저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 현재 시장은 버블 후반부로 보이며, 단기 급락 가능성이 크다. 그랜섬은 밸류에이션 지표로는 버블 정점을 가늠하기 어렵다고 지적하며, 일본 1989년 PER 65배 사례를 든다. 그는 게임스탑, 테슬라, 비트코인 등의 급등을 비합리적 투기 신호로 보고, 테슬라는 매출 20~25% 성장 대비 주가가 약 700% 올라 효율적 시장 가설과 맞지 않는다고 본다. 통화정책에 대해서는 연준의 자산 매입과 저금리가 경제 성장에는 별 도움이 없고 버블만 키웠다고 비판한다. 부채/GDP 비율과 성장의 상관관계는 증명되지 않았다고 주장한다. 버블의 공통점으로 가격 가속, 평균 이상 상승, 광기 증가를 꼽으며 현재 세 가지 모두 충족했다고 본다. 이런 가속 국면은 보통 몇 달 이상 지속되지 않는다고 말한다. 낙관론자의 채권 금리 대비 주식 수익률 논거에 대해서는 버블 정점은 비관이 아니라 영구적 강세 서사(영구적 고원, 높은 이익률) 속에서 형성된다고 반박한다. 인플레이션 급등이 버블을 터뜨리는 유일한 요인이 아니며 충분조건일 뿐이라는 입장이다. 현재 국채 실질수익률이 음수라 채권 시장도 과대평가되어 있어 60/40 포트폴리오의 향후 10~20년 수익률은 나쁠 것으로 본다. 시장은 공포나 낙관에 의해 가치에서 크게 벗어나는 경우가 많으며, 투자 성패는 이런 편차 구간에서 결정된다고 강조한다. 2009년 저점 때처럼 바닥은 상황이 가장 나쁠 때가 아니라 조금씩 나아질 때 형성되고, 천장은 가장 낙관적인 날이 아니라 낙관이 조금씩 줄어들 때 형성된다는 취지다. 출연자는 시장 버블을 우려하는 장기 비관론자이며, 구체적 단기 목표 수치는 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
are we in a stock market bubble and if we are what should investors do about it i'm talking today with jeremy grantham who's been calling the highs and lows of market cycles for almost 50 years having founded gmo asset management in 1977. you have a strong thesis about what is going on in markets right now so why don't we begin with you just walking us through what we're seeing right now in equity markets historically it's always been hard to know how far a bull market can go and value has proven to be a very weak read on which to lean because value can go up and up and i like to say the nightmare for any value manager is japan in 1989 when um the price earnings ratio went to 65 times it had never previously been over 25 until that cycle the 2000 tech bubble was pretty uh amazing because it broke through the previous high of 21 times earnings in 1929 and shot up to 35 which was pretty brutal if you were playing against it as we were all the way from 21 to 35 and we needed a pretty decent bear market to look good after that and happily we got one but japan kept on going to 65 just to give you a warning that these things can happen if you're going to bet the shop you better have a better indicator than value there are some obvious examples and we should probably talk about gamestop but uh surely the list is pretty long at this point and maybe we ought to walk through it gamestop is a good place to start and that is obviously a company of very little value that was oddly picked up by aggressive individuals of with recent experience shall we say little experience and and push through the roof and in the process uh caught some short sellers in an embarrassing position and force them to cover which of course is always fun for the reader and painful for the hedge fund and so we have gamestop and the retail traders we have spaxx surely can't avoid mentioning tesla stock price in this context and perhaps bitcoin and hertz was a famous one from last year where a bankrupt company suddenly multiplied by five or ten times um with a guaranteed value of nil as it indeed as it indeed turned out to be tesla as an enterprise has consistently done the impossible and no doubt will continue to do so but if you're a financial analyst you you can push the numbers involved to justify today's price and it is of course quite remarkable and if you're a believer in market efficiency you have a little problem here because while the company's sales have gone up um between 20 and 25 the stock price has gone up 700 percent or it's multiplied by eight times so which one was efficient was it efficient a year ago uh before covered or is it efficient today but you can't have both so one of those two numbers was gloriously inefficient i do want to go back to the fed and monetary policy it seems like your view is very straightforward the monetary operations of the fed have done little for the economy and have done much to inflate a potentially destabilizing bubble is it is it that simple we would be better off without a fed at all in this circumstance we'd be better off with the fed that had the simple instruction to try and maintain a steady increase in the money supply in relationship to the gdp period and all its fancy obligations are misplaced misdesigned and i have a simple experiment which i love it shows debt to gdp ratio in the u.s climbing back from world war ii slowly rising across the page uh imperceptibly until you reach greenspan there is simply no proof that debt increases growth there is a convention that it does when we've spoken in the past jeremy you've been pretty confident that the reversal is coming soon uh this year predicting the future is a beast when we know that and we're kind of limited as historians to to the history that we have and and we've been favored by a few wonderful demonstrations of crazy invested behavior but amongst the serious bubbles japan is far and away in a class of its own the apparent old wives tale that the land under the empress palace was worth more than the entire state of california we spent two days looking at it and it was true this was not an old lifestyle this was an unbelievable uh commentary on the land values of downtown tokyo anyway that was japanese land the biggest bubble in history japanese stock market's the biggest equity bubble in history followed by 20 and and 2021 in my opinion so we've had a little set of these and they all have one thing in common they are all characterized by accelerating price uh above the average of the bull market and they are all characterized by increasing craziness and by investing as i say going on to the front page going into the cocktail party intruding in the lunchtime uh television show and we have checked off every one of those now if this wants to break break out and make a new branch of history it can do that it nothing is ever certain this thing could go on for years