저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
8월 근원 CPI(9/11 발표)가 핵심 변수이며 둔화 시 금리인상 확률 하락 기대. 근원PCE(3.3%)와 CPI 차이 100bp 대부분은 플래시메모리·주식가격 측정오차 탓이라 주장. 휘발유 비중은 역사적으로 낮아 금리인상 가능성 0에 가깝다고 봄. 9월은 성장 월, 부정적 계절성은 역발상 강세 신호. 암호화폐·AI 병목 기업 강세, 소형주 매수 유지. 금리인상 미발생 시 채권 관련 포지션은 역효과 가능성 인정.
다듬은 글
Hello, at called Granny Shots. This is our review for the week that began September 8th. First, let me talk about some details. For Granny, the ETF of the large- cap fund Granny Shots , as of September 4, the price was $28.12 and total assets were $4.5 billion. For small- and mid- cap Granny, or Granny J, the total price was 29.31 and assets under management were 497 million.
And for the profitable Granny, ticker GRNI, the price was 21.19 , and total assets were 58 million. Over the past week, the large- cap Granny rose 1.1%, compared to 0.13% for the S&P 500, outperforming the index by about 95 basis points. The Income Granny rose 1 %, compared to 0.03% for the Russell 2500, which represents a lead of 97 basis points.
And for the income Granny, a 1% increase compared to 0.13% for the S&P 500 gives a 90 basis points relative lead. Year-to-date, Granny is up 13.67%, compared to 13.65% for the S&P 500, giving it a one basis point lead. Granny J is up 15% year to date compared to 22% for the Russell 2500, which represents a lag of about 669 basis points.
And for the profitable Granny, growth is 12.23% compared to 13.65%, or 142 basis points behind. So, let's talk about macroeconomics. The key event this week is the CPI for August. But before I talk about that, I want to note that this Friday marks the 25th anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States.
It was a landmark event in US history that changed the country forever. But, of course, the US has become stronger. I remember that day well. I was in midtown Manhattan working at JP Morgan when these attacks happened. Also, the CPI for August is coming out on September 11th , and markets will focus on that because that's what the Fed is focused on.
Last week, Fed Board of Governors member Chris Waller said he was leaning toward not raising rates, and everything would depend on the August CPI. If progress in reducing inflation continues, he will advocate holding the rate. If August data is strong, he will consider raising rates. He also believes that current policies are still conducive to disinflation.
So, this is a critically important week. There are many other events this week, including the New York Fed survey and the small business optimism survey. By the way, it came out on Tuesday. I believe the NFIB data contained many encouraging findings. You know, if we consider inflation as a problem for business, then in 2022 it was very high.
It jumped earlier this year due to the war in Iran, but now it is actually declining. The same applies to planned price increases. Hmm, this trend is also on the decline. The New York Federal Reserve Bank's inflation survey also yielded promising results. The indicator has been declining for three months in a row, and this is confirmed by surveys from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board.
On Thursday of this week, we will receive data on the core CPI for August. But, of course, the main focus is on Friday. We have the 25th anniversary of 9/11 and the August core CPI. And again, if it is softer or lower than expected, then the probability of a rate hike should fall, so that could be an important catalyst.
But prediction markets still rate the probability of an increase at 55%. Sorry, 55%. This is the base scenario. And Fed rate futures indicate a 63% chance of an increase. We believe that in reality the trend will be towards zero. We do not expect the Fed to raise rates. And I realize that oil has risen significantly in the last week, bond yields are rising, and commodity prices have risen significantly, but remember what Fed Governor Waller said.
It all comes down to the August CPI. Let me explain why. The Fed is targeting 2% per year. The core CPI for August is likely to be around 2.3%. Well, that's not too far from the Fed's goal. So I think it makes sense for the Fed to be a little more patient, especially if the annualized rate is declining.
But here's the thing. The Fed usually relies or directly relies on the core PCE index. It is 3.3%. This is 94 basis points higher than the CPI. I don't hear many people questioning this difference , but it's a big difference. That's 100 basis points, and of course, that's a very important difference for the Fed's decisions.
Well, here's the thing. We wrote about this. It all comes down to two positions. Flash memory and stock prices account for almost the entire 100 basis point difference between core PCE and the CPI. So keep that in mind. I think this is a measurement error in the PCE. And, by the way, the burden of gasoline costs is actually still quite small.
I mean, during the oil embargo, it reached 6.5% of the household budget. It was a big burden. It was 4.5% during the supercycle in China and on the eve of the global financial crisis. Even after the jump due to the Iran war, it is only 2.2% today. This is significantly below the 65- year average. Therefore, I believe that the probability of raising rates will be close to zero.
Of course, in the meantime, we are watching yields, and this only confirms our view: if we are right and the Fed does not raise rates, then our position is counterproductive. I think September will be a month of growth. It's September. Um, there are people concerned about negative seasonality, but that's a counterintuitive bullish signal.
We see a lot of pessimism about AI, but AI stocks are outperforming again. And remember, when bearish sentiment prevails, it rarely becomes a market top. We have the August jobs report and the consumer price index, and I think both point in favor of the Fed holding off on action. And, of course, we await the FOMC's decision on the interest rate.
In the meantime, let's consider what is driving the performance in the markets since June 30. 2 months into the third quarter, cryptocurrency remains the best performing asset, followed by energy and technology. Of course, that's where Granny is located. Because we bet that we still like AI, but as those second-tier companies adjust, the " Magnet Seven," software, and crypto should outperform the market.
And indeed, the stars of this quarter were cryptocurrencies. Of the 21 best-performing stocks in the Russell 1000 index, four are cryptocurrency companies. This is a significant contribution from the crypto sector. So, uh, in our opinion, small-cap companies remain attractive, so at Granny J we have tilted towards smaller companies and are buying up dips.
When it comes to the performance of stocks in portfolios, let's look at some of the highlights. Granny's top five of the week, among large- cap companies: Robinhood Markets, MicroStrategy, Deere, Vertiv, and Micron. Essentially, the first two are cryptic, and the rest are bottlenecks in the industry.
And here are the five outsiders: Union Pacific, Palantir, Monster, Lockheed Martin, and Cadence. As for mid- cap companies, the top five are: Bloom Energy, Riot Platforms, Galaxy Digital, Modine Manufacturing, and Sound Group. So, everything crypto-related feels good, and of course, AI bottlenecks are showing great results.
Bloom, by the way, was recently added to the S&P 500 index. Among the five worst performers, as you can see, are stocks that suffered due to earnings reports. As for topics, the best one remains the topic of " millennials." It has always been a leader, followed by a change in investment style and easing financial conditions.
So we are betting that the Fed will not raise rates . Thank you for your attention, see you soon.
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