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Tom Lee: Inflation Falls “Like a Rock” Despite Tariff Passthru, $GRNY Earnings Incoming This Week

Fundstrat Capital · 2025-10-27 · 유튜브 시청 48,297 · Board Views 8 · International

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Hi there. This is Tom Lee. I'm the chief investment officer of Fundstrat Capital and the lead portfolio manager for Fundstrat's US Large Cap Granny Shots ETF. This is our weekly update for the week of October 24th. Before I dive into the content, I want to cover some particulars. Um price as of October 24th was 2572, net asset value of 2571, and total assets of 3.47 billion dollars.

For the week ending um October 24th, Granny Shots uh had total gains of 2.47% compared to 1.93 for the S&P 500 or 50 basis points of relative outperformance. Year-to-date, Granny Shots is up 29% compared to a 17% gain for the S&P or roughly 1212 basis points of outperformance. And in terms of asset gathering, total asset growth for the month of October has been 420 million so far, but there's still 1 week left, and it's on track already to be the third best month for Granny Shots.

Uh in terms of macro, I thought I would just comment on one that inflation's falling, and we could see that with the September CPI report, and that the Fed is set to cut this week. Uh just to level set, over the last 12 months, economists have been expecting inflation to come in at 0.3%. This is core for each of the last 12 months, and in the most recent inflation report, that number came in at 0.3, which is much better than expected.

The highlight of that report, in my opinion, is that shelter uh CPI has gone from being roughly 0.3 to 0.4 every month to 0.16. That's pretty much normalizing. I mean, if you annualize that number, it's coming in at roughly just under 2%. And that means inflation's falling like a rock because that's the largest contributor to inflation.

And in terms of the percentage of CPI components that are deflating from their peak, it's actually now at 51%, uh which is a very high number and well above the 32% long-term average. So, inflation is falling like a rock, and that's while we're still in the midst of the tariff-related inflation pass-throughs.

On the week ahead, there's a lot of economic data that's not going to be reported because of the government shutdown, durable goods, GDP, PCE, and the employment cost index. But we do get two key macro points this week. The FOMC rate decision on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time. And then on Thursday's, the actual summit between uh President Trump and Xi Jinping of China, and that's going to take place in South Korea.

Speaking of the shutdown, um Polymarket shows that um markets only assign a 10% probability that the shutdown ends next week. And if the most probable is 52% chance it happens after November 16th. So, that's still another 3 weeks out. There are a lot of Granny Shots reporting earnings this week. In fact, 13 of the 39 Granny Shots, or roughly a third, are reporting results this week.

And they're highlighted here. You can see it's really heavily weighted for Wednesday and Thursday of this week. But it's been a good earnings season so far. 87% of companies are beating results by total of 8% almost 8%. That's big. Um 175 companies will report this coming week. And in terms of Granny Shots stock performance, uh the top five performers in the past week were Exxon Enterprises, CrowdStrike, AMD, Robinhood Markets, and Arista Networks.

A lot of this is AI-related. The bottom five performers this week were Tesla, Live Nation, GE Vernova, Oracle, and Netflix. And some of these are in earnings. As far as themes go, style tilt was the best performing, followed by energy and cybersecurity, and finally AI/global labor suppliers. That's it for now. Thanks for listening, and I'll speak to you soon.

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