원문 보기
March 18, 2020. Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman calls CNBC in a complete panic. What is the president asking the American people for? He doesn't say, you know, He doesn't say storm the beaches of Normandy, does he? He says to go home. The infamous interview about " hell is coming" stunned the markets.
Ekman seemed upset, crying because the country and the world were falling apart right before our eyes. But over time, we discovered facts that made us rethink Bill's motives. It turned out that Ekman was n't crying because he felt bad. He cried because he couldn't believe how much money he had just made on his put options.
The options he bought a few weeks before the interview, which yielded $2.7 billion in profit from a small investment of $27 million. Many questioned his integrity and motives for sowing panic by having bets that would profit from that very panic. Now, almost a year later, Bill is back in the spotlight due to a similar situation.
A prediction that, if successful, could mean the beginning of the end for US markets. In a series of confusing tweets, Ekman said the following about the Federal Reserve. He claims to have given a presentation to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to share his views on inflation and Fed policy. The gist of the presentation was that Bill and his team believe the Fed should immediately wind down stimulus and start raising rates as soon as possible.
Now think about that for a second. Why does a hedge fund manager who owns mostly stocks want the Fed to wind down stimulus? We have discussed this many times on our channel. Cutting stimulus would be the right move, but it would also mean the stock market would plummet. Of course, it is hard to imagine that a billionaire hedge fund manager would do, quote, “the right thing ” by ignoring his own interests and promoting policies that would ultimately lead to major losses for him and his clients.
10 minutes later, Bill tweeted what we all suspected. He was short, stating that, and I quote, “ as we have previously reported, we have backed our words with money, hedging our risk of rising rates, as we believe that rising rates could negatively impact our equity portfolio.” This is a nice way of saying, "I'll make a ton of money if the Fed cuts stimulus." It also calls into question the integrity of the Federal Reserve.
Why would they even meet with a hedge fund manager who is interested in promoting a certain policy? It would be like Bill Belichick arguing to NFL executives why his team should only play at home. An outrageous proposal that, in my opinion, is a huge conflict of interest . But, to be honest, not everything about this proposal is bad.
Ackman clearly outlined his strategy for 2022. This is a strategy that will bring profit regardless of market movement. If you listen to his latest interview , his strategy is simple but effective , and you can apply it to your own advantage. Often in the comments, many people ask how to protect themselves from the threat of high inflation.
And here is the answer. The focus of our strategy is to own what I call super-strong and resilient companies. Isn't that right? People will order pizza for delivery and eat it. And if you can feed a family of four with pizza for $8, that's a pretty good deal; It will be delivered to you in 28 minutes in a box that keeps it warm, by a smiling courier.
This will continue in the future. You know, Hilton, Hilton stock fell the most of anything we owned when the pandemic was announced. We significantly increased our stake in the company when the price was around $50 or so . Today, the stock is worth 140. So when you own a business that has very attractive economic characteristics, it is largely immune—not on a day-to-day basis, but protected from fluctuations in interest rates or commodity prices.
I think that perhaps the most important characteristic today would be pricing power. You know, if the cost of your expenses increases, you have to be able to raise the price and not lose the customer. And this applies to each of our companies. So, Ackman is essentially saying that the right way to navigate the markets in the future is to own companies that have pricing power.
A business that people will use no matter what. Even with high inflation, I agree with Bill that people will continue to order pizza and Chipotle. Ask yourself: would you stop eating your chicken and rice if they raised the price by 10%? Sure, you might be upset for a week or two, but I truly believe that most people will keep buying.
But this is not the complete picture. There are some things Bill won't say publicly. It is very likely that his preferred scenario is a rapid increase in Fed rates. That would crash the markets, including the stocks he was talking about, but it would also make him a ton of money on the various interest rate hedges he has.
If everything had gone according to his plan, he would have sold these hedges, taking the profit to buy up the cheaper stocks. After all, we know that the Fed would return rates to zero if a recession threatened. And again, Bill, as during his infamous short in 2020, would make money on the decline and then on the subsequent rise.
Don't forget that while he was screaming on CNBC that " hell is coming," he was closing his short position and buying up Hilton shares at 50 something. Hilton is currently worth 140. This is a strategy we've seen before. This interview from March 18, 2020 demonstrates just that. He screams over and over again that Hilton stock will fall to zero.
But listen to what happens in the middle of the interview. This is a pretty amazing piece. These guys definitely know how to play games with the media. Now, you know, look at Hilton stock. We are a major shareholder of Hilton. Hilton is like a canary in the mine. It's an incredibly capitalized, great, dominant global company that doesn't actually own many hotels.
She's just collecting royalties. It went from 120 to 50. Okay, it's going to zero, okay, along with every other hotel company in the world, you know, Park Hotels and Resorts, these, you know, stocks went from 33 to 4. It's a spin-off from Hilton. Why did they drop from 33 to 4? Because every hotel in the country will be closed, absolutely every one.
Wait. Wait one second. You say Hilton is going to zero. I mean... And again, I, I'm a big shareholder. I'm saying if we let this continue the way we're letting it, okay, every hotel company in the world, okay, it's over. Okay, because no business can survive for 18 months without revenue. OK? And so, listen to me, this is what's going to happen, okay, if you act the way we're acting now, okay?
Now let me say...So, this is a very, very pessimistic view, okay? And I was very pessimistic, uh, but I became optimistic, okay? And the reason I became optimistic and aggressively bought stocks, including Hilton, today, okay? And I bought everything during the downturn: Hilton, Restaurant Brands, Starbucks, you know, go through our list.
The only stocks I don't buy are companies where we are on the board of directors and have restrictions. So, this should confirm your suspicions. The strategy is simple. Buy a short hedge, sow panic, sell a short hedge and buy up the depreciated stocks. To make a profit on both sides. That's why Ekman's firm, Pershing Square, was able to generate 58% of its profits in 2019 and 71% in 2020.
I hope this video serves as proof that everything you hear in the media from people who manage other people's money is probably not their true opinion, but rather an agenda-pushing move for their own interests. Raising rates may be the right move, but pressuring the Federal Reserve to do so only after you have secured a short position seems a bit outrageous to me.
Let us know what you think in the comments below. As always, thanks for watching. Please don't forget to hit the subscribe button and check out my new channel via the link in the description below.
Comments 0