저자: JustinCaron · 외국인
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S&P500과 QQQ가 400·300선을 회복하며 단기 반등이 나왔으나, 주간 차트는 여전히 하락 추세로 본다. 금리 인상 기대와 연준 피벗 여부를 두고 시장 해석이 엇갈리며, 역헤드앤숄더 패턴과 380 지지 여부가 핵심 변수다. 시간외 옵션 콜 거래와 1시간 차트의 하락 쐐기 돌파를 단기 강세 근거로 제시했다. 장기 약세 시각은 유지하되 단기 상승 압력을 인정하는 혼합 입장이다.
다듬은 글
hello YouTube today this video is sponsored by the color green because we were looking for more relief and we got it these Bulls did it they broke us through our first downtrend we closed above 400 spy and QQQ are synced up once again s p is over 400 and Q Q is over 300. so let's give a round of applause for these bowls coming out of tech we've got uh Tesla out of Finance we got Bank of America out of healthcare we got DHR and all the rest of these and what else do we have green we got a lot there was a lot that happened today unfortunately we heard that uh the Queen of England has passed away and our thoughts and prayers are with everyone in uh in England but we also know that there was Christine the guard speaking Jerome Powell speaking and all of this data all came through too today uh what we're gonna try to do today is try to make sure we understand what is happening because now that we are now that we are back here at this 400 area what are we noticing saying oh my goodness we got two back-to-back green days when's the last time we had that oh no it was right before we got that big old fat fade right we got a big fat Fade Into Friday into Friday and now the question is are we going to repeat so what I want to try to focus on today is the evidence versus what we're seeing on the chart as mostly a follow-up to what we did yesterday again what are we noticing there's breadth third's depth but it's mostly focused into finance and health care if we look at the last one week performance again including roughly last uh last Thursday or Friday of last week too becomes a much more uh becomes much more clear Tech uh Tekken electronics are down right tech services electronic Technologies down almost everything else is green energy is basically unchanged the other things I really noticed is that as I scan across my assets here US dollar and Euro are at one uh they're at parity again we note that two-year yields are up ten year yields are up inversion is up dollars up S P's up QQQ is up fixes down otherwise we got gold down F Dax down we got Apple down down and every major ETF other than utilities emerging markets and China are green whoa so what does this mean what happened and what would we what would we have expected to see on the chart because this morning I shared a really big update with our team meaning our pre-market stream where I said that after the market opened uh we got positive data and positive data is to is supposed to be negative and going into the market open yes this initial jobless claimed was interpreted negative where we had a move down but the relief came back in that buyers showed up and we pop we bought it up so what this tells me is that uh good news is now unknown is good news good is bad news good I don't know anymore because up until like yesterday good news meant that the FED had to continue to hike and uh Jerome Powell had a q a dialogue today so we're gonna we're gonna try to provide an update here on the why bowler bear and uh why do I notice that we are still below the 50 weekly I'm sorry the bull case uh fed pivot I have a couple articles to actually talk about right now so let's flip two what Jerome said and I'm looking at uh four articles here which give us a different perspective but give us a story by the time we get to the fourth one jumbo rate hike uh rate hike is in place Powell sticks to his hawkish view ah okay hawkish view but a bullish reaction interesting fed Powell's hopeful inflation Can Be Tamed without paying a vulcer era yikes right he's trapped in his lips there he's like yeah tight butthole I'm not sure what I need to do am I loose enough am I tight enough I don't know right but he's all puckered up here so that's the second article third article says uh pal and again his lips are puckered up again here right yeah his job is tough right now right they're choosing these pictures on purpose Powell was looking well past the next inflation report Market bowls think next week consumer price index report will be the Catalyst that allows the Federal Reserve to turn less hawkish they better think again oh no so there is the story where I think we understand the reason why we're bullish they're looking at this report there is one more thing here this is uh now from September 6th 6th which was two days ago on Tuesday Goldman's head of Strat uh I think is he's the global macro Economist uh Economist uh hatsy as Jan hatsius sees encouraging signs that the economy could still achieve a soft land and could uh right hope um are these awards that we like to use on this channel the answer is no but we cannot fight the tape and the tape right now is pointing up so as we look to all of these headlines is the question is is the market uh misinterpreting the rhetoric once again that is what I don't know so as of right now there is still shallow recession which is possible the FED pivot is again baked in I don't know if it should be over the 50 dma well we're pretty close uh four oh 1.65 is that number so what the easiest way to try to think about this is now we understand where we're at on the weekly chart but since tomorrow is is tomorrow Friday yes it is tomorrow is Friday uh we're gonna look here to our weekly chart we are at the high of the week we are here at 400.7 and after hours 400.38 is a close which means that we are almost here to Resistance 2 which is our daily Gap our June 9 low R50 dma and is right around the last week open last week's open is at 402.2 as a reminder most volume happens at the open in the close what does that mean on the weekly chart that would be for Monday and for Friday so if we held the low we're near the open but what we had for the last two weeks was a notable slam again here's the Friday candles look at that fat bar right look at that fat one right here as well there's the uh yeah right here there's the Friday one it's the rejection off the 50 dma so what we had going into the Friday was two green days where we closed with higher highs and higher lows here we have one green day where we reverse and then puke it I don't know so if we're seeing a notable change in tone that uh good data can be positive and we note that we're right back where we were before there's all this liquidity inside of here and the big boys are back we moved fast we moved dirty today so if we're gonna get that change in tone I really want to see where this weekly chart closes out the closer we can close to the high of the week the more pressure is building up and the more that there is a bowl case being built I would also note that here on the thumbnail it should show there is an inverse head and shoulders so yes as of right now we're still maintaining an inverse Head and Shoulders that's a nice pattern but it means that we could still shoot down to 380.
