저자: JustinCaron · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 SPY·QQQ 풋옵션에 대규모 베팅(약 7.3억~8.9억 달러 명목)했다고 보고, 자신은 주간 종가·50일선 이탈 여부를 기준으로 단기 하락 전환 가능성을 살피며 매도/관망을 고민한다. 다만 주간 고점 돌파 시 실패 가능성도 열어둔다. 나스닥·S&P500은 50일선 재돌파 신호가 아직 불완전하다고 본다. 결론적으로 명확한 방향 확신은 없고, 9월 FOMC 의사록과 주간 흐름을 확인하자는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
thank you hello YouTube we got a bounce today it is nice it is appreciated but we want to know whether or not this is a rip for selling so if the rip is here do we take advantage to sell it or do we buy we got a big short report update for Michael burry but first we're going to look at your seasonality chart because if we look nice and close we note that this is the period where we start to really go sideways I've been talking extensively about this 50-day moving average and how it cannot be lost what do we have high lower high very simple what do we have here we got a high higher high higher highs what does that mean well we can make progressively higher highs before we ultimately get our fat cell and then we close the month out by rallying that is what the seasonality chart really tells us here right go higher ultimately form our lowest closing low and then rally back up for the end of the month so as of right now I could see the still being attacked and there's a little bit more evidence because as we look here to q q or the q's we're now back above that 50 BMA so stay tuned and we're going to talk about the this one as well first of all we want to talk about Michael burry because he's making a sizable bed what do these eyes know that we don't bury famous big short but bearish option options on the spice talk and QQQ stock how much ah just a cool uh National Valley or we're talking about the value of the puts that he bought here of 730 39 million and also 886 million so uh that's going to be very interesting and let me just bring up this last graph here because I do want to compare it and I'm actually going to go through and try to identify that uh that strike that he is buying because uh it's not being disclosed a lot of people updated their their portfolios today but I think I found it so stay tuned and at the end of the video we will go through the big strike for the big Michael Shorey the big short but just before we do that I'm going to ask you for a huge favor if you can please consider smashing that thumbs up and subscribing to the channel that would be greatly appreciated and the reason I ask is because we do put out stock market videos every single day and we would just love to be part of our group group all right let's go in so we talked about uh let's now go to QQQ let's look at that seasonality chart and see whether or not there are any clues here right all right let's delete let's look Let's uh just first of all note here that we're actually closing above our 50 dma so what I noted on on the weekend was that well we're closing three daily candle closes below the 50 dma well now we got one back above if you remember what I said not that this is a a hard and fast rule it's more of a rule of thumb two daily closes below or above an average can generally signal a trend change this right here might have been a trap if we now close tomorrow green and then we also keep going green into the end of the week notably into Wednesday when we got those fomc meeting minutes so if we have a look here at the calendar and we think about okay well if we had a bearish narrative coming into this week but we're not seeing the evidence on the tape at what point do we know we're wrong well I would think that Wednesday close is going to be a very logical day for us to look at that we got the fomc meeting minutes coming out and uh other than that there's not really all that much data this week it really comes down to next week so if this week we're looking for some progressively higher highs where we go high a little bit higher a little bit higher but really don't very much don't make very much progress well yeah we could be going higher so today would be the first day then we got Tuesday then we got Wednesday so if the goal is to sell the rent at least now you know what we're looking for we don't want to be closing back above the 50 dma and what we definitely don't want to see is we don't want to see a hollow Candle by the end of the week if we look here nice and close if this is where we are right now well we closed the week out a little bit lower or basically unchanged what does that mean well if we're going to close Hollow that's one thing if we print a weekly high or high that's something different because now we're going to be back above that math number of 375.66 or roughly 376 last week's high 375.29 so if we manage to print a weekly higher high and close up there man that might have been wrong might have been a trap and that's the beauty about this Market is that the only thing that's for sure is that nothing's for sure so I'm actually grateful for the for the rep because I personally want to sell it right I want to sell the rent I want to get in I want to get in for that upside opportunity on going short and if we look here to the s p last week's high four five one point seven so we have an inside bar we don't