저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
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Terry Smith의 2023년 7월 반기 서한 요약: 메타는 상반기 최대 수익 기여 종목이었으나 주가 변동성은 있고 펀더멘털에 집중해야 한다는 입장. 아마존은 CEO Andy Jassy의 식료품 소매 진출(홀푸드 인수 연장선) 방향이 자신들의 투자 원칙(높은 자본수익률, 핵심 역량 내 투자)과 어긋난다고 판단해 전량 매도. 기술 대형주는 과거 성공으로 규모가 커져 경기 민감도가 높아졌고, 매출 성장률이 둔화(예: MS 작년 18%→올해 약 7%)되는 등 환경이 더 어려워졌다고 진단. 거시 환경(금리 수준, 경기침체 시점, 우크라이나, 대만 등)에 대해서는 예측하지 않으며 그에 기반한 투자도 하지 않는다는 입장. 기업의 장기 복리 성장 능력에 집중해 고품질 기업을 보유하는 것이 핵심 전략이라고 강조. 메타 주가는 과거 FCF 수익률 8.7%까지 떨어졌을 때 지나치게 싸거나 가치 함정일 수 있었으나 Smith는 싸다고 믿었다고 회고. 아마존 매도 배경: 2021년 7월부터 매수했으나, 식료품 소매 확장 추진에 대한 우려로 매도. 한편 Seth Klarman은 2023년 2분기 아마존을 매수·추가했다고 언급. 대상 자산에 대한 명시적 단기~중기 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hi everyone welcome to clone compounding where our mission is to learn from others in order to achieve Financial Independence in today's video let's take a look at the latest insights by Terry Smith a well-known value investor running the funsmith portfolio Mr Smith recently released his fund's semi-annual letter in July 2023 the most important aspect are the portfolio changes made by Mr Smith this includes selling or exiting Amazon as well as Adobe completely earlier this year let's take a deeper look fundamental performance meta first Mr Smith starts his letter by sharing that meta has been their biggest gainer in the first half of 2023.
he reminds us that at one point meta stock was trading at a FCF yield of 8.7 percent and at this level it was either too cheap or a so-called value trap Mr Smith strongly believed in meta being too cheap in the 90 100 range he reminds us that clearly meta's share price performance has been volatile but our primary focus should remain on its fundamental performance also He suggests that we all need to try to ignore the cacophony of noise from commentators which can be useless investing outside core franchise Amazon Mr Smith shares that the most noteworthy item of turnover so far this year has been the fun sale of Amazon which they had begun purchasing only in July 2021 the immediate cause of the sale was their concern over potential Capital misallocation by relatively new CEO Andy jassy Mr Smith shared that while starting out jassy listed down sound principles for Investments such as pip be big and capable of delivering good Returns on Capital B serve an area of the market in which consumers are not already well served C Amazon had to have a differentiated approach to competitors and D Amazon had to have or be able to acquire competence to execute these principles provided quite some comfort to Mr Smith is purchasing a stock that they had shied away from before for years however it is always easier to top the top than it is to walk the walk in the CEO Andy jassy's pronouncement that he wanted Amazon to seek roots to get bigger in grocery retail ran counter to all these principles in Mr Smith's View Grocery retail has none of these characteristics and Amazon has already stubbed its toe in this sector with the Whole Foods acquisition Mr Smith's view is that where companies choose to invest outside a powerful core franchise in which they already have expertise he believes they are likely to destroy value and especially so where they are entering a sector which already has poor returns this led them to exit Amazon interesting to note that while Mr Smith fully exited Amazon another legendary value investor Mr Seth clarman purchased and added Amazon in Q2 2023 we'll share more about that in the upcoming video look back in forward Outlook the past six months have seen a Slowdown in Revenue growth from technology companies in their portfolio large technology companies have in a since become victims of their own success their growth over the past decade means that they are now such a large part of the economies in which they operate that they have become inevitably more cyclical at the time of the 2008-2009 recession Apple Microsoft alphabet and meta had combined sales of 125 billion dollars today Apple generates three times that number on its own in the combined sales of these four companies are as near as one trillion dollars as a result the economic slowdown means that where Microsoft grew sales at 18 last year we are looking at more like seven percent this year similarly for other tech companies to sum up conditions are tougher and our companies are mostly having to cope with slower Revenue growth and or higher input costs however that's what happens from time to time so we are mostly relaxed about it turning from company fundamentals to the macro environment what level of interest rates will be required to tame inflation we don't know will there be a recession of course but we have no idea when what will happen in Ukraine we haven't a clue will China take action over Taiwan and how will the United States respond we have no View even if we had we are not sure how markets would react fortunately it continues to be the case that we do not invest on the basis of our predictions about macroeconomics and geopolitics whilst we await the outcome of these economic and geopolitical conundrums we will seek to continue to do what we set out to do which is to assemble a portfolio of high quality companies and hold on to them so that their inherent ability to compound in value will determine how we perform over the long term for now that's it from us hope you enjoyed and learned from this video smash that like button and subscribe to receive more videos on memos and write-ups from top investors thanks for watching
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