this was sort of levering up the company as a sort of hybrid between a software company and a bitcoin etf but the really unbelievable thing on this is that the pricing on these notes which are they appear to be five-year notes they mature in five years is just he'll only be paying interest income of 0.75 uh percent i'm sorry the interest rate of 0.75 so less than one percent per year to borrow this huge amount of money basically if bitcoin goes up by more than 0.75 percent so more than uh if it goes up more than approximately one percent a year this will do very well he can also pay this interest to the bondholders from operating or operating cash flow or free cash flow of the company itself so this is amazing this is a rate that is lower than the the 10-year u.s treasury rate obviously this is a five-year bond so maybe we should compare it to the five-year treasury note which is a little bit below this but still this is an unbelievable unbelievable thing to be able to borrow money at such a low rate and i think this demonstrates also why we will continue to see increasing uh capital flows into bitcoin both from corporations like microstrategy and from individual billionaires like ray dalio who have figured out what's happening obviously ray daly i'm not sure if i mentioned at the beginning of the video runs the biggest hedge fund in the world bridgewater associates they obviously have a very big budget if they want to purchase bitcoin maybe they already have or if they want to add to their bitcoin position so this is amazing we're uh not even at new all-time highs and we have all these incredible developments coming so i see a very very long runway for bitcoin over the next 12 months during the most bullish part of the cycle and i think we easily get to 100 000 per bitcoin uh by the end of next year if not by next summer if you found this video helpful be sure to hit that subscribe and like button hit the notification bell if you want to be notified when i publish my next video and let me know your questions and comments in the comment section below thanks a lot for watching and i'll see you in the next video
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