have a higher high yet but if they go to a higher high like we're going to be back above this area look at the high of the week uh from last week four five one point seven so which means if we go to a weekly higher high we will be back over the math number I'm start to really I'm starting to question whether or not we're really going to get that bigger drop maybe the seasonality chart is the boss and that's going to drive us here but if we understand this template I've been talking about it a lot so if you're bored of it just tell me in the comments I would love to know Michael Murray thinks right now is the optimal time to get short right hundreds of millions of dollars in National value but we're going to find out what he's actually purchasing we'll keep this handy here for after all right here we go if we're gonna sell the rib what are we looking for well if this time is different uh it might be different but every time we follow the recipe of multiple weekly lower lows notably two with a weekly lower low closing below but the third candle was always red red red red that that's the correction here so if we now look close we can also understand that at parts during the week like here going back to March which is the period I'm kind of comparing to right now what happens Whoa We form a massive upper Wick so let's actually go to SPX here and see if we can find that chart SPX uh let's go to a one-way chart so we're pointing through these different areas here but as we're looking to uh March uh April 18th right here which I'm showing with yellow we go to a higher high but then man we crush it and we get a bearish engulfing candle so what does this mean it means during the part of the week the bulls look like they're winning right man they've got the higher high right they got the higher high here they print a weekly candle High might be hard to see but it basically just means that the wick goes over the previous candle but then it becomes a bearish engulfing by definition we have to go to a higher high we have to go to a lower low we have to close below the low that's how we get a bearish engulfing candle so like could that happen this week bearish engulfing absolutely what's a catalyst well I would assume it's going to be the FED minutes I don't know for sure though so that's what I'm unsure about that's the part that's missing here we have to go for a third consecutive week red we're only going to know that on Friday so for short do we have the balls to hold on till Friday no we're wrong are we willing to go through some pain or we look like we're a little bit bit silly but then ultimately are successful that's what I don't know so we don't know we're right we don't know if we should hold on there's a lot of I don't knows here right I wish I could give you a black uh black and white answer but what I can do again I'm going to do a plug here if you want to come join us for 14 free days and trade with me Justin from YouTube you can see exactly what is in my account what is in my portfolio and how I'm not saying well here's what I think I should do well here's what I am doing you can see exactly what I'm doing for 14 free days and if you don't like it quit Cloud quit cancel leave don't come back no hard feelings all right so if you're in grade only picked up one point I don't think that's enough for this percent uh gain on the date today but let's keep going forward there's a little bit of bullish news so here we're seeing that the first details of nvidia's RTX 50 Series black whale GPU is leaked online what happens man Nvidia is here to plunge the s p it is plunging it is plunging it is plunging that's the punch Protection Team or the anti-dip team they're here to buy the dip what's notable about notable about Nvidia too I think I mentioned it on Friday we back tested that one trillion dollar valuation and we're bouncing all right let's look at Nvidia let's see if it's still the boss yeah back above the 50 BMA here so we had three daily candle closes below exact same note on q q one day back above I don't think that's enough yet but it's an excellent start SMH not quite there so Nvidia is there QQQ was there spy is there but not everything is let's go to our list let's go to our below 50 dma list let's go through one by one uh oops QQQ check Apple nope not even below 2022 and 2021 highs so Microsoft same thing we're looking here at the red line so it's below the blue line it's below the red line not enough for me yet uh Nvidia back above it's the king there's news for it though thank you for sharing Liz uh Tesla nope SMH nope art nope Dax nope uh Emerging Markets hey it's uh held on to the 200 dma but nope um Nikkei nope so there's a lot of sad charts out there so if you want to understand the story very simply I'm gonna repeat myself again and hopefully you're gonna listen if the s p Falls below the 50 dma for two consecutive daily closes that likely means that QQQ is now falling back Below in videos below apple is still below Microsoft is still below the Dax is still below and the nikay is still below and the Emerging Markets are still below so if the US is the only game in town right now for major indices or indexes uh which is still above the 50.
