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warning it's a trap the S&P is Now setting up a double top so what can we do if this is actually a trap because a double top pattern is not bullish well let's look at what retail thinks we're going to do next week this is an extreme reading and Retail is usually wrong we have to also remember that most declines in a bare Market happen after the FED pivot negative 35 to 50 so what did Jerome pwell tell us he told us the time has come for the FED to cut into interest rates uhoh things don't usually turn out well when the FED pivots or Cuts rates so that's uh that's scenario number one I would also note that we've hit my target from the beginning of the year of 5600 so like what could happen from here well things could be pretty bleak if this is truly a double top which basically just means that we're not going to form a new all-time high we've hit our double top and now it's time to slide well that's scenario number one that would be a bull trap scenario number two is that this could actually be a bear trap it could be 1995 now let's see the other side of the coin because the technicals align in history tells us that when we're Higher by more than 10% at the midpoint of the year on average we're Higher by 82.6% for between eight and 10% gains hey that's not so bad no and when we have more than 20 record closes by the midpoint of the year on average we're Higher by 80% for roughly 6 to 10% Higher by the end of of the year so this is going to really matter because at the end of this week on the 30th it's going to be the end of the week and the end of the month again one more time is this going to be a double top by the end of the week in the end of the month because we already know that um right now on the weekly chart we've hit our mathematical extension at 560 as well that's the same number I just showed you here from my target at the beginning of the year the 161 extension that I shared on December 30th so to make this really simple we have this weekly pattern that now hit a Target and on the monthly we don't yet know what's going to happen here so I don't know if it's a bull trap or a bear trap as of right now if this if this is a double top yeah the Bears are able to take control but they're only getting number one right now so if we're looking at the end of the month how could they actually get a close below the previous candle low I'll show you what could happen well this is where it gets interesting we're going to get inflation numbers coming out on Friday we're going to get a revision to GDP and I'm going to show you one more thing in a minute so please just stay tuned the fed's preferred inflation gauge is set to reinforce rate cuts which means again potentially we could be going downtown which means a stock market crash it's a matter of how much so what's their preferred inflation gauge well here we're looking at on a three-month basis core pce is now at 2.1% 2.1 versus 2.3 last month hey that's a pretty good reading it's basically at two it's time to cut so if it's 1995 it would mean that that we're looking for a few more things let's see what exactly what that would mean we've been looking for growth outside of Mega caps for quite some time and now we're finally seeing it as of August 10th the S&P Bloomberg intelligence is telling us that uh the S&P 500 x mag 7 or taking out the Magnificent 7 is set for growth of 74 7.4% in the second quarter all right let's make this simpler because people might be getting confused here's the Outlook um as of right now it is expected to be positive in the July September period for the first time going back to 2021 what does that mean it means we're finally seeing growth for the broader Market it could be 1995 but we're going to need to see more evidence to really confirm that all right now you've talked about the end of the month and this is going to be very binary so we got Nvidia on the 28th we got pce on the 30th then we close out weekly monthly candles I just told you how important those are so on the 28th Nvidia is going to report earnings right now we're looking for an 11% on earnings and we've already talked about the reasons why I think these stocks go up if we look at the last month and go no group the stocks that have done not great in the Magnificent 7 are Microsoft Amazon Google ironically the company's spending on AI so if they're spending on AI who's going to benefit oh that's right it would be our friend Nvidia so I expect they're going to give us forward guidance it's positive because these companies are spending and sacrificing profit and that's going to be on the 28th then we round out the month on the 30th with that pce reading all right so now we've talked about the potential for a uh for a bar move and again I know the I know the video has a big move lower I just knew you were going to click on it so we're going to talk about both scenarios at the very end of the show but I'm going to ask you for a huge favor first if you could please consider smashing that thumbs up and subscribing to the channel I would greatly greatly appreciate that all right so now you've told us that if it's the bearish scenario we got a very simple recipe we're looking for here no new alltime high we filled our upper Gap we reject on the weekly on a Fibonacci number which was a Target and then on the monthly chart we're just going to start fading from now that's that's the uh that's the scenario this would also be a double top here on the weekly again a sell signal so now let's pick up the story for the Bulls because this is honestly again you probably know if you're following this channel it's my base case and the reason why I keep talking about 1995 is because people just don't seem to understand what happened in 1995 there was a technical Revolution it was called the internet so now we have to really ask ourselves whether this AI thing is really something special after we have uh Nvidia report earnings if it's bullish and inflation comes down to 2.1 on Friday like I just showed you well what could happen into September for the bull party to really continue because I'm expecting us to go higher by a lot I'm talking 220% going back to the 1990s after we get to number four which is Mak a new all time time high and we've already started that so how can we go incredibly higher Market widens out we don't get an AI flop and the Outlook is strong okay make it really simple for me here let's do it so Apple's going to announce on September 10th they're going to be debuting new iPhones airpods and watches these are going to be available in store starting on September 20th these are likely going to be AI devices and Apple's a really big deal in case you didn't know it um apple is in a position to create itself as a consumer's Genai Base Cam do I agree with that well it doesn't really matter of choice just as it is done for digital content with the iPod and social media with the iPhone so if anybody is going to uh really make an indent into uh AI I think it's going to be Apple so what else could they be doing they're already going to announce um new iPhones that's probably going to be AI enabled or enhanced they also got Apple intelligence or Ai and then they got airpods and watches but what else well here's where it gets interesting Apple explores Robotics and search for life beyond the iPhone they've put a pause on their cart and look at this apple wants to build these things Apple makes great Hardware Apple makes great software are they gonna announce this on the 10th with that one more thing um that would be quite interesting I think so this is all also really interesting because right now World Conference happening in Beijing and this is what they just revealed human again more human-like robotic uh humanoids that are again giving human gestures and look much more lifelike so if China's going into this well wouldn't it make sense for the Western countries to also try to compete absolutely it also looks like there's a lot of demand so if it's 1995 the Bears again conveniently ignore this part here where there is a ray cut every arrow here they're pointing to the ray Cuts well here there's a rate cut and what happens the market goes Higher by 220% that's how it could be bear trap so that's what Jerome might have done on Friday taking a victory laugh and saying ah sucket Bears you guys are right most of the time but this time I got you and this is where if we look at the heat map and go to groups let's look and see where we've been here today ah there's our good old friend Mr Green yes everything is basically higher and I just told you that we're now seeing a widening out last part major central banks are now aligned as Powell sees fed Cuts ahead what is that mean Canada the bank of England and the US are now aligned are these the only important countries no but they were at Jackson Hole for a photo W there you go so wanting this all out what has actually made you all-time highs because I told you I would leave you with some action here RSP new all-time highs look at Canada xiu this is the S&P 60 new all-time highs so what I would be looking for is for more stocks to join the club if we look here to RSP which is equal weight S&P 500 100 what do we have high higher highest new alltime high so this is not a double top and yes I know that's what I put in the title of today's video well I also thought this could be a double top back here where it looked a lot more probable but now we have a bullish engulfing monthly candle what's a bullish engulfing monthly candle it has the word bullish in it we go lower to start the month off we rally back up and actually close above the previous resistance that's what happened over here which means that the Bears took temporary control because they printed a monthly lower low and the Bears said nope we're rallying it up up and even higher than the previous candle so this is extremely bullish let's look at xiu not that Canada really matters frankly but uh we also have a bullish engulfing monthly candle here over that previous all-time high so as we're focusing only on the S&P or if we're only focusing on the S&P well here we don't quite have that I really think Nvidia and what whatever Apple says it uh next month after the Fed really going to matter let's look at a few more charts here because I think this is what's really important here the NASDAQ is not the current leader why well we can see that here right this still looks like it could be a head and shoulders there's your head there's your shoulder there's your shoulder so if the S&P is going to tank it's probably going to be because this pattern does not play out we're now back inside an uh back inside the range of the previous candle we're back above 454 but below 504 and the S&P if it can hold by closing at or near the high of this candle it should get get follow through again keyword being sh I just told you what the key catalysts are for this week it's Wednesday and Friday and honestly I don't know what's going to happen or what the reaction will be but you probably guessed it by now I'm leaning on being bullish so finally uh if we look here to SMH similar pattern right there's your head there's a potential shoulder there's a potential shoulder so if chips lead tech and Tech lead spy well chips are already starting a slide they're only up by half a percent on the month if we look to QQQ well up by 2% but again still at a resistance area here they're not looking like the Dow they're not looking like Banks which they're much closer to all-time highs so to round this out and make it really simple let's look at two or three more quick charts just to make the story very clear now let's go back here to our weekly chart and look at vix let's actually go to the monthly why well remember we had this big bout of volatility like in 2008 Global financial crisis like in 2020 Global lockdowns but here's the really important part if this is not a glob meltdown or interest rate error what should happen well let's look on a line chart because this cares about a closing price you don't even see you don't even see 2024 here why because this is a candle close back in 2008 it was a multi-month bolid volatility one two three months over here one two that is why we get a close over 50 and uh this time we didn't which means that it appears like it was a oneandone uh if we go back here to vix let me just pull it back up this is really important for my thesis again keyword being thesis it's not a 30-day money back guarantee so if 2024 is truly different like it would be if uh it actually is 1995 this is only so we have one two 3 four five six times this would be one in six times it actually worked just like here this would actually be one in three times it actually worked so because we basically shook the tree and I think we set a massive bear trap not a bull trap this is why the market can keep going higher there's more than $6 trillion dollar sitting on the sidelines waiting for a place to put their money now why because your own pav just lowered interest rates so that money's going to want to find a reach for yield or find things to buy all right so with that said if you have any questions or comments please drop me a comment if not watch the video on the left or subscribe on the right and I'll see you guys at 9:15 am on Monday thanks so much
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