so is 380 good enough for us to hold I don't know and the reason I say that is because when we go here to our weekly chart if we're not able to hold old roughly 3.95 for this week but closer to 399 sorry 398 to 400 for next week we're going to stop going up on a weekly closing basis and that means that the dominant trend is still down and this is just another dead cat bounce that's all it means I would love to see more green volume tomorrow but noting that this week is a shortened trading week so a better indicator for us would be by looking over to the e-mini Futures again there's one less session but this looks a lot better here compared to the previous weeks for volume so putting this all together to make sure we have an action plan for tomorrow because uh we both have a Friday stream for you to come to you and uh let me actually get that cute up here so you guys know if you don't already we do stocks every day which is why we're called stocks today tomorrow will be no different we stream for the final hour the stream is prepared here and you will have a great time with Mason tomorrow I'm gonna be away from my desk um so with that said let's move forward to the last parts of the show if we understand where we were from the weekend Deep dive we understand the FED pivot is baked in being unbaked being re-baked yeah we're Half Baked um shallow recession I don't know over 15 dma well that could get uh uncrossed this weekend 200 dma 50 50 weekly in sight well let's focus on the 50 dma first so that's what that's what I want to focus on the bear case yes everything here is still very strong so as much as I'm seeing short-term momentum the keyword being short term meaning daily charts the weekly charts are still screaming bearish however this chart right here is very similar to a chart I am looking at on on the hourly and what I notice we have a falling wedge or a pennant or a triangle so what this means is that inside of our hourly chart on ES or the e-mini Futures what do we have ah we got that same pattern inside of here that is correct and we actually held it I called that out into the close which means that we've now uh right today we pushed off of our our 200 to our 50 bounced over and we held it we actually back test and passed as well so right inside of here this is a key pass and it tells me that as long as this holds up we're looking for more not less the 50 dma is only like I don't know 50 more points away for us and they're trying to go for it they want it so if the Bulls are able to capture some short-term momentum I think it's going to be right now we have to recognize is that we're still inside of a wider pattern here which is a megaphone or a big funnel lower so as much progress as we're making we're still stuck in a massive range where every time we hit the top and the bottom Buy sell Buy sell sell sell sell I don't know we're getting closer to the resistance area and how we act as we get deeper into resistance will be very telling of where we're likely not a guarantee where we're likely gonna go next week something else which is really important to Moi or me is s p and QQQ being coordinated or synchronized here s p closing out at 400.4 basically closing out at 300.5 they're within 14 cents of being at the round number what does this mean it means the market is orderly it is moving in an orderly fashion so if we get an orderly move up or an orderly move down I don't particularly care the price action becomes much more clear with more volume and with the big boys being back yes the charts are getting easier to read and we're better able to decipher what the data tells us the last thing to look at because uh because tomorrow is going to be Friday is just actually got two more things I want to look at here so now we got some options data whoa right 420 Elon Musk would be proud those uh that's a hell of a lot of calls for tomorrow there's open interest as well and they were buying it up to 405.
we could push to 405 tomorrow is that what's gonna happen I don't know 402 ah and what's so interesting about this for me is that the volume is everywhere but what I want to focus on is this number right here the change uh this was shot just now so it uh I don't know uh 4 17 or just after mlc close um at four o'clock this was at 20 cents which means that as much volume as there was as much open interest as there was from the yesterday closed till today they only gained about 10 percent which means that's a lot of risk to hold on to just for 10 and now if they're gonna hold on overnight that seems even riskier unless they are convinced we're gonna close at we're near the high of the week what is that that mean for these 400s to get their money back we have to be at 400 plus the premium of two dollars and 20 cents we have to be above last week's open at 402.
do you see it now at 402.2 area yes that is exactly what those 400 calls are worth for tomorrow so if we're going to close um with them getting their money back it means we're going to be over last week's uh last week's open over the 50 and basically over our R2 pivot that gets us at a high of the week close that'd be pretty bullish now the last thing to look at is that this beer case is still very strong we're now going to go back in time to look at the reason why I was very bearish so these are inverse alerts inverse Russell inverse s p inverse Dia we got the dollar and we got tnx every one of these is an investment alert which is telling us that they're currently above all these prices so as long as we are above uh 23 15 34 106 and 287.
um the bear case is still really strong this is a back test however today in this week we had hundreds of Swing alerts which are coming through on the bull side which means that there is significant pressure building up on a shorter time frame which could feed through two continuation on an investment time frame so if you're interested in seeing what those alerts are I encourage you to just go to the link in the description or if you are a member I went through and laid out some some of my top ideas inside inside of the ideas Channel and if not um you can always ask for help you can always post on the help desk and otherwise I Wish You Beautiful People a beautiful end to the week I wish you a nice time with Mason tomorrow in the live stream and if you want to learn more about how we got prepared for this week or what we thought would happen going in into here I encourage you to watch the video that'll keep up here in a moment otherwise thank you so much for watching and I wish you a great end of the week thank you
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