저자: JustinCaron · 외국인
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나스닥이 엔비디아 급락(-10%)과 매그니피센트7 시가총액 약 9300억 달러 증발로 약세. 주간 저점 경신 가능성 높다고 주장하며 QQQ 주봉 약세 장악형 패턴 근거. 역사적 평균 하락폭 16%를 언급하나 과도한 하락 여부는 불확실. 테슬라 실적 미스 가능성, 나머지 빅테크는 상대적으로 양호할 것으로 봄. 금리·PCE 발표 주목.
다듬은 글
ouch this is really bad the NASDAQ is now only a few per off a complete meltdown which was largely driven by nvda which dropped by 10% on Friday or lost $190 billion doll in market cap and the losses get even worse when we look at the mega Caps or the mag 7 they've lost $930 billion since that March Peak another way of looking at this is that Wall Street was already expecting subd earnings or bad earnings so yes this looks bad as the title of today's video suggests when we look at nvda compared to the mag 7 without nvda there's not really much growth what this means is that investors are getting a little bit concerned and what I'm really wondering is whether uh this week we get a dead cab bounce and if we do is that just going to lead to a rejection on our head and shoulders which means we're going to go lower I think this is really important so what I want to show you is exactly my key for this week we're likely going to print a weekly lower low what does that mean well let's go over here to QQQ and let's look here to a weekly chart so we talked about this bearish engulfing weekly candle before and what this really means is that the losses are starting to accelerate but the rule of thumb is that when we close at or near a low of a candle we usually get follow through it's a very high probability so that's really what I'm referring to here we're likely going to print another weekly lower low the question is do we close below it now let me show you another pattern here because if we go to SPX this is where we have the potential keyword here being potential for us to form a bottoming pattern and then an expansion signal so what we're going to be looking for is going to be a failed breakdown which means that we actually go lower but then by the end of the week we actually close higher which basically just means that we close the weeko green because we're right here at the low of the week that seems pretty simple yes so we're looking for likely a lower low but do we close below it and this is going to be against QQQ which is currently I think going to go into an annual failed breakout because we only have to drop by basically two points and we lose this area it gets worse as we go lower so tell me exactly what this means stay tuned in today's video and I'm going to walk you through everything you need to know for this earnings week coming up we just talked about that $930 billion Wipeout those are big numbers do not ignore it it's the worst fall in four years ouch and we're already in correction so we see that the Russell is down by eight the NASDAQ by six the S&P by five and the Dow Jones by 4.5 yep it's getting pretty big we now have the worst week since October and Wall Street was already risk addicted as bad news piles up there might be some more geopolitical tension over the weekend but we're going to focus on earnings for today the S&P is heading for a rough patch as buyback black coat arrives yep it's been a pretty bad week all right so are dips normal yes they are we get 7 3% dips a year we get three 5% dips one correction so the question is how far down are we going to go the pattern I just showed you means that hey if this is the bottom we know exactly what pattern to look for this is easy that's what I like I like easy stories I like simple Stories the challenge is that when we looked here to this bearish engulfing Candle on the NASDAQ which is in Focus this week the average average declines I went through and did the before recording the video it's 16% so on average after this pattern forms we're down by 16% so I don't know if we're down by enough that's why these key areas are so important this week do not forget those all right so is it going to be a dip is it going to be a mild correction or a full-out correction I think that really matters another image here shows us that in election years we tend to chop into Memorial Day which means sell and May and go away but come back during the summer not back on lab we go higher so maybe we're in for a bit more of a rough patch here okay cool and these yields that just keep going higher and higher means that the six trillion dollars in U Market money market funds is not really supporting stocks as of right now only only 31 billion was taken out so man we need this money to start coming out otherwise the market might keep crashing which is why we're now down here into fear right we were in greed a month ago now we're back down into fear and we're racing down towards extreme fear so extreme greet to extreme fear extreme greet to extreme fear oh my goodness and now we're going to go through and explain what happened to these uh to these chip stocks but just before I do that I'm going to ask you for a huge favor if you could please consider smashing the thumbs up and subscribing