저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 인플레이션이 '바위처럼 떨어질 것'으로 보며 S&P500 연말 목표를 5200에서 상향(5500 이상)하고, PER 확장 여지를 근거로 강세를 주장함. 진행자 Justin Caron은 7월 상반기 강세 계절성, 5600 목표 및 6200 상향 가능성, 7월 FOMC/실업률 등 이벤트 체크, 엔비디아 캔들 패턴으로 시장 추세 확인을 제시. 전반적으로 강세 시나리오 중심이나 551 이탈 시 약세 전환을 조건으로 둠.
다듬은 글
that uh 5,500 number but it doesn't necessarily reflect how you you think the year is going to end are you gonna take a look at your your end year end targets now uh we are Carl at this early December last year we thought S&P could reach 5200 this year which at the time was almost uh a 20% gain we've obviously moved well above it and the fundamental picture to me looks stronger I think earnings next year we originally thought would be 26 for 2025 it's probably closer to 275 I I think the war on inflation has been meaningfully better in terms of progress I know there's a lot of dispute but I think the last two inflation reports and the fact that 55% of inflation components are back to pre-pandemic levels means inflation's really going to fall like a rock these are factors that get give us comfort that multiples can expand and so I think 5200 is clearly too low um but I don't know how much above 5500 there is into your end so I think in a couple weeks we'll be addressing that you actually use there you go inflation's going to drop like a rock but what exactly does that mean for the stock market and where things could go that's exactly what we're going to talk about today if we look to spy or the S&P 500 we're currently up by 15% so far this year here's what's interesting when we're up more than 10% year to date in the middle of the Year our hit ratio for the end of the year is 82% and on average we go up by uh basically 8% and the meeting is 10 but this gets even better because when the S&P returns more than 20 or more all-time Highs at the midpoint of the year the ratio is also really good 80% hit ratio looking for either six or 10% which means the market could go dramatically higher or maybe it's 1995 as I've been talking about before so yesterday we went through and talked about the bearish scenario well here's the bullish one since 1928 the first 15 days of July have been the best two-e tra trading period for the year in equities and they start to fade after July 17th okay so what does that mean well it basically means that we could hit my target from December uh maybe in the first two weeks of July I was looking for 5600 as my target going back to December of last year and uh wow if we hit that Target maybe I'll have to ratchet it up to 6,200 which which was the mathematical number so this is looking very spicy and we'll come back and look at exactly what I think Tom Lee's mentioning regarding inflation dropping Like a Rock but he also mentioned multiple expansion well that's what we see here today we're looking at 30.8 for the pe4 tech stocks we could go up to 55.5 if we go to 2000 and then finally here the AI bubble forming not formed Nvidia is right now trading at 47 times forward PE and Cisco traded at 196 or uh hundreds of times lower so is it 1995 can we hit this 5600 Target and if so this will be particularly important because we hear from the big man this week Jerome I'm going to go through and explain my point of view really fast but it's a debrief from from yesterday so Jerome Powell is going to be speaking on on Tuesday but on Friday we're going to be getting unemployment I think again I think this is going to be important because look Jerome po speaks on Tuesday and then on Wednesday we actually close at 1:00 but at 2:00 after the market closes we get those fomc meeting minutes and then on Friday uh after we're closed on Thursday we're going to get non-farm payroll so what this basically means is that whatever Jerome says on Tuesday is likely going to be what carries the market for the week he'll be discussing Central Bank in 2024 Central Banking sorry and right now people don't feel rich because the Common Man CPI or the cost of things you need to buy like food energy shelter utilities Insurance they're going up faster than you're getting paid or the employment cost index so yes we're seeing progress on inflation we're seeing the first tick lower in a while and look right here if we go back to uh um the saying is that the first uh inflation Peaks uh into uh uh sorry it gets better as we go through the first quarter if we look here there's been no progress made basically since the beginning of the year if we go back to last year Well December January February March April nothing really happens until we get here to June June July August starts to drop like a rock notice notice that big decline there that's exactly what Tomley thinks is going to happen again so if it does it means we're probably going to be on target pretty soon here and we still have really strong GDP with uh a meeting happening in July on the 31st but then we have September and December to look forward to 40 potential cut so this is pretty much a goldilock scenario I'm goinat thumbs up or subscribing to the channel I would greatly appreciate that thank you ahead of time so I think Jerome is going to be a pretty happy guy I want to see what he says on Tuesday but um as of right now the market is pricing in a 58% cut so what if it is 1995 where fundamentally and technically the targets that I laid out at the begin beginning of the year are are now looking a lot more likely remember last time we rallied by 220% so if inflation drops like a rock and we knowe that the market still wants to go higher well why can't we go higher well we definitely can last thing I would note here is that we talked rising in the first uh few months of July well that means that we want to get above 551 or into a monthly higher high all that means is that the market is going to be in a blue sky breakout over resistance and we'll have an easier time continuing to go higher so if the first two months of July sorry first two weeks of July are going to be strong and we get above 551 all we're going to look for is the same pattern we've been looking at for a while a fail breakout if we get above 551 and hold it bullish if we get over 51 and lose it bearish very very simple okay well same thing for the daq so if the first two weeks are strong and then after that it's to be determined let's just be mindful of those dates and like I said we're going to have uh the fomc coming out after market close on Wednesday but then ironically with a July 17th date this is where I think it's going to get interesting Netflix kicks off earnings uh for big Tech on July 18th and then we got Jackson hle uh coming out later in August so whatever Netflix does uh kicking off earnings on the 18th is likely going to really matter here's what I want to see if we look at the last three months we know that yes outside of Mega caps meaning uh the biggest stocks in the world the Magnificent 7 there's not really been a a broad-based participation but if we look at the last one month ah it's getting better it's not good but it's definitely getting better so that's what I want to see more of and then finally if we look here to the pattern we looked at on the weekly chart um I think what's going to be very important is whether or not or not Nvidia is able to actually continue to form Hollow candles if we look here to our pattern let's just bring it back for one second this right here which means we had 11 consecutive Hollow candles in a row led to a really nice rally over here we've had eight so far so what this really means is that after we lost the area sorry after we lost that previous high or fail breakout just like we had happened here and has happened here as well this took four weeks and we declined by 20% over here we've declined by roughly 15 so far so it happened over the course of literally days and if we're going to see the move finish here's what I'm looking for I want to see us recapture this low I want to see this inside bar break bull why the first two weeks of July you're supposed to be the best ones of the year if that happens and we form another Hollow candle next week all we want to see is that pattern continue into here not a lot to really talk about beyond that so thank you very much for tuning in maybe you want to click the video on the left or subscribe on the right to hang out with me at 9:15 a.m. on Monday thanks so much
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