and years and and uh bitcoin could become like a rembrandt masterpiece worth exactly what somebody wants to pay for but if history means to repeat itself as a general principle i've always made a fuss that each bubble is different what you're looking for is just the spirit of the exercise is it crazy is it accelerating and when it gets into that mode the mode that we have been in for a few weeks it has always lasted no more than a few months let me play devil's advocate then the the people who remain bullish make the following argument which you've i'm sure heard a million times which is bond yields are incredibly low and the difference between government bond yields and the uh return on stocks is actually historically normal the fed has the power to keep those bond yields low and therefore that relationship will hold and stock valuations will stay high there's a two levels of response the the metal level is you don't think a bubble peak occurs with a background of pessimism it doesn't it it occurs when you when you have a perpetual bull story that something is a new high plateau in 1929 that alan greenspan's uh 2000 market that the internet is going to drive away the dark clouds of ignorance forever and we will have forever higher productivity he argued he got almost nothing right in my opinion by the way but every bull market has a permanent story profit margins abnormally high in 1929 in 2000 in in every one of them in japan will last forever because the conditions that got them there will last forever a lot of market commentators and investors make the argument that a spike in inflation or inflation expectations is the only thing that can pop this balloon you don't seem to take that view you don't think you you seem to think that um a spike in inflation might be sufficient but it's not necessary to crack this market that's well well put thank you that's completely my view um but to back up a second to use an asset class that is the most overpriced it has ever been where 20 of sovereign bonds have a negative real return and they guarantee to take some of your money uh over the 10 or 30 years that you give them your money it's pretty bizarre and it's ex absolutely without historical precedent to use that as the yardstick and say well u.s stocks aren't any more overpriced than the most overpriced bond market in history by a lot it's an odd way to determine value why not use bitcoin hey relative to bitcoin the u.s looks really cheap i i buy some more if i we it is a ludicrous idea uh uh to use a highly overpriced asset as a benchmark of any kind yes we're in a desperate situation in the us because we have an extraordinarily overpriced bond market coinciding with an extraordinarily overpriced stock market that doesn't make me feel better that makes me feel worse it should make me feel worse it means a 60 40 portfolio is is doomed to have a terrible 10 20 year return from here it seems like we are now living in a market over a period of decades that's nothing more or less than a succession of bubbles 2000 2008 now 2020 in in that kind of ba with that kind of backdrop it seems to me that active management becomes uh very difficult and the and outperforming uh say the s p 500 becomes a matter of accurately timing market tops and bottoms more than almost anything else do you think do you think active management can outperform over the long term uh anymore you know the g i know you don't manage gmo anymore but you know the the core gmo us equity fund is about tied with the s p since 1985.
is that as good as a an equity fund can do there are there's always one way to run a portfolio and that is to predict the future on a stop by stock basis and to do it slightly better than the marketplace the marketplace is often pretty good the marketplace is occasionally ludicrously wrong the actual present value of the long term stream of dividends would justify a very steady progression of the market since 1925 when we did the data ebbingham flowing only one percent here or there the reality is that as we know is that it ebbs and flows it turns out 17 times more volatile than is justified by the clairvoyant stream of dividends so we have designed a marketplace to be more a measure of hysteria than a measure of value is completely overwhelmed on occasions by by the psychology of crowds now in between these every 10 or 20 year speculative events the market can be pretty close to fair value can do a pretty decent job the paradox says that the only time that really matter in portfolio management are these deviations from fair value sometimes they're on the downside the my my favorite all-time letter was called reinvesting when terrified which we we published the day by luck the day the market hit its low in in in 2009 and and and we said you know get your act together the market's being crushed you can have double-digit returns for a long time get your program together get it in front of your your committee and and start getting getting yourself dragging yourself back into the market and of course you feel paralyzed why wouldn't you conditions are very bad and i made the point then that the market doesn't stop when it sees light at the end of the tunnel the market actually turns when everything is really black but it's a subtle shade less black than it was the day before and the same here at the top the market doesn't doesn't turn when something really bad happens it turns on the second most optimistic day for the last 20 years but it's a little less optimistic than it was yesterday and by the middle of the following week a little less optimistic and the next month a little less optimistic again and then you begin to realize that the game has changed that really hit the spot thank you bye
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