to the channel I would greatly greatly appreciate that thank you for your support ahead of time so earlier in the week we heard from tsmc telling us that they have an Outlook sorry they have concerns on global trip Outlook cool and then I think it was the next day smci d as that skips earnings pre-announcement we talked about this on the video on Friday as well the AI company uh did not decide to pre-announce their fiscal results which they've done in every previous time it's an odd reason so there you go uh what happened man the stock went down by 23% lost a quarter of its value basically those are big numbers and tech stocks were already on track for their biggest weekly route going back to 2022 or their biggest weekly loss in 17 months are these losses going to accelerate because nvda down by 10 man that's a big slide we can't ignore it so let's make sure we understand what this means because the Magnificent 7 influence over the S&P has never been greater they're now basically onethird of the S&P so where Tech goes the S&P goes and as we look here we already mentioned that we were already expecting subdude earnings we got a negative reaction from JP Morgan even on a beat same thing with Netflix so this week's the big week we get most of the earnings reported here and then by next week or April 30th we will have the bulk of earnings out this just shows the number of companies reporting this week and next week really matter so when it comes down to Tesla on Tuesday meta on Wednesday Microsoft and alphabet on Thursday what are we expecting well here's the numbers I did the homework for you maybe you want to consider smashing that thumbs up and subscribing to the channel as a way of saying thank you I'm just joking if you want to smash it great if you don't no problem I appreciate your support anyway so Tesla is the only one expected to miss we're expecting a 16% miss here they got price cuts on the model y they're laying off staff man things look a little bit shaky over there they they laid it off 10% of their staff as well so Tesla's likely going to suck so the first half of the week hey we're likely going to get that lower low like I talked about but as we now shift gears s of look to the second half of the week notably meta Microsoft alphabet and then we also have some key dates I'll touch on these a little bit later here we got notably core pce coming in on Friday I'll get to those in a minute here but anyways if we're going to go down into the first half of the week how can we save the chart well we need these companies to deliver as I talked about on Friday as well so if this is going to be a bad Miss from Tesla I think guidance is going to really matter but I don't know rbo taxi or not I'm not sure it's going to be able to shake off that bad number these are just Whispers by the way too so they're not confirmed um when we look to meta though which reports next 4.4% beat I think the Outlook is going to really matter for meta looking to Microsoft here 3.6% beats right they're beats um around 5% nothing more uh but Google also looking for about 4% so collectively we have a suck with Tesla which is estimated or whispered and then meta Microsoft and alphabet hey they're probably going to come in better do we already have enough of a negative reaction with that 900 billion $930 billion Wipeout or is there more pain in store uh please drop me a comment and tell me what you think all right this also matters because short sellers actually went net long in a major way the most uh the most long they've been going all the way back to March of 2022 I don't know if I like that now shifting gears here to the economic data for this week we got Services PMI coming out on Tuesday we got GDP coming out on Thursday and we also have core pce coming in on Friday I want to focus on these two data points here because I believe they're fairly important so as I just mentioned first half of the week versus the second half of the week we don't just have earnings we got two really important data points GDP or growth and then core pce let's look at those a little bit close uh closer now so the fed's preferred inflation gauge gauge is set to back rate cut patience and I don't really understand the reason why so derome Powell looks like he's got a little bit of a Sour Puss here why well here's what Bloomberg tells us right feds preferred inflation gauge seen holding up well we're actually supposed to go down to 2.6 but it's the month over month number which looks a little bit hot here right 0.3 that compounds at roughly 4% per year so 2.6 is like pretty close to the fed's Target and the other reason why this is notable is because we're still getting pretty solid growth this is GDP now and it shows a 21% quarter over quarter growth for the official estimate we're looking for about 2.5% so I want to see where the number comes in inflation at 2.6 and GDP if it comes in at 2.8 man that's a soft Landing growth is higher than inflation that's good so will good news be good this week hey we're likely going to