저자: JustinCaron · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee의 다년 바닥 논리를 인용하며 소형주의 리스크 대비 보상이 매력적이라고 주장. 주간 차트 바닥 패턴과 확장 신호 확인이 필요하다며 8월 말까지 인내를 권함. 9월 FOMC에서 50bp 인하 가능성, 6조 달러 MMF 자금의 주식 유입 기대. 채널 주인은 낙관 쪽이나 확정 신호 전까지 기다리라는 조건부 입장.
다듬은 글
is it time to buy stocks now this simple two-step recipe says yes and Tom Lee says we're in the process of a multi-year bottom so what exactly do I do because stocks have been on fire in the last week maybe the more important question is what should we be buying because earnings growth is finally seen outside of the mega caps this will be for the first time going back to 2021 it's pretty significant so without wasting any more time let's see what the biggest bull on Wall Street has to say they always say bottoms are tough and bottoms are a process and small caps are really in the process of a multi what we think is a multi you know multi-year bottom and so conviction is not going to be as strong as things that have been working I think most people's toolkit is to buy the the triple Q you know the NASDAQ or the AI names when they they want to get back in the markets but cutting rates at a time when small cats trade at 10 times forward PE better earnings growth and then a really a visible path to easing I I would say it still makes sense that the risk reward is in small caps all right that's a pretty simple message and if you've been listening for the last 60 seconds that's basically what I just showed you I showed you that we're now expecting earnings growth outside of Mega caps for the first time going back to 2021 we've also talked about how this is a historic Spike on the Vex unless there's a global lockdown a global financial crisis now might be a time to buy and Tom Lee is saying that small caps provide a good risk reward and they're forming forming a multi-year base well they've been forming a multi-year base for a long time so what's really important is that a lot of individual names are actually back above their 50 dma which means momentum's actually shifting back to the uh being bullish the one thing that gives me pause though is that 64% of people think we're going to go higher when retail is this much on one side it of means that we're not going to get exactly what they want we're currently in fear which is progress and this is normally a time we want to buy because when we go from extreme fear into fear we normally go back up to Greed if not higher this time we went back all the way down to extreme fear and now we've exited so which means that dips are likely for buying so now let's go through and find out a little bit more about what H what happened this week here we go the sell-off compared to average declines after we get a 5% decline the average move is ne1 .8 we basically got a correction at 9.7 and then stocks stapped back violently look at this NASDAQ number one S&P number two Russell number three Dow Jones number four okay and this is important because now Goldman Sachs is actually cutting their uh recession Outlook to 20 from 25 and they could actually even reduce it further down to 15 if they get a good jobs report excellent so earning season's almost over there are some companies that mattered in here but for the most most part we got Home Depot we got Walmart last week which showed the consumers fairly strong so what's Jerome Powell going to have to say when he speaks this week at Jackson Hole uh this will be important because we have European CPI we got the fomc meeting minutes which are likely going to be a bit stale now so it's really all about Friday at 10 o'clock when Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole here's the fed's calendar on the 23rd we're gonna have Jackson hle on the sixth we got the jobs report on the 11th CPI and then the FED decides on the 18th so what are they likely going to do well we don't think Powell will shut the door on a 50 basis point cut and it's going to be appropriate to cut it's a matter of how much and uh for how long so a lot of people are talking about what the probabilities are I don't think it really matters they're going to be cutting it's a matter of how much and because Jerome Powell's going to be finishing off the week here's the really important part if an expansion signal is number two or closing over that previous candle High all we're basically looking for is for green week because we basically closed at or near the high this week so if all the way into Friday we managed to make progress hey it's bullish we're going to keep expanding so here's something that's a little bit tricky right now Q3 Q3 GDP from the St Louis fed is actually back down to 1.98 this is still a good number but we know that inflation is still above that so this is the time to consider that 50 basis point cut like it's being discussed here I don't know what Jerome Powell's going to do but there's definitely a lot happening in the mix right now all right if now we look to how we got to here Goldman Sachs told us that a wall of money was going to flow into the market in early July well that's exactly what happened and if you remember going back to 1928 uh the first 15 days are usually the best of the year after July 17th which is ironically