저자: 미상 · 외국인
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버크셔해서웨이의 현금 보유 급증(2024년 4분기 약 3340억 달러, 9분기 연속 순매도)을 근거로 버핏이 시장 붕괴를 경고하고 있다는 주장. 2006년 버핏의 주택시장 발언과 2007년 현금 패턴을 비교하며, 마이애미 콘도 공급 증가(약 16개월분)를 현재 주택시장 위험 신호로 제시. 다만 과거 사례 해석과 현재 상황 연결은 추정에 기반함.
다듬은 글
on February 22nd 2025 Warren Buffett released his annual letter to shareholders this is a typical regular occurrence but this time something bizarre and unprecedented stood out a single that serves as a warning for the entire Global Financial market now you might argue that this is just speculation and to some extent that's fair but as you're about to see the moves happening inside birkshire reveal some serious red flags the first thing you need to know is is that Warren Buffett isn't the kind of businessman to issue warnings nor has he ever publicly revealed anything that might compromise his long-term strategy for shareholders the common read on him is to watch what he does and not what he says in his 60 years at birk he has never come out and made a strong negative prediction he has always remained balanced in commentary straying from controversial statements even in the face of complete meltdowns So reading into what his company is doing from a financial perspective is key in understanding what may come next and what he's actually thinking because trust me as much as he says he doesn't predict the future you can bet that he has a pulse on everything from a long-term perspective otherwise he wouldn't be the most successful investor of all time so with that said enough psychology let's jump right into the facts for most of berkshire's History stretching back to the 1960s they have been a net buyer of stocks simply meaning they buy more than they spend this makes sense since after all Buffett is considered the world's best investor so why not utilize that skill set however as of Q4 2024 Burkshire had 334 billion in cash and has been a net seller of stocks for nine quarters in a row stretching back the Q4 of 2022 this has never happened in company history even more striking is the speed at which this cash pile is growing signaling a level of caution we have never seen before they started 2023 off slow increasing their reserves by about 3% per quarter but in 2024 Buffett did something unprecedented he started aggressively offloading apple and other major stocks causing the cash pile to grow by an average of 16% per quarter totaling and EST staching 81% over the year no matter how much he insists that this is normal or tries to downplay it there's simply no way you sell this much unless you believe something big and potentially very bad is on the horizon in fact if if you ask Warren how he feels about the current state of the economy his response speaks volumes this is a clip from an interview on March 3rd 2025 listen closely and decide for yourself whether this sounds like the reaction of someone confident in the markets can I just ask you a couple of questions about kind of how you see the state of the economy right now well I think that's the most interesting subject in the world but I won't talk I can't talk about it now I really can't how do you think tariffs will affect the economy mean are actually we've had a lot of experience with them they're they're an act of War to some degree So In that clip he essentially says he can't discuss the economy and even suggests that tariffs are an act of War if we assume that chaos is on the horizon berkshire's massive cash pile starts to make perfect sense in fact we've seen this pattern before looking at berkshire's Cash reserves from a three-year average perspective dating back to 1999 a clear Trend IM merges before the Doom Bubble Burst Buffett was steadily building his reserves and while he didn't deploy as much cash as some might have expected between 2002 and 2004 this wasn't entirely surprising Buffett has never been a big fan of tech stocks still the data is clear he was stockpiling cash ahead of a crash and then putting it to work when the market collapsed in 2001 and 2002 and then in 2004 the same Trend starts to emerge again he begins growing that pile again and in those years he begins to make subtle statements regarding the future of the market specifically the housing market which would obviously go on to crash in late 2007 now of course he never flat out said we would face the biggest recession since the Great Depression but there were clear signs from his statements that something just wasn't right and it's remarkably similar to what is happening now take a listen to this question from the 2006 annual shareholder meeting where in my opinion he essentially predicts the 2007 crash and it's reinforced by his massively growing cash pile which coincidentally is growing at rapid Pace at the time of these statements uh number one again I'm laor Gul from San Francisco California my question is what are your thoughts about the residential real estate market in the US where it's headed and how is Cali different if so well Charlie's our California expert we we've managed one time to develop a great piece of property in California and we spent about 20 years or so developing in Charlie I'm going to skip over the start of this because he begins his answer with a long story about a California development project he was involved with that essentially breaks even over the course of a 20-year period this was due to fluctuations in land cost stating that they sold at at the wrong