find out and what we're likely going to find out is whether or not this weekly heat map of everything down except for a few small blocks is going to change like it did here on uh on the on the daily chart where sorry daily heat map where we note that excluding the Magnificent 7 kind of cutting it off right here man everything kind of did good it was a stealth rally so as I mentioned pause the video if you want to see these numbers but we have numbers coming out here uh right really important and then Amazon is supposed to give us a 11% beat on the 30th Apple's earnings are not yet confirmed with a number okay so now tell me what this means because you mentioned the word stealth rally yes well on Friday the green team was pretty big volatility equal weight treasuries Dow Jones XLV XLF calf energy utilities New York Stock Exchange K IET BTC eth GC oil versus the momentum trade which here has been uh the mag 7 QQ the Dow Jones sorry the dollar the 10e note blah blah blah let's just focus on these mag seven stocks because what this really means is that we want to pay attention to the stocks that report earnings this week this is the mags mag 7 or the Magnificent 7 ETF what do we note here man volume usually precedes price that is fat red volume and we're pushing off the 50 and actually rejecting lower that's not good this is a precursor for what usually happens to price as volume increases as we're going down we usually go down more so now let's look at each one of these individually to better understand their setup going into earnings here we're looking at Microsoft the biggest of the pack it stopped going up we've lost our uptrend look for those green lines to see what we're looking for here and dominant red volume as we go lower so we're below the 50 we're below the uptrend and we're currently pointing down the question for this one is going to be whether or not the short-term drop will be enough as we go into earnings why let's look back to the LA let's look back to the last time they reported well we've basically gone nowhere I would argue we're going sideways so the last earnings release is about right here and look where we are now we're going to do one of three things which is the only thing stocks can do we can go sideways for longer we can go back up or we can go down so we're definitely in equilibrium here and I look at the warning signs because hey they're sticking out to me as we look at these next ones here well Apple already sucks we got a death cross and I hate to say it but this kind of looks like a massive M where we could be looking for more downside that's what m means we're already at a 52 we low and that red volume was a bit of a warning here so Apple's looking shaky uh we look to the next one here which is nvda well look it's got rejected here it's actually going down and it's got dominant red volume so without earnings coming out right away I think it's likely going to be a sympathy play for the rest of these Mega caps looking here to Google looking pretty good right here at Blue Sky territory uh this one looks good um our earnings too high though we have a lot of red sellers here right lots of red volume all right moving on to Amazon looks similar to to nvda stop going up it's below its 50 and um volume is dropping off here so we're finding equilibrium I think it's really just going to do what the other ones do but remember um we don't get earnings from Amazon until the 30th but they they they do move altogether Amazon's been particularly strong because this is only our first daily candle close below that 50 dma just like nvda right only getting its first daily candle close below remember when we get to two daily candle closes below we're likely forming a trend which is which which are those exact same mornings we went through on the daily and weekly for the S&P and for the NASDAQ you look here to meta yeah first daily candle closed below that 50-day uh as well we've also stopped going up so what's going to happen here uh if we go down for a gap fill that's like likely going to be very important meta might surprise us because I was noticing they had a really big AI play and a partnership with Google and a few other things so let's see what guidance says they also have that VR set VR headset which is going to compete with apple Tesla stinks it's now got a gap fill but man this stock has been so bad so what I'm watching for is whether or not more bad news on earnings is going to drag the stock lower or if we can actually start going sideways a lot of people even including Dan IES which which is a massive Tesla bowl is now saying uh This Is A Nightmare on Elm Street it's not looking good and that's it those are the mag s so with today's video now over I encourage you to watch the video on the leth hand side if not maybe want to subscribe to the channel and come hang out with me at 9:30 and 9:15 on tomorrow on Monday I'll go through more charts but otherwise thank you for tuning in and I'll see you on the next video
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