저자: JustinCaron/출연:JeremySiegel · 외국인
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Siegel은 강세장이 끝나지 않았으며 2~5% 조정은 가능하나 경기 둔화 신호는 없고 인플레이션은 완화될 것이라 봄. 진행자는 주간 저점 이탈 여부를 주시하며 S&P500 조정 시나리오를 제시하고, 달러 강세 지속 가능성·엔비디아 하락 경고 신호(주간 저점 891 이탈 시)를 언급. 파월 수요일 연설과 금요일 고용지표(시간당 임금 0.3% 이상 시 금리인하 지연 우려)를 핵심 변수로 꼽음.
다듬은 글
the bullish party continues on Wall Street with only one of the last 22 weeks actually closing lower these Bulls are strong they are loud and frankly they're in full control so the only weakness we had in the last 22 weeks is right here is this time going to be different or are we going to see more continued strength Jerome Powell did speak on Friday and uh the story looks pretty promising so we're going to go through and talk about exactly what he said I'm also going to walk you through my Keynotes including exactly what I'm looking for this week I'm going to go through all these so don't worry we'll Circle back and talk about them we have the key dates for the week and we also got some spy levels but the first thing I want to do which is going to help support my story here is actually watch a clip by Jeremy seagull who is the Wharton School of Business Professor let's watch that now it'll be about one minute so we do a little bit of a pullback well I wouldn't be surprised although I I still think the momentum is there will I I I still think this bull move is strong and has a ways to go uh yeah I mean you could have a little Corrections under the way kind of head fakes but uh you know I I think uh I think the news is strong I I think the inflation is going to be uh being reduced uh I saw a GDP estimate uh by the Atlantic fed just came out after the durable goods at 2.1% exactly the target of the Fed this year um so the economy is not showing signs of weakness and surprisingly uh 12mon earnings forward instead of usually they they they go down as the year goes on because they're often overestimate are actually rising in many circumstances so I still think yes we could have a two even a five% reaction but I don't think this uh this bull market is over well well let's talk really interesting this bull Market's not over so let's pick the story up because uh I think it's going to get very interesting this week so we're going to come back to that uh probably probably later this week but what he mentioned is that a two to 5% drop is what he would be looking for so this week we want to be receptive to a 1% drop which would mean a weekly lower low a 4% drop would be a monthly lower low and it would take an 8% correction or drop for us to go back down to our previous all-time high at roughly 480s so if he's correct fantastic the bull market continues we see more strength we go higher and we know exactly what levels to pay attention to this week so like I mentioned we will come back to the notes in a minute but what I want to do is pick up on the rest of the story that he was talking about because it's really a story of continued strength which means that what Jerome pwell had to say on Friday really mattered and he said that his inflation view stays unchange despite the recent data I'm going to ask you for a huge favor before we go further if you could please consider smashing that thumbs up in subscribing to the channel I would greatly greatly appreciate that so what I think what a lot of this comes down to is that the FED is basically declaring Victory as I showed you on the first slid and they don't see a recession which basically means soft Landing because if it's if recession is not going to come in the in the next couple of years uh there is no recession that's it we're over we survived and the bullish stocks narrative seemen seen as intact a after US inflation data the data that came in on Friday was core pce at 2.5 and headline pce at 2.5 hey previous numbers have revised higher but Jerome Powell did not seem phased um and the the interesting part about this is that I think what a lot of people have been talking about is higher for longer meaning higher interest rates for longer but it's really stronger for longer as Jeremy seagull just said right the US economy is exceptional it is the best in the world so the bullish stock narrative seen intact after US inflation data inflation view won't shift there you go mismatch between spending and income is worrying ah whatever we're always worried about something but this uh this this Rosy story is not the same around the world the Bank of Canada Deputy uh Deputy Governor or the number two says the country is facing a productivity em emergency why well my Canada uh my country sucks lately so not going to get into the details of that but this is really important because we've been talking about nvda being the leader of the global r valy notably in the US in this week we're seeing our first warning sign the hollow pattern is broken which means that if we now get a weekly lower low that would be another warning it's not going to take very much if we go below 891 this week that's going to be a weekly lower low and by closing at or near the low of the week the odds are just higher so what's going to happen we want to be very mindful of that we also have Jerome Powell speaking again on Wednesday and this is going to be at an event uh I did have it up but I remember what it is he's going to be giving an economic address so I think I actually have that typed up here here we go so Jerome Powell is going to be giving an economic Outlook at the Stanford Business um at Stanford Business government and Society Forum so he's going to talk about monetary policy but this week he pretty much already told us what he thinks we also note that the 10-year note has been going down even though it's green on the week here we note the head and shoulders and we do want to see continuation lower for us to get that momentum for the stocks to go up and that's pretty much it for the slides this week I did release a longer video yesterday which is a monthly summary really really encourage you to watch that and I'll leave it for you at the end of the video so we talked about what the us is going to do in terms of uh the inflation data we talked about that it seems like they're setting up for a rate cut it's going to be a matter of how many and as we talked about we went through that in yesterday's video we've been overbought since December down or sideways with time can burn off these overbought conditions so if we start going sideways and don't lose these key levels hey that just means the Market's strong we're seeing continued strength so lower lows with an s means that um that's the only way we're going to get a reversal S&P has 21 of 22 winning weeks in a row ever since October the better the Bears better show up otherwise these Bulls are going to keep punching us higher we we keep getting more charts going into blue sky breakouts as we did also review yesterday the warning sign for the S&P which will touch on later this week if it continues is going to be those four full candles in a row or closing lower in four consecutive sessions the first warning would be a weekly lower low um below 541 oh no sorry that's uh that's that's wrong I should probably delete that a 1% drop would print a weekly lower low below 517 a 4% drop would be a monthly lower low at 504 and an 8% drop would take us back down to the all-time high that's basically a correction 10% is a correction so if we get a baby cut right a flesh wound of one to three to four one to three to four percent that's fine we just go back down to a monthly lower low which we did talk about yesterday as well the dollar is giving us a bit of a warning it's closed three consecutive weeks over the 50 MAA which means that um this thing looks strong I'm not going to lie it's over the downtrend it's uh if it back tests and move higher um so far this year the Dollar's been going up with stocks but that is usually not going to continue we also talked about the 10-e note getting a rejection and we talked about Nvidia having a full candle so do we get a lower low is it going to hold are Apple and Tesla able to overcome their over oversold conditions now that quarterly uh the quarter is closed out and can they go higher if not we will need to see more strength more strength from names like RSP because equal weight means that we're seeing rotation and not net selling rotation is really important because people are not cashing their chips out and actually going out it means that they're rotating and again more details are on the video from yesterday the most important data point for the week is going to be on Wednesday when Jerome Powell speaks and then number two is going to be on Friday here forgot to note that when we get payroll unemployment and average hourly earnings the average hourly earnings could be a bit of a concern but we'll touch on those a little bit later this week did I have the uh article here here we go so if average hourly earnings increased to 0.3% that could cause a little bit of pause for the fed and for other people looking for those rate cuts to happen right away all right that's it for today's video so if you want to see the weekend Deep dive uh from yesterday that's now here on the left-hand side which means the monthly review if not I'll see you at 9:15 Eastern tomorrow thank you very much
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