time and could have made 10 to 20x their money if they held out but this story leads into the main point the speculation in the housing market during the peak of the housing bubble right before the big crash in 2007 you know it's a wonderful climate is wonderful everything's wonderful about this property it's just that that from time to time even in great localities you've seen it happen in New York a couple of times you know in the last 30 years where the the swinging properties values has just been huge and what we see in our Residential Brokerage business and we're in I don't know how many different states is we see a Slowdown every place now we see it most dramatically in some of the what have been the hottest markets and the markets where you're going to in my view you're likely to see the greatest fall off and where you've had the biggest bubble are the ones tend to be the high-end market and they tend to ones where people have bought for investment or speculation uh rather than use $100,000 for a house and mortgage it for 270,000 and if the value goes to 250 if they have a job and everything they they won't move out I mean that the you don't lose a lot of money even though the market value on a given day is less than the loan value when fam stay together and employment uh is present and all that but but when you have have in investment typee Holdings or speculation type Holdings when you in effect of had the day Traders you know of the internet move into the day trading of of condos uh then you the then you get then you get transa then then you get a market that can move in a big way first it sort of stops and then it kind of reopens real estate is different than than stocks if you own a 100 shares of General Motors it's going to trade on Monday and and that's what it's worth and you can't kid yourself about it but if you're own real estate you know there's a great tendency to think about the one that sold down the street a few months ago and there's a great tendency to think you know you only need one buyer uh who hasn't gotten the word that things have slowed down and and and you'll make your sale I can tell you that in in dayen Broward County for example in Florida um where the average condo is about 500,00 ,000 if you go back to December of 2004 there were less than 9,000 condos listed for sale and I think 2,900 of them sold in the month so you were turnover one every three months less than that now the listings are up to 30,000 and the sales are down to under 2,000 a month well 30,000 is $15 billion worth of properties and you were very likely you can get real discontinuities in the market like that where all of a sudden people realize that the whole Supply demand situation has changed so I I think we've had a bubble to some degree and it's very hard to measure that degree till till after it's all over but uh uh I would be surprised if there aren't some significant downward adjustments from the peak particularly in the higher end uh properties so let's just quickly break down what he just said and align it with what's happening right now in 2006 the Burkshire cash pile was growing at unbelievable Pace about to hit a record high one year after those words by Buffett the housing market crashes starting in cities like Miami and Phoenix and more specifically in the extremely overpriced condo markets going back to the clip Warren essentially says that in Dade County the months of Supply figure for condos had gone from 3 months to something way more extreme he also says that typically before a real estate crash the market will pause before prices go down after people realize just how much inventory has piled up and of course this is exactly what happened in 2007 looking specifically at the condo Market in Dade County prices here Dro 50% in a lot of neighborhoods and even more if you looked out for distress sales while the case Schiller shows this drop on official reports many people were able to get deals much bigger than this with some prices falling as much as 80% now this Miami story was a mini case study for the rest of the country as prices all over the place plummeted and eventually caused a chain reaction leading to a worldwide Financial meltdown of course Buffett swooped in with his massive cash pile and bought great companies for pennies on the dollar exhausting his cash in the Years following 2007 since that date as we've discussed he has been growing that pile to record amounts while making similar subtle remarks regarding today's market a quick look at Miami's condo Market shows 16 months of Supply which is a massive change compared to the pandemic lows where months of Supply was nearing 1 month for much of the country real estate is at a standstill with prices flat and volume very low which if we follow Buffett's logic we know what's coming next align this with the cash pileup and you have a wild coincidence emerging with a near perfect setup for another burshire sweep right now there are wild shifts happening in the housing market and Buffett's cash pileup can no longer be excused as just a market adjustment this is something bigger and time will tell if he ends up right once again thank you guys for watching as always please make sure you hit that like And subscribe button if you enjoyed it and if you're in the Miami date area let me know what you're seeing especially for those involved in the condo markets
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