man we better make sure we pay attention to this why staircase stop elevator down baby we don't want to be caught on that elevator down that is really going to hurt okay moving forward um so we understand the uh the backdrop right now and then the last thing I'll note here is that there is still less we're about halfway through the month uh give or take a day or two we're gonna pop back here to SPX we're going to look at our monthly chart and we're just going to see whether or not it's close enough or not so I would say that uh going back to this previous red our bearish engulfing candle but it does not close below the low that's different than what we have here we have a tight inside bar so technically the monthly is just in consolidation it's not actually broken bullish and it just bounced off this previous top four four five eight what's our low 4443 ah so that just looks like a bounce off the real bodies that's what it looks like to me so far half this month half of the the month is halfway through are we going to go downtown for the rest of the month or are we going uptown please make sure to let me know in the comments all right so that's the last part there and now here's the good stuff here's the Michael burry puts let's see if we can identify what he's been buying and this is through our platform so with that 14 free days you can also get access to this platform but anyways let's jump in and see what we got here so what we have to first of all notice that this is National value which just means it's the underlying evaluation of the market if he was to get in how many contracts did he buy uh uh The Firm let me just double check here I think it was 20 000.
I'm not sure if it's in this article here uh I know he has 20 000 contracts so anyways here's what I did I went here to spy which is what he's looking to short I went back to June one so here on the here we're showing option flow for June 6th to June sorry to August 14th basically going back to June until today we can look and see that oh my goodness 7.44 put call ratio that's Mr Michael burry we're going to click on put just to look at those puts might take a second to load because we're loading up quite a bit of data and we're going to sort by the premium right by the premium here so we click on premium it was already sorted by premium we'll give it a second here to load and what do we know just give me one more second here make sure it loads up all right well if he's buying 20 000 contracts we have to first of all try to understand what he's doing and I've watched him short Tesla before he goes deep in the money so you should already see what I'm looking for here I'm looking for um this I'm looking for anything that's unusual and I see something unusual here it's uh the 720 put on spy in a block that was uh this purchase for June 19th 2024.
if we go to the options chain here too man he's deep in the money right he's so deep oh my goodness so where's the puts here uh hold on is that not showing the right number here so 720 pull it let's go up to here hmm something's wrong with the open interest here but anyways these are basically so deep in the money I think this is him and the reason why I think it's him is because there's 300 and some dollars extra on top of here right roughly 300 bucks and we look at the premium here 16 million and we look back to the data started well they've been buying these 720s for quite some time there's a purchase let me just see if I can find it here uh where it started so 720 goes back here to um we're sorting by premium but these ones here go back to August uh sorry August 2nd let's just go to the top so we got uh here we got June 29th here we go July 19 July 20 July 12 July 20 June 29th July 7 every day they're like hey 10 mil 10 mil 10 million 10 million 10 million 10 million you can see the price that we're buying it at too they're buying it at 437 455 446.
so if we now uh just sort by spot we can also just note and see what he's actually been trying to get and for me with spy currently at about uh let me just go back to my YouTube list we're currently at about 448 which means he's been shorting lower than we are right now sorry spot so 459 459 458 right uh let's just go back here to the premium sorry sorry if you're bouncing around so much too I'm trying to do this on the fly so these were shorted at uh 455 452 446 438 440 428.
so I'm gonna call it around roughly where we are right now so Michael burry's put on a massive short I don't know if this is insurance or if this is more but that's the strike it looks like this just this has the fingerprint of Michael burry so it's the only thing that's unusual large enough to cover more than a billion dollar short and uh if you guys like I can go through that same analysis for QQQ tomorrow if not uh we now have our weekend video now kit up here on the left-hand side thank you so much for tuning in and if you have any feedback questions comments make sure to drop those and I will make an effort to look over all of them if not thank you so much for watching I look forward to seeing you
Comments 0