pretty much the date we topped right here uh it's on the 16th and then that's when Trump was talking about uh not defending a certain country you probably know which one the market went down went down and then all the way back up and that massive Spike on the vix really tells me that investors are ready sorry they weren't ready but now if they need insurance there was a rush they've bought everything they need I'm e thumbs up or subscribing to the channel thank you very much ahead of time okay so if now we understand that this is what normally happens and as Tom Lee says in the interview August is usually a month where the market bottoms what's going to happen with a 6.1 trillion If the Fed does cut it means they're going to make less money just like what's happened every previous time it goes from five right back down to zero here we go to bruly two right back down to zero so as the rate the FED is going to pay for you to hold on to money and money market funds basically the $ six trillion dollar they're gonna have to find a new home where's that going to go well probably at least partially into stocks I think so so here's the question have to ask yourself if it's time to buy stocks right now you're probably going to fall into bucket number two again what you're going to regret more if you do own or don't own stocks if you fall into number one then don't do anything right now wait for the monthly candle close because right now we don't actually have bullish confirmation why while we printed a lower low but we did not actually close a month out yet remember Nvidia also reports on the 28th so this Market's moving fast in this exact same bottoming process we're looking here on the weekly chart for the S&P which is also on the NASDAQ again breakdown expansion signal now what we need to see is for that to progress to the monthly time frames as of right now we got number one we got a fail breakdown but I would not argue there's an expansion signal quite yet why it's not there let's look back to previous times if we look right here uh it's not a fail breakdown but by closing over the candle High we get one two three more months of expansion same time here we get a corrective wave close over the candle High 1 2 3 four five months of expansion it's pretty simple don't overlook this it's really simple so as we try to finish a story off uh what else do we have here talked about July 17th remember when the market is up more than 10% of the middle of the Year 82% chance we're going to be higher roughly double digits and when we have more than 20 record highs in the middle uh midpoint of the Year 80% chance we're going to be higher it's a matter of how much so Tom Lee is basically saying we're in the middle of a multi-year bottoming process I've been talking a lot about how it's 1995 the vix is also showing us those same signals because there's no reason for the vix to spike this high this fast and then go all the way back down unless something else is happening like it's 1995 so everyone's talking about the Sam rule well what does Claudia have to say about the rule now let's read it she explains why the signal this time could be misleading but also why regardless of whether we're in a recession or not the FED must be on guard for a weakening labor market oh that sounds like bullish yeah it does the GDP print's not yet final so again I want to take that with a grain of salt 2% is still considered to be uh full full uh full GDP read this headline here this is from today August 18th busiest you port busiest us ports absorb import surge nearing again the lockdown era frenzy uh this does not sound like we're currently in a contraction or a recession this sounds bullish so in case it's not clear now let's go through a couple more charts because I really want to leave you with a simple story a lot of individual names are now back above their 50 dma look at the S&P here look at the NASDAQ that's two consecutive candle closes over the shortest time frame if we continue to make progress this week means we're going to be going higher just like the RSP did you look at iwm which is what Tom Lee talked about hey if we back test and fill the Gap just like on the smnp that's a back test to the 50 that's where we should find buyers and now as we think about higher time frame frames here I'm going to focus on the S&P and the NASDAQ hey great we're going up on the weekly chart we got a bottoming pattern we just need to see more progress which means closing green on the week by Friday and then we have to wait until the end of next month just like the Bears have to as of right now they've done number one but they failed to do number two they can still do it though we got to get back up above 537 for that to happen and they can still get us there drone Powell could be hawkish Nvidia could disappoint there could be things to take us lower I'm just not as confident for the Bears to truly win they need to win this month and they have to also win in September so what does that mean be patient like Warren buffit always says and with that said if you want to subscribe on the left thank you so much if not I'll see you at 9:15 and 9:30 a.m. on Monday thanks